With every passing week, sportsbooks adjust their season-long over/under NFL win totals for each team. Projected elite teams like the Tampa Bay Buccaneers had football win totals odds set around 11.5 wins before the season starts, while cellar-dwellers like the New York Jets had season-long over totals of around 5.5 wins. Check out live NFL win totals odds for all 32 teams below.
We will also dish out NFL season-long win totals betting analysis for each team below the odds table.
NFL win totals
Win totals for the 2022 NFL season have been posted at legal sportsbooks. Check them out below and click to bet now.
Over/Under win totals shown below are the best available prices on the over.
Arizona Cardinals: Over/Under
The Cardinals (4-12) are listed as 14-point underdogs in their finale at San Francisco, which will be J.J. Watt’s final game per his announcement of retirement.
Atlanta Falcons: Over/Under
The Falcons (6-10) no longer get a chance to spoil Tampa Bay’s division title hopes, but will still be gunning for a win to build up rookie QB Desmond Ridder.
Baltimore Ravens: Over/Under
The Ravens (10-6) are in danger of losing the top AFC Wild Card spot to the Chargers, and they might still have a chance to win the AFC North depending on the stakes involved in their finale against the Bengals.
Buffalo Bills: Over/Under
The Bills (12-3) are scheduled to host the Patriots in Week 18 with a chance to eliminate their rivals from contention.
Carolina Panthers: Over/Under
The Panthers (6-10) had a chance to bury the Bucs, but couldn’t stop Tom Brady and Mike Evans down the stretch. They’ve been eliminated from contention and are listed as 4-point underdogs at New Orleans in Week 18.
Chicago Bears: Over/Under
The Bears have dropped a franchise-record nine straight games and are listed as slight underdogs ahead of their finale against the visiting Vikings.
Cincinnati Bengals: Over/Under
The Bengals (11-4) have won 9 of their last 10 games and have the inside track to win the AFC North for a second straight season.
Cleveland Browns: Over/Under
The Browns (7-9) are listed as 3-point underdogs ahead of their finale in Pittsburgh as they look to officially eliminate the Steelers from playoff contention.
Dallas Cowboys: Over/Under
The Cowboys (12.5 wins) still have a slight chance to win the NFC East if the Eagles happen to drop a third straight game. There is enough motivation for Dallas to play its starters in their finale at Washington.
Denver Broncos: Over/Under
The Broncos looked better after moving on from Nathaniel Hackett and will play one more game under interim HC Jerry Rosburg with the Chargers (-3) coming to town.
Detroit Lions: Over/Under
The Lions (8-8) will take on the Packers on Sunday night and will only have a shot to make the playoffs if the Seahawks lose to the Rams earlier that day.
Green Bay Packers Over/Under
The Packers (8-8) will be watching the Seahawks game with interest as well, since all they have to do is beat the Lions at home if Seattle wins on Sunday afternoon.
Houston Texans Over/Under
The Texans (2-13-1) seem destined to finish with two wins this season, with their biggest triumph coming in a cathartic victory over the Titans.
Indianapolis Colts Over/Under
The Colts (5.5 wins) have looked completely inept over their last few losses and heads will likely roll if they’re unable to beat the Texans in their finale.
Jacksonville Jaguars Over/Under
The Jaguars (8-8) are favored by nearly a touchdown ahead of their Saturday night game against the Titans that will decide the AFC South champion.
Kansas City Chiefs Over/Under
The Chiefs (13-3) wrapped up a seventh straight division crown weeks ago and will look to dispatch the Raiders (+9.5) in their finale on Saturday afternoon.
Las Vegas Raiders Over/Under
The Raiders (6-10) gave the 49ers a great run for their money with Jarrett Stidham under center and will see what Stidham can do against the Chiefs in Week 18.
LA Chargers Over/Under
The Chargers (10.5 wins) continue to roll with a postseason berth clinched and they have the potential to move past the Ravens with one more win.
LA Rams Over/Under
The Rams (5-11) are listed as 6.5-point underdogs in Seattle this week and will look to bounce their division rivals from the playoffs.
Miami Dolphins Over/Under
The Dolphins (8.5 wins) have lost five straight games and will be without Tua Tagovailoa (concussion) and possibly Teddy Bridgewater (finger) in their finale against the Jets.
Minnesota Vikings Over/Under
The Vikings (12.5 wins) came out flat in Green Bay in Week 17 and are not expected to play for much in Chicago next week with their playoff position pretty much determined.
