NFL betting markets are being closely monitored on a daily basis with the regular season beginning to wind down. NFL Win Totals odds have been posted by top sportsbooks. Teams projected to be elite, like the Super Bowl champion Kansas City Chiefs, have around a 12.5 season long win total projection. A projected lowly team, like the Arizona Cardinals, will have a mark of 4.5 wins or so. Check out live NFL win totals odds for all 32 teams below.
We will also dish out NFL season-long win totals betting analysis for each team below the odds table.
NFL win totals
Win totals for the 2023 NFL season have been posted at legal sportsbooks. Check them out below and click to bet now.
Make sure to also look at the latest football betting promotions from the top sportsbooks.
Over/Under win totals shown below are the best available prices on the over.
Arizona Cardinals: Over/Under 4.5 (+100)
The Cardinals are rebuilding this season with Kyler Murray rehabbing after ACL surgery.
Atlanta Falcons: Over/Under 9.5 (-110)
Desmond Ridder has struggled early in the season and opponents are selling out to stop the Falcons rushing attack.
Baltimore Ravens: Over/Under 9.5 (-145)
Lamar Jackson and the Ravens are adjusting under new OC Todd Monken in a spread-based attack.
Buffalo Bills: Over/Under 10.5 (-130)
The Bills are looking to hold off the explosive Dolphins and feisty Jets to win a fourth straight AFC East crown.
Carolina Panthers: Over/Under 4.5 (-110)
Bryce Young is getting all the reps he can handle in his rookie season and the Panthers defense has been diminished by injuries.
Chicago Bears: Over/Under 4.5 (+100)
With Justin Fields (thumb) banged up, the Bears stand little chance of stringing wins together.
Cincinnati Bengals: Over/Under 8.5 (+130)
Joe Burrow continues to work his way back from a calf strain and the Bengals defense is improving with new safeties in place.
Cleveland Browns: Over/Under 9.5 (+130)
The Browns defense has been elite, which has helped them deal with Deshaun Watson’s absence due to a shoulder injury.
Dallas Cowboys: Over/Under 10.5 (-110)
The Cowboys have struggled in pass defense with multiple cornerbacks injured.
Denver Broncos: Over/Under 4.5 (-140)
The Broncos defense is allowing the most points and yards per game and the offense hasn’t been good enough to win games under Sean Payton.
Detroit Lions: Over/Under 10.5 (-114)
The Lions have been dominating lesser opponents on both sides of the ball despite dealing with a number of key injuries.
Green Bay Packers: Over/Under 8.5 (+110)
Jordan Love regressed quickly after starting the season with a couple of solid performances.
Houston Texans: Over/Under 7.5 (-122)
Demeco Ryans has turned Houston’s defense into an above-average unit and CJ Stroud is showing incredible poise as a rookie.
Indianapolis Colts: Over/Under 7.5 (+100)
Anthony Richardson (shoulder) will miss multiple weeks or opt for season-ending shoulder surgery.
Jacksonville Jaguars: Over/Under 9.5 (-135)
The Jaguars seemed to get on a roll in London and remain the favorites to win the AFC South.
Kansas City Chiefs: Over/Under 12.5 (-130)
The Chiefs continue to grind out wins by leaning on an impressive defense and the magic of Patrick Mahomes.
Las Vegas Raiders: Over/Under 6.5 (-115)
The Raiders have been inefficient running the ball and might be without Jimmy Garoppolo (back) for an extended period.
LA Chargers: Over/Under 9.5 (+130)
The Chargers are getting healthier with Austin Ekeler (ankle) back from an early-season injury.
LA Rams: Over/Under 7.5 (-114)
Cooper Kupp (hamstring) has returned to his elite form and Matthew Stafford is thriving in his 15th season.
Miami Dolphins: Over/Under 11.5 (+104)
The Dolphins have the most impressive offense in the NFL with speed moving all over the formation.
Minnesota Vikings: Over/Under 6.5 (+110)
Justin Jefferson (hamstring) has been placed on IR and the Vikings will have a tough time competing against elite teams without their top receiver.
New England Patriots: Over/Under 5.5 (+145)
The Patriots are facing the toughest schedule in the NFL this year and have the lowest-scoring offense with Mac Jones under center.
New Orleans Saints: Over/Under 9.5 (+125)
The Saints are playing elite defense and struggling to limit turnovers offensively.
