Sports bettors had to do some major adjusting ahead of last season. Teams played 17 games each in the regular season for the first time. Most impacted from a betting perspective is the always-popular NFL Win Totals market.
No longer will teams finish the regular season with 10-6 or 5-11 records. Instead, 10-6 could turn into 11-6 and 5-11 could turn into 5-12. An extra game has had a big impact on projecting how many games a team will win and lose.
Still, over – under bets are one of the more straightforward futures wagers available. Moreover, since they involve handicapping a team’s outlook for the coming season, they’re appealing even to novice bettors, considering NFL fans typically have strong opinions on each team in the league.
NFL win totals 2022
Win totals for the 2022 NFL season have been posted at several legal sportsbooks. Check them out below and click to bet now,.
Here is a look at what opening NFL win totals looked like at DraftKings Sportsbook on March 29, 2022.
| Team | Projected Win Total | Over Price | Under Price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Tampa Bay Buccaneers | 11.5 | 11.5 (-110) | 11.5 (-110) |
| Buffalo Bills | 11.5 | 11.5 (-130) | 11.5 (+110) |
| Green Bay Packers | 11 | 11 (-125) | 11 (+105) |
| Kansas City Chiefs | 10.5 | 10.5 (-115) | 10.5 (-105) |
| Dallas Cowboys | 10.5 | 10.5 (-105) | 10.5 (-115) |
| Los Angeles Rams | 10.5 | 10.5 (-115) | 10.5 (-105) |
| San Francisco 49ers | 10 | 10 (-110) | 10 (-110) |
| Los Angeles Chargers | 10 | 10 (-120) | 10 (+100) |
| Cincinnati Bengals | 10 | 10 (+110) | 10 (-130) |
| Denver Broncos | 10 | 10 (-110) | 10 (-110) |
| Tennessee Titans | 9.5 | 9.5 (+115) | 9.5 (+115) |
| Baltimore Ravens | 9.5 | 9.5 (-130) | 9.5 (+110) |
| Indianapolis Colts | 9.5 | 9.5 (-130) | 9.5 (+110) |
| Arizona Cardinals | 9 | 9 (+110) | 9 (-130) |
| Miami Dolphins | 9 | 9 (+100) | 9 (-120) |
| Minnesota Vikings | 9 | 9 (+100) | 9 (-120) |
| Las Vegas Raiders | 8.5 | 8.5 (-110) | 8.5 (-110) |
| New England Patriots | 8.5 | 8.5 (-120) | 8.5 (+100) |
| Philadelphia Eagles | 8.5 | 8.5 (-140) | 8.5 (+115) |
| New Orleans Saints | 8 | 7.5 (-110) | 7.5 (-110) |
| Washington Commanders | 7.5 | 7.5 (-125) | 7.5 (+105) |
| Pittsburgh Steelers | 7.5 | 7.5 (-120) | 7.5 (+100) |
| New York Giants | 7 | 7 (-110) | 7 (-110) |
| Chicago Bears | 6.5 | 6.5 (-110) | 6.5 (-105) |
| Jacksonville Jaguars | 6 | 6 (-120) | 6 (+100) |
| Detroit Lions | 6 | 6 (-125) | 6 (+105) |
| Carolina Panthers | 6 | 6 (-105) | 6 (-105) |
| Seattle Seahawks | 5.5 | 5.5 (-120) | 5.5 (+120) |
| New York Jets | 5.5 | 5.5 (-145) | 5.5 (+120) |
| Atlanta Falcons | 5 | 5 (+100) | 5 (-120) |
| Houston Texans | 4.5 | 4.5 (+125) | 4.5 (-150) |
| Cleveland Browns | OTB | OTB | OTB |
- Buccaneers: Under 11.5 (-110), Over 11.5 (-110)
- Raiders: Under 8.5 (-110), Over 8.5 (-110)
- Titans: Over 9.5 (-110), Under 9.5 (-110)
- Texans: Under 4.5 (-115), Over 4.5 (-105)
- Patriots: Over 8.5 (-125), Under 8.5 (+105)
- Steelers: Over 7.5 (-120), Under 7.5 (+100)
- Cowboys: Under 10.5 (-115), Over 10.5 (-105)
- Seahawks: Under 6.5 (-125), Over 6.5 (+105)
- Giants: Under 7 (-110), Over 7 (-110)
- Packers: Over 11 (-125), Under 11 (+105
- Saints: Over 7.5 (-140), Under 7.5 (+120)
- Bears: Under 7 (-130), Over 7 (+110)
- Panthers: Over 6 (-110), Under 6 (-110)
Over/under win totals by team
Over/Under win totals shown here are the best available prices on the over.