New England Patriots Over/Under
The Patriots (8-8) are in the hunt for a Wild Card berth and still have an outside chance to make the playoffs even if they lose their finale in Buffalo.
New Orleans Saints Over/Under
The Saints (7-9) pulled off a miraculous win in Philadelphia last Sunday and will look to end their season on a high note by beating the Panthers in Week 18.
New York Giants Over/Under
The Giants (9.5 wins) are in the playoffs for the first time since 2016 and will look to sharpen their swords by playing the Eagles tough in their finale.
New York Jets Over/Under
The Jets (7-9) are out of Wild Card contention, but will revel in the opportunity to knock the Dolphins out of playoff position in Week 18.
Philadelphia Eagles Over/Under
There is a chance Jalen Hurts (shoulder) returns for the Eagles finale against the Giants, which could help them clinch the NFC East by snapping a two-game skid.
Pittsburgh Steelers Over/Under
The Steelers (8-8) have come back from the dead to the fringe of the playoff picture and they will hope to beat the Browns at home this week while the Pats and Dolphins both lose.
San Francisco 49ers Over/Under
The 49ers (12.5 wins) are still alive for the top seed in the NFC and they have a relatively easy task in Week 18 with the injury-depleted Cardinals visiting.
Seattle Seahawks Over/Under
The Seahawks (8-8) can beat the Rams on Sunday afternoon, but would then need the Lions to beat the Packers to make the playoffs. However, the Lions would have no motivation to win if Seattle wins, other than spoiling Green Bay’s playoff hopes.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers Over/Under
The Bucs (8-8) clinched the NFC South with a comeback win over Carolina and are likely to rest some veterans in their finale against the Falcons.
Tennessee Titans Over/Under
The Titans (8.5 wins) rested Derrick Henry (hip) and other key players last Thursday night to prepare them for a crucial Saturday night tilt at Jacksonville that will determine the AFC South champion.
Washington Commanders Over/Under
The Commanders (7-8-1) can’t make the playoffs with a win, so they will give Taylor Heinicke one more shot to captain their offense in their finale against Dallas.
Here is a look at what NFL win totals looked like at DraftKings Sportsbook on Aug. 22, just a few weeks before the start of the 2022 regular season.
| Team | Projected Win Total | Over Price | Under Price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Tampa Bay Buccaneers | 11.5 | Over 11.5 (+110) | Under 11.5 (-130) |
| Buffalo Bills | 11.5 | Over 11.5 (-140) | Under 11.5 (+120) |
| Green Bay Packers | 11 | Over 11 (-110) | Under 11 (-110) |
| Kansas City Chiefs | 10.5 | Over 10.5 (-120) | Under 10.5 (+100) |
| LA Rams | 10.5 | Over 10.5 (+105) | Under 10.5 (-125) |
| Dallas Cowboys | 10 | Over 10 (-110) | Under 10 (-110) |
| San Francisco 49ers | 10 | Over 10 (-110) | Under 10 (-110) |
| LA Chargers | 10 | Over 10 (-140) | Under 10 (+120) |
| Cincinnati Bengals | 10 | Over 10 (+100) | Under 10 (-120) |
| Denver Broncos | 10 | Over 10 (-110) | Under 10 (-110) |
| Indianapolis Colts | 10 | Over 10 (-105) | Under 10 (-115) |
| Baltimore Ravens | 9.5 | Over 9.5 (-160) | Under 9.5 (+130) |
| Philadelphia Eagles | 9.5 | Over 9.5 (-150) | Under 9.5 (+125) |
| Tennessee Titans | 9 | Over 9 (-105) | Under 9 (-115) |
| Miami Dolphins | 9 | Over 9 (+110) | Under 9 (-120) |
| Minnesota Vikings | 9 | Over 9 (-130) | Under 9 (+110) |
| Arizona Cardinals | 8.5 | Over 8.5 (-110) | Under 8.5 (-110) |
| Las Vegas Raiders | 8.5 | Over 8.5 (-130) | Under 8.5 (+110) |
| New England Patriots | 8.5 | Over 8.5 (-120) | Under 8.5 (+100) |
| Cleveland Browns | 8.5 | Over 8.5 (+110) | Under 8.5 (-140) |
| New Orleans Saints | 8.5 | Over 8.5 (-105) | Under 8.5 (-115) |
| Washington Commanders | 8 | Over 8 (+100) | Under 8 (-120) |
| Pittsburgh Steelers | 7.5 | Over 7.5 (+100) | Under 7.5 (-120) |
| New York Giants | 7 | Over 7 (-110) | Under 7 (-110) |
| Chicago Bears | 6.5 | Over 6.5 (+150) | Under 6.5 (-190) |
| Jacksonville Jaguars | 6.5 | Over 6.5 (+110) | Under 6.5 (-130) |
| Detroit Lions | 6.5 | Over 6.5 (-125) | Under 6.5 (+105) |
| Carolina Panthers | 6.5 | Over 6.5 (-110) | Under 6.5 (-110) |
| Seattle Seahawks | 5.5 | Over 5.5 (-125) | Under 5.5 (+105) |
| New York Jets | 5.5 | Over 5.5 (-160) | Under 5.5 (+130) |
| Atlanta Falcons | 5 | Over 5 (+125) | Under 5 (-145) |
| Houston Texans | 4.5 | Over 4.5 (+100) | Under 4.5 (-120) |
Best football betting sites
Check out the best NFL betting sites below.