New York Giants: Over/Under 5.5 (+120)
Daniel Jones (neck) took a whopping 16 sacks in two weeks before being forced out of action due to injury.
New York Jets: Over/Under 5.5 (+110)
The Jets are riding Breece Hall and an elite defense to hide Zach Wilson.
Philadelphia Eagles: Over/Under 12.5 (-140)
The Eagles remain physically dominant in the trenches, but their passing game has sputtered without former OC Shane Steichen.
Pittsburgh Steelers: Over/Under 8.5 (-122)
While the Steelers offense has been pedestrian, T.J. Watt and the defense have played a vital role in their wins.
San Francisco 49ers: Over/Under 13.5 (+106)
The 49ers are Super Bowl favorites with elite talent on both sides of the ball.
Seattle Seahawks: Over/Under 8.5 (-102)
The Seahawks have struggled in pass defense and are one of the worst red zone teams on both sides of the ball.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers: Over/Under 8.5 (+125)
The Bucs haven’t been very impressive on offense with a limited rushing attack.
Tennessee Titans: Over/Under 7.5 (+110)
The Titans lost seven straight games after Ryan Tannehill suffered an ankle injury last year and their QB got hurt again in London.
Washington Commanders: Over/Under 6.5 (+110)
Sam Howell is on pace for a record-setting number of sacks in his first full season as starter.
| Team | Projected Win Total | Over Price | Under Price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Kansas City Chiefs | 11.5 | Over 11.5 (-105) | Under 11.5 (-115) |
| San Francisco 49ers | 11.5 | Over 11.5 (+110) | Under 11.5 (-130) |
| Cincinnati Bengals | 11.5 | Over 11.5 (-105) | Under 11.5 (-115) |
| Philadelphia Eagles | 10.5 | Over 10.5 (-150) | Under 10.5 (+120) |
| Jacksonville Jaguars | 10.5 | Over 10.5 (+115) | Under 10.5 (-140) |
| Buffalo Bills | 10.5 | Over 10.5 (-140) | Under 10.5 (+115) |
| New York Jets | 9.5 | Over 9.5 (-130) | Under 9.5 (+110) |
| Dallas Cowboys | 9.5 | Over 9.5 (-125) | Under 9.5 (+105) |
| New Orleans Saints | 9.5 | Over 9.5 (+105) | Under 9.5 (-125) |
| Detroit Lions | 9.5 | Over 9.5 (-150) | Under 9.5 (+120) |
| Cleveland Browns | 9.5 | Over 9.5 (+115) | Under 9.5 (-140) |
| Miami Dolphins | 9.5 | Over 9.5 (+100) | Under 9.5 (-120) |
| Los Angeles Chargers | 9.5 | Over 9.5 (-125) | Under 9.5 (+105) |
| New York Giants | 8.5 | Over 8.5 (+105) | Under 8.5 (-125) |
| Denver Broncos | 8.5 | Over 8.5 (-110) | Under 8.5 (-110) |
| Pittsburgh Steelers | 8.5 | Over 8.5 (-120) | Under 8.5 (+100) |
| Seattle Seahawks | 8.5 | Over 8.5 (-105) | Under 8.5 (-115) |
| Baltimore Ravens | 8.5 | Over 8.5 (-150) | Under 8.5 (+120) |
| Minnesota Vikings | 8.5 | Over 8.5 (-130) | Under 8.5 (+110) |
| New England Patriots | 7.5 | Over 7.5 (-120) | Under 7.5 (+100) |
| Carolina Panthers | 7.5 | Over 7.5 (-120) | Under 7.5 (+100) |
| Los Angeles Rams | 7.5 | Over 7.5 (-120) | Under 7.5 (+100) |
| Washington Commanders | 7.5 | Over 7.5 (+120) | Under 7.5 (-150) |
| Green Bay Packers | 7.5 | Over 7.5 (+120) | Under 7.5 (-150) |
| Tennessee Titans | 7.5 | Over 7.5 (+105) | Under 7.5 (-125) |
| Chicago Bears | 7.5 | Over 7.5 (-120) | Under 7.5 (+100) |
| Atlanta Falcons | 7.5 | Over 7.5 (+100) | Under 7.5 (-120) |
| Las Vegas Raiders | 7.5 | Over 7.5 (+120) | Under 7.5 (-150) |
| Tampa Bay Buccaneers | 6.5 | Over 6.5 (-110) | Under 6.5 (-110) |
| Indianapolis Colts | 6.5 | Over 6.5 (-140) | Under 6.5 (+115) |
| Houston Texans | 5.5 | Over 5.5 (-110) | Under 5.5 (-110) |
| Arizona Cardinals | 5.5 | Over 5.5 (+110) | Under 5.5 (-130) |
Best football betting sites
Check out the best NFL betting sites below.