Arizona Cardinals: Over/Under
DeAndre Hopkins has been suspended six games for violating the league’s performance-enhancing drug policy, which somewhat surprisingly has not moved the number at DraftKings, but it has significantly moved the juice. Heading into the draft the Cardinals had a win total of nine games with -110 juice both ways. Following the news, the under was juiced up to -130, while the over moved to +110.
Atlanta Falcons: Over/Under
While Calvin Ridley is suspended for the season and Matt Ryan is gone, the Falcons could have an exciting offense with Marcus Mariota throwing to second-year TE Kyle Pitts and rookie WR Drake London.
Baltimore Ravens: Over/Under
With Lamar Jackson (ankle) injured, the Ravens dropped their final six games of the season to lose out on a playoff berth. Jackson is still mired in contract negotiations, but he’ll certainly help earn some wins as long as he’s active.
Buffalo Bills: Over/Under
The preseason favorites (+650 at DraftKings) to win the Super Bowl are getting -135 odds at some books to win 12 or more games. The Bills are loaded with talent on both sides of the ball and Josh Allen has taken a leap each season since his rookie year.
Carolina Panthers: Over/Under
Christian McCaffrey has struggled to stay healthy over the past few seasons and Matt Rhule has posted a 10-23 record over the first two years of his seven-year deal.
Chicago Bears: Over/Under
There is optimism among Bears fans with new HC Matt Eberflus looking to shift the culture and new GM Ryan Poles adding some good defensive pieces in the draft.
Cincinnati Bengals: Over/Under
The Bengals went 10-7 last season and peaked in the playoffs en route to a Super Bowl berth. Joe Burrow and Ja’Marr Chase are leading an explosive offense that is complemented by an underrated defense.
Cleveland Browns: Over/Under
Oddsmakers won’t assign a win total to the Browns until there is more clarity about the legal status of Deshaun Watson. Baker Mayfield has been alienated, which leaves Jacoby Brissett as the only other option to QB this squad.
Dallas Cowboys: Over/Under
The Cowboys have been beating up on their weak division with an 18-6 record against the NFC East since 2018.
Denver Broncos: Over/Under
Russell Wilson moves from the ultra-competitive NFC West to the brutally stacked AFC West and will look to lift a disappointing Broncos offense to the same level as the other juggernauts in that division.
Detroit Lions: Over/Under
Dan Campbell created a competitive team that finished 3-13-1 but nearly pulled off a few more upsets.
Green Bay Packers: Over/Under
It was another disappointing draft night for Packers fans and Aaron Rodgers, who lost running mate Davante Adams and will continue to try and make magic with limited weaponry around him.
Houston Texans: Over/Under
Lovie Smith takes over for David Culley and the veteran coach will look to create a more competitive environment by focusing on defense.
Indianapolis Colts: Over/Under
Jonathan Taylor was a monster last year behind Indy’s massive offensive line. The Colts are likely to maintain a run-heavy approach with 37-year-old Matt Ryan stepping in to replace Carson Wentz.
Jacksonville Jaguars: Over/Under
Doug Pederson takes over after Jacksonville’s disastrous season under Urban Meyer. The Jags spent on a few big-name free agents and will be looking to win back their fan base with a decent season.
Kansas City Chiefs: Over/Under
The Chiefs had a projected total of 12.5 wins at most sportsbooks last year and are available at 10.5 wins in some spots after they traded Tyreek Hill. The Chiefs are shifting their offensive identity and should still be very dangerous with Andy Reid and Patrick Mahomes dissecting defenses.
Las Vegas Raiders: Over/Under
The Raiders went big this offseason by snaring Chandler Jones, and Davante