Last season’s NFL win totals
A look at the projected season over/under win totals for each team in the league from the pre-season from last year. The totals were from DraftKings Sportsbook (Sept. 7).
| Team | Win Totals Over Unders |
|---|---|
| Kansas City Chiefs | 12.5 wins |
| Tampa Bay Buccaneers | 12 wins |
| Baltimore Ravens | 11 wins |
| Buffalo Bills | 11 wins |
| Cleveland Browns | 10.5 wins |
| LA Rams | 10.5 wins |
| San Francisco 49ers | 10.5 wins |
| Green Bay Packers | 10 wins |
| Seattle Seahawks | 10 wins |
| New England Patriots | 9.5 wins |
| LA Chargers | 9.5 wins |
| Miami Dolphins | 9.5 wins |
| Indianapolis Colts | 9 wins |
| Dallas Cowboys | 9 wins |
| Tennessee Titans | 9 wins |
| New Orleans Saints | 9 wins |
| Minnesota Vikings | 8.5 wins |
| Pittsburgh Steelers | 8.5 wins |
| Denver Broncos | 8.5 wins |
| Arizona Cardinals | 8.5 wins |
| Washington Commanders | 8.5 wins |
| Carolina Panthers | 7.5 wins |
| Chicago Bears | 7.5 wins |
| Atlanta Falcons | 7.5 wins |
| New York Giants | 7 wins |
| Las Vegas Raiders | 7 wins |
| Cincinnati Bengals | 6.5 wins |
| Philadelphia Eagles | 6.5 wins |
| Jacksonville Jaguars | 6.5 wins |
| New York Jets | 6 wins |
| Detroit Lions | 4.5 wins |
| Houston Texans | 4 wins |
How to bet win totals
Sports bettors had to do some major adjusting ahead of last season. Teams played 17 games each in the regular season for the first time. Most impacted from a betting perspective is the always-popular NFL Win Totals market.
No longer will teams finish the regular season with 10-6 or 5-11 records. Instead, 10-6 could turn into 11-6, and 5-11 could turn into 5-12. An extra game has had a big impact on projecting how many games a team will win and lose.
Still, over – under bets are one of the more straightforward futures wagers available. Moreover, since they involve handicapping a team’s outlook for the coming season, they’re appealing even to novice bettors, considering NFL fans typically have strong opinions on each team in the league.
Win totals bets fall under the category of a “futures” bet. As their name implies, futures bets are wagers placed on events that won’t be “settled” until a future date. For example, in the case of win totals bets, the wagers are based on the number of victories a team is projected to garner in the coming regular season of that particular sport. The wagers are made available before the start of that regular season and therefore require a certain amount of research on the part of the bettor in terms of a team’s prospects before a decision is made.
How oddsmakers set win totals
In a win totals bet, the oddsmaker sets a number for the projected amount of victories a team will garner in the coming season. A bettor then decides whether they want to place their money on the team, either failing to meet or exceeding that threshold. Either side of the bet will have odds assigned to it that determine the rate of payout if the wager is successful.
The odds are represented in the form of a number with a “-“ or “+” next to them. These denote the rate at which a bettor will be paid out if the wager is successful. As a rule of thumb, the number with a “-“ next to it represents the amount of money a bettor would need to risk to win $100. Conversely, a number with a “+” attached represents the amount of money a bettor would win for every $100 wagered. To illustrate further, let’s use a $10 bet as an example.