If you live in a state like California that is still waiting for legalized online betting, check out daily fantasy sports sites or free-to-play CA sports betting apps in the meantime. These sites also have generous offers for new users.
Last season’s NFL win totals
A look at what the projected season over/under win totals were for each NFL team from late March 2022 along with how many wins they actually finished with. The totals were from DraftKings Sportsbook (March 29).
| Team | Projected 2022 Win Totals Over Unders | Actual wins |
|---|---|---|
| Kansas City Chiefs | 10.5 wins | 14 wins |
| Tampa Bay Buccaneers | 11.5 wins | 8 wins |
| Baltimore Ravens | 9.5 wins | 10 wins |
| Buffalo Bills | 11.5 wins | 13 wins |
| Cleveland Browns | 8.5 wins | 7 wins |
| LA Rams | 10.5 wins | 5 wins |
| San Francisco 49ers | 10 wins | 13 wins |
| Green Bay Packers | 11 wins | 8 wins |
| Seattle Seahawks | 5.5 wins | 9 wins |
| New England Patriots | 8.5 wins | 8 wins |
| LA Chargers | 10 wins | 10 wins |
| Miami Dolphins | 9 wins | 9 wins |
| Indianapolis Colts | 10 wins | 4 wins |
| Dallas Cowboys | 10 wins | 12 wins |
| Tennessee Titans | 9 wins | 7 wins |
| New Orleans Saints | 8.5 wins | 7 wins |
| Minnesota Vikings | 9 wins | 13 wins |
| Pittsburgh Steelers | 7.5 wins | 9 wins |
| Denver Broncos | 10 wins | 5 wins |
| Arizona Cardinals | 8.5 wins | 4 wins |
| Washington Commanders | 8 wins | 8 wins |
| Carolina Panthers | 6.5 wins | 7 wins |
| Chicago Bears | 6.5 wins | 3 wins |
| Atlanta Falcons | 5 wins | 7 wins |
| New York Giants | 7 wins | 9 wins |
| Las Vegas Raiders | 8.5 wins | 6 wins |
| Cincinnati Bengals | 10 wins | 12 wins |
| Philadelphia Eagles | 9.5 wins | 14 wins |
| Jacksonville Jaguars | 6.5 wins | 9 wins |
| New York Jets | 5.5 wins | 7 wins |
| Detroit Lions | 6.5 wins | 9 wins |
| Houston Texans | 4.5 wins | 3 wins |
How to bet win totals
Sports bettors had to do some major adjusting ahead of last season. Teams played 17 games each in the regular season for the first time. Most impacted from a betting perspective is the always-popular NFL Win Totals market.
No longer will teams finish the regular season with 10-6 or 5-11 records. Instead, 10-6 could turn into 11-6, and 5-11 could turn into 5-12. An extra game has had a big impact on projecting how many games a team will win and lose.
Still, over – under bets are one of the more straightforward futures wagers available. Moreover, since they involve handicapping a team’s outlook for the coming season, they’re appealing even to novice bettors, considering NFL fans typically have strong opinions on each team in the league.
Win totals bets fall under the category of a “futures” bet. As their name implies, futures bets are wagers placed on events that won’t be “settled” until a future date. For example, in the case of win totals bets, the wagers are based on the number of victories a team is projected to garner in the coming regular season of that particular sport. The wagers are made available before the start of that regular season and therefore require a certain amount of research on the part of the bettor in terms of a team’s prospects before a decision is made.
How oddsmakers set win totals
In a win totals bet, the oddsmaker sets a number for the projected amount of victories a team will garner in the coming season. A bettor then decides whether they want to place their money on the team, either failing to meet or exceeding that threshold. Either side of the bet will have odds assigned to it that determine the rate of payout if the wager is successful.
The odds are represented in the form of a number with a “-“ or “+” next to them. These denote the rate at which a bettor will be paid out if the wager is successful. As a rule of thumb, the number with a “-“ next to it represents the amount of money a bettor would need to risk to win $100. Conversely, a number with a “+” attached represents the amount of money a bettor would win for every $100 wagered. To illustrate further, let’s use a $10 bet as an example.
NFL win totals example
The New York Giants 2023 projected win total is over/under 8.5 wins. For this first example, we’ll assume the oddsmakers have assigned either side of the bet -110 odds. That means that whether you bet on the Giants falling short of or exceeding 8.5 wins, you’ll have the same rate of payout if your bet is successful. In this case, with the bet having -110 odds all the way around, the $10 bet would pay out a profit of $9.09. The bettor would therefore receive a total of $19.09 in return (the original $10 wagered plus the profit amount).
Utilizing the same wager, let’s say oddsmakers have instead made the odds for the Giants finishing over 8.5 wins at +120 and left the under side of the wager at -110. In this case, bettors putting faith in New York next season to exceed 8.5 wins would realize a $12 profit if their side of the bet is correct. The better would therefore receive a total of $22.00 in return (the original $10 wagered plus the profit amount).
Where to find win totals bets at online sportsbooks
As mentioned earlier, win totals bets fall under the umbrella of futures bets. They are not difficult to locate within online sportsbooks.
Typically, a bettor first navigates toward the off-season sport they wish to place a win totals bet for. In the case of NFL wins totals bets, the bettor would then look for an “NFL Futures” tab within the NFL section. The win totals bets are often further segregated under a “Team Futures” tab and a “Regular-season Wins” sub-section.
It’s also worth noting that in the early stages of the offseason, not every online sportsbook has win totals bets readily available. Some wait until the dust settles on important events, such as the NFL Draft, before rolling out their projected totals.
Strategy for betting NFL win totals
Line shopping
As is the case with most any purchase, being a smart and patient shopper when placing a wager can pay off nicely over time. The commodity one is evaluating/looking for the best price on when betting projected win totals is the projected number of wins that is set (likely to have low-to-no variance across most sportsbooks) and its corresponding odds (more likely to have variance across sportsbooks).
As an example, say Sportsbook A sets the Jacksonville Jaguars’ win total at 6.5 wins. The odds for under 6.5 wins are set at -110, while the odds on over 6.5 wins are set at +110. Meanwhile, Sportsbook B places the odds of under 6.5 wins at -120 and odds on over at +120.
In such an instance, a bettor wishing to bet under 6.5 wins would be best served going to Sportsbook A (as -110 odds offer a more favorable payout than -120) and one wishing to bet over 6.5 wins would be best served going to Sportsbook B (since +120 odds offer a more favorable payout than +110).
Recency bias
The concept of “recency bias” can be a confounding factor in any endeavor that involves placing money on sporting events. (i.e., not just in sports betting, but in daily fantasy sports as well, for example). Recency bias is the concept of allowing recent performances of a team/player to affect a current wager.
This concept is straightforward to illustrate with respect to win totals bets. One good example is the case of the 2020 New England Patriots. The Pats total was 8.5 wins. A bettor allowing recency bias to creep in would go by the Patriots’ long stretch of dominance (17 straight seasons of double-digit wins prior to the 2020 season) in placing a bet on New England exceeding that figure.
However, since Tom Brady decided to bolt Foxboro, and with Bill Belichick dealing with a depleted roster – the Patriots wound up going 7-9.
Inflated lines
The concept of “inflated lines” ties into recency bias to a large extent, as the latter often helps lead to the former. Inflated lines are the byproduct of the betting public heavily favoring one side of a bet over the other. Many times, that’s a result of the public allowing recency bias to affect their betting decisions.
To further explain, oddsmakers initially set a line where they estimate equal action on either side of the wager. However, once the line is released, its future movement will largely be determined by how much money is coming in on each side. When betting decisions heavily influenced by recency bias are being made by a large percentage of the public, this can lead to inflated lines that can be ripe for exploitation by a smart bettor.
The aforementioned case of the 2020 Patriots is a textbook example. And the same could apply to a number of teams that underwhelmed last season (see examples in the first section). Or, this could apply to teams that underperformed for the last several seasons. However, these teams can experience exponential improvement due to the ability to add multiple impact players this offseason. Together with the ongoing development of current pieces, these factors are not fully accounted for in the market.
In examples such as these, “fading the public” is a strategy to consider. Especially if the odds and research for the less popular side of the wager justify the investment.