NFL Win Totals | Season Over Unders

NFL Win Totals Season Long Over Unders Wins

NFL betting markets are already being closely monitored on a daily basis now that we are in the heart of the off-season. NFL Win Totals odds have been posted by top sportsbooks. Teams projected to be elite, like the Super Bowl champion Kansas City Chiefs, have around a 11.5 season long win total projection. A projected lowly team, like the Carolina Panthers, will have a mark of 5.5 wins or so. Check out live NFL win totals odds for all 32 teams below.

We will also dish out NFL season-long win totals betting analysis for each team below the odds table.

NFL win totals

Win totals for the 2024 NFL season have been posted at legal sportsbooks. Check them out below and click to bet now..

Over/Under win totals shown below are the best available prices on the over.

Arizona Cardinals: Over/Under 6.5 (+116)

Over 6.5 wins would mark a slight improvement for a Cardinals franchise that has finished 4-13 in back-to-back seasons.

Atlanta Falcons: Over/Under 9.5 (+120)

By adding veteran Kirk Cousins at QB, the Falcons will look to exceed 9.5 wins and contend for the NFC South crown.

Baltimore Ravens: Over/Under 11.5 (-150)

The Ravens are still considered one of the AFC’s top teams and have added Derrick Henry to be their top running back.

Buffalo Bills: Over/Under 10.5 (-128)

The Bills are still one of the top teams in the AFC East, but the departure of Stefon Diggs, Tre’Davious White, Jordan Poyer and Gabe Davis leaves more questions than answers.

Carolina Panthers: Over/Under 4.5 (-150)

The Panthers have addressed the offensive line in hopes of providing better protection for Bryce Young, who is entering his second season. However, the win total is the lowest on the board.

Chicago Bears: Over/Under 8.5 (+100)

The Justin Fields era has come to an end, and the Bears used the No. 1 overall pick in this year’s draft to build around new franchise QB Caleb Williams.

Cincinnati Bengals: Over/Under 10.5 (+104)

With a healthy Joe Burrow back in the fold, the Bengals are once expected to compete with the Ravens for AFC North bragging rights.

Cleveland Browns: Over/Under 8.5 (-110)

The Deshaun Watson hype has yet to live up to high expectations in Cleveland, and many are wondering if things will change this time around now that the veteran QB has recovered from shoulder surgery.

Dallas Cowboys: Over/Under 10.5 (-130)

The Cowboys have finished 12-5 during each of the last three seasons, but after not making any significant moves, some bettors may be thinking about the under.

Denver Broncos: Over/Under 5.5 (+120)

The Russell Wilson experiment in the Mile High City is officially over, and it looks to be another year of rebuilding for Sean Payton.

Detroit Lions: Over/Under 10.5 (-128)

The Lions are officially among the NFL elite teams following a 12-win regular season and a trip to the NFC Championship Game.

Green Bay Packers: Over/Under 9.5 (+110)

Jordan Love and company are looking to continue the momentum from a 9-win season that included upsetting the Cowboys in the Wild Card round.

Houston Texans: Over/Under 9.5 (+110)

Following a standout rookie season in which C.J. Stroud established himself as the Texans’ franchise QB, Houston is looking to chase another AFC South crown.

Indianapolis Colts: Over/Under 8.5 (-144)

Anthony Richardson saw his rookie season cut short due to surgery, so we’re about to find out if the QB has what it takes to lead the Colts to a winning record.

Jacksonville Jaguars: Over/Under 8.5 (-110)

The Jags have been fairly active during the offseason as they look to improve on a 9-8 record and get back to the playoffs.

Kansas City Chiefs: Over/Under 11.5 (+100)

The defending Super Bowl champs are one of three teams with a projected win total of 11.5 as the magic of Patrick Mahomes is still alive and well.

Las Vegas Raiders: Over/Under 6.5 (+118)

The Raiders have yet to find their franchise QB, and it’s reflected in the win total set by the sportsbooks.

LA Chargers: Over/Under 8.5 (+110)

New head coach Jim Harbaugh steps in as the Chargers new head coach after leading Michigan to a college football national championship, but there is a lot of work to do following the departure of several top offensive stars.

LA Rams: Over/Under 8.5 (+102)

The Rams certainly have the talent to finish with 8-plus wins as long as their top players stay healthy.

Miami Dolphins: Over/Under 9.5 (+118)

The Dolphins are expected to contend for the AFC East crown as long as Tua Tagovailoa can stay healthy.

Minnesota Vikings: Over/Under 6.5 (+118)

If Justin Jefferson and rookie QB J.J. McCarthy can establish some early chemistry, the Vikings could have a legitimate shot of exceeding 6.5 wins.