NFL win totals example
Let’s suppose the New York Giants are assigned a projected win total of seven victories for the 2022 season. For this first example, we’ll assume the oddsmakers have assigned either side of the bet -110 odds. That means that whether you bet on the Giants falling short of or exceeding seven wins, you’ll have the same rate of payout if your bet is successful. In this case, with the bet having -110 odds all the way around, the $10 bet would pay out a profit of $9.09. The bettor would therefore receive a total of $19.09 in return (the original $10 wagered plus the profit amount).
Utilizing the same wager, let’s say oddsmakers have instead made the odds for the Giants finishing over seven wins at +120 and left the under side of the wager at -110. In this case, bettors putting faith in New York taking a sizable leap forward next season and exceeding seven wins would realize a $12 profit if their side of the bet is correct. The better would therefore receive a total of $22.00 in return (the original $10 wagered plus the profit amount).
Where to find win totals bets at online sportsbooks
As mentioned earlier, win totals bets fall under the umbrella of futures bets. They are not difficult to locate within online sportsbooks.
Typically, a bettor first navigates toward the off-season sport they wish to place a win totals bet for. In the case of NFL wins totals bets, the bettor would then look for an “NFL Futures” tab within the NFL section. The win totals bets are often further segregated under a “Team Futures” tab and a “Regular-season Wins” sub-section.
It’s also worth noting that in the early stages of the offseason, not every online sportsbook has win totals bets readily available. Some wait until the dust settles on important events, such as the NFL Draft, before rolling out their projected totals.
Strategy for betting NFL win totals
Line shopping
As is the case with most any purchase, being a smart and patient shopper when placing a wager can pay off nicely over time. The commodity one is evaluating/looking for the best price on when betting projected win totals is the projected number of wins that is set (likely to have low-to-no variance across most sportsbooks) and its corresponding odds (more likely to have variance across sportsbooks).
As an example, say Sportsbook A sets the Jacksonville Jaguars’ win total at 6.5 wins. The odds for under 6.5 wins are set at -110, while the odds on over 6.5 wins are set at +110. Meanwhile, Sportsbook B places the odds of under 6.5 wins at -120 and odds on over at +120.
In such an instance, a bettor wishing to bet under 6.5 wins would be best served going to Sportsbook A (as -110 odds offer a more favorable payout than -120) and one wishing to bet over 6.5 wins would be best served going to Sportsbook B (since +120 odds offer a more favorable payout than +110).
Recency bias
The concept of “recency bias” can be a confounding factor in any endeavor that involves placing money on sporting events. (i.e., not just in sports betting, but in daily fantasy sports as well, for example). Recency bias is the concept of allowing recent performances of a team/player to affect a current wager.
This concept is straightforward to illustrate with respect to win totals bets. One good example is the case of the 2020 New England Patriots. The Pats total was 8.5 wins. A bettor allowing recency bias to creep in would go by the Patriots’ long stretch of dominance (17 straight seasons of double-digit wins prior to the 2020 season) in placing a bet on New England exceeding that figure.
However, since Tom Brady decided to bolt Foxboro, and with Bill Belichick dealing with a depleted roster – the Patriots wound up going 7-9.
Inflated lines
The concept of “inflated lines” ties into recency bias to a large extent, as the latter often helps lead to the former. Inflated lines are the byproduct of the betting public heavily favoring one side of a bet over the other. Many times, that’s a result of the public allowing recency bias to affect their betting decisions.
To further explain, oddsmakers initially set a line where they estimate equal action on either side of the wager. However, once the line is released, its future movement will largely be determined by how much money is coming in on each side. When betting decisions heavily influenced by recency bias are being made by a large percentage of the public, this can lead to inflated lines that can be ripe for exploitation by a smart bettor.
The aforementioned case of the 2020 Patriots is a textbook example. And the same could apply to a number of teams that underwhelmed last season (see examples in the first section). Or, this could apply to teams that underperformed for the last several seasons. However, these teams can experience exponential improvement due to the ability to add multiple impact players this offseason. Together with the ongoing development of current pieces, these factors are not fully accounted for in the market.
In examples such as these, “fading the public” is a strategy to consider. Especially if the odds and research for the less popular side of the wager justify the investment.