New England Patriots: Over/Under 5.5 (-142)

The Pats have a low projected win total once again as the post Bill Belichick era begins with a rebuild around rookie QB Drake Maye.

New Orleans Saints: Over/Under 7.5 (+106)

The Saints haven’t done so far this offseason, and for now it seems the books are not expecting much from New Orleans.

New York Giants: Over/Under 6.5 (+116)

The G-Men still need to figure out if Daniel Jones is their franchise QB and if he can keep New York relevant in the NFC East.

New York Jets: Over/Under 9.5 (-115)

It’s almost time to find out if a healthy Aaron Rodgers still has what it takes to lead the Jets to a winning season.

Philadelphia Eagles: Over/Under 10.5 (-118)

The Eagles seem to have moved on from their disastrous finish by focusing on a future that includes the addition of RB Saquon Barkley.

Pittsburgh Steelers: Over/Under 7.5 (+138)

The Steelers have the lowest projected win total of the four AFC North teams, even with Russell Wilson as their new starting QB.

San Francisco 49ers: Over/Under 11.5 (+100)

The 49ers are the third team with a projected win total of 11.5, and it’s not surprising as the defending NFC champs still have elite talent on both sides of the ball.

Seattle Seahawks: Over/Under 7.5 (+104)

The Seahawks have hit the reset button, parting ways with head coach Pete Carroll after 14 seasons.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers: Over/Under 7.5 (+116)

Baker Mayfield and Mike Evans are both returning from a 9-8 season in which the Bucs knocked out the Eagles in the Wild Card round.

Tennessee Titans: Over/Under 6.5 (+110)

Sportsbooks see the Titans hovering around the 6-win mark once again, this time without RB Derrick Henry.

Washington Commanders: Over/Under 6.5 (-105)

The Commanders used the No. 2 overall pick to select LSU QB Jayden Daniels as new head coach Dan Quinn begins another Washington rebuild.

NFL season long wins over under

A look at what the projected season long win over unders were for each NFL team when they opened this past spring.

TeamNFL Win Totals
Arizona Cardinals Over/Under 6.5 Wins
Atlanta FalconsOver/Under 9.5 Wins
Baltimore RavensOver/Under 11.5 Wins
Buffalo BillsOver/Under 10.5 Wins
Carolina PanthersOver/Under 5.5 Wins
Chicago BearsOver/Under 8.5 Wins
Cincinnati BengalsOver/Under 10.5 Wins
Cleveland BrownsOver/Under 8.5 Wins
Dallas Cowboys Over/Under 10.5 Wins
Denver Broncos Over/Under 5.5 Wins
Detroit LionsOver/Under 10.5 Wins
Green Bay PackersOver/Under 9.5 Wins
Houston TexansOver/Under 9.5 Wins
Indianapolis ColtsOver/Under 8.5 Wins
Jacksonville JaguarsOver/Under 8.5 Wins
Kansas City ChiefsOver/Under 11.5 Wins
Las Vegas Raiders Over/Under 6.5 Wins
LA ChargersOver/Under 8.5 Wins
LA RamsOver/Under 8.5 Wins
Miami DolphinsOver/Under 9.5 Wins
Minnesota VikingsOver/Under 6.5 Wins
New England PatriotsOver/Under 5.5 Wins
New Orleans SaintsOver/Under 7.5 Wins
New York GiantsOver/Under 6.5 Wins
New York JetsOver/Under 9.5 Wins
Philadelphia EaglesOver/Under 10.5 Wins
Pittsburgh SteelersOver/Under 7.5 Wins
San Francisco 49ersOver/Under 11.5 Wins
Seattle SeahawksOver/Under 7.5 Wins
Tampa Bay BuccaneersOver/Under 7.5 Wins
Tennessee TitansOver/Under 6.5 Wins
Washington CommandersOver/Under 6.5 Wins

How to bet win totals

Sports bettors had to do some major adjusting ahead of last season. Teams played 17 games each in the regular season for the first time. Most impacted from a betting perspective is the always-popular NFL Win Totals market.

No longer will teams finish the regular season with 10-6 or 5-11 records. Instead, 10-6 could turn into 11-6, and 5-11 could turn into 5-12. An extra game has had a big impact on projecting how many games a team will win and lose.

Still, over – under bets are one of the more straightforward futures wagers available. Moreover, since they involve handicapping a team’s outlook for the coming season, they’re appealing even to novice bettors, considering NFL fans typically have strong opinions on each team in the league.

Win totals bets fall under the category of a “futures” bet. As their name implies, futures bets are wagers placed on events that won’t be “settled” until a future date.  For example, in the case of win totals bets, the wagers are based on the number of victories a team is projected to garner in the coming regular season of that particular sport. The wagers are made available before the start of that regular season and, therefore, require a certain amount of research on the part of the bettor in terms of a team’s prospects before a decision is made.

How oddsmakers set win totals

In a win totals bet, the oddsmaker sets a number for the projected amount of victories a team will garner in the coming season. A bettor then decides whether they want to place their money on the team, either failing to meet or exceeding that threshold. Either side of the bet will have odds assigned to it that determine the rate of payout if the wager is successful.

The odds are represented in the form of a number with a “-“ or “+” next to them. These denote the rate at which a bettor will be paid out if the wager is successful. As a rule of thumb, the number with a “-“ next to it represents the amount of money a bettor would need to risk to win $100. Conversely, a number with a “+” attached represents the amount of money a bettor would win for every $100 wagered. To illustrate further, let’s use a $10 bet as an example.

NFL win totals example

The Chicago Bears 2024 projected win total is over/under 8.5 wins. BetMGM oddsmakers have assigned -140 odds on the over while the under is +115. The line is telling us exceeding 8.5 wins is slightly favored over the under. Should Chicago finish with nine or more wins, a $10 bet would pay out a profit of $7.14. The bettor would, therefore, receive a total of $17.14 in return (the original $10 wagered plus the profit amount). However, if Caleb Williams and the Bears were to finish 7-10, under bettors would cash winning tickets. Based on the +115 odds, the same $10 wager would return $21.50 – $11.50 would be the profit.

Where to find win totals bets at online sportsbooks

As mentioned earlier, win totals bets fall under the umbrella of futures bets. They are not difficult to locate within online sportsbooks.

Typically, a bettor first navigates toward the off-season sport they wish to place a win totals bet for. In the case of NFL wins totals bets, the bettor would then look for an “NFL Futures” tab within the NFL section. The win totals bets are often further segregated under a “Team Futures” tab and a “Regular-season Wins” sub-section.

It’s also worth noting that not every online sportsbook has win totals bets readily available in the early stages of the offseason. Some wait until the dust settles on important events, such as the NFL Draft, before rolling out their projected totals.

Strategy for betting NFL win totals

Line shopping

As with most purchases, being a smart and patient shopper when placing a wager can pay off nicely over time. The commodity one is evaluating/looking for the best price on when betting projected win totals is the projected number of wins that is set (likely to have low-to-no variance across most sportsbooks) and its corresponding odds (more likely to have variance across sportsbooks).

As an example, say Sportsbook A sets the Jacksonville Jaguars’ win total at 6.5 wins. The odds for under 6.5 wins are set at -110, while the odds on over 6.5 wins are set at +110. Meanwhile, Sportsbook B places the odds of under 6.5 wins at -120 and odds on over at +120.

In such an instance, a bettor wishing to bet under 6.5 wins would be best served going to Sportsbook A (as -110 odds offer a more favorable payout than -120), and one wishing to bet over 6.5 wins would be best served going to Sportsbook B (since +120 odds offer a more favorable payout than +110).

Recency bias

The concept of “recency bias” can be a confounding factor in any endeavor that involves placing money on sporting events. (i.e., not just in sports betting, but in daily fantasy sports as well, for example). Recency bias is the concept of allowing recent performances of a team/player to affect a current wager.

This concept is straightforward to illustrate with respect to win totals bets. One good example is the case of the 2020 New England Patriots. The Pats total was 8.5 wins. A bettor allowing recency bias to creep in would go by the Patriots’ long stretch of dominance (17 straight seasons of double-digit wins prior to the 2020 season) in placing a bet on New England exceeding that figure.

However, since Tom Brady decided to bolt Foxboro, and with Bill Belichick dealing with a depleted roster – the Patriots wound up going 7-9.

Inflated lines

The concept of “inflated lines” ties into recency bias to a large extent, as the latter often helps lead to the former. Inflated lines are the byproduct of the betting public heavily favoring one side of a bet over the other. Many times, that’s a result of the public allowing recency bias to affect their betting decisions.

To further explain, oddsmakers initially set a line where they estimate equal action on either side of the wager. However, once the line is released, its future movement will largely be determined by how much money is coming in on each side. When betting decisions heavily influenced by recency bias are being made by a large percentage of the public, this can lead to inflated lines that can be ripe for exploitation by a smart bettor.

The aforementioned case of the 2020 Patriots is a textbook example. And the same could apply to a number of teams that underwhelmed last season (see examples in the first section). Or, this could apply to teams that underperformed for the last several seasons. However, these teams can experience exponential improvement due to the ability to add multiple impact players this offseason. Together with the ongoing development of current pieces, these factors are not fully accounted for in the market.

In examples such as these, “fading the public” is a strategy to consider. Especially if the odds and research for the less popular side of the wager justify the investment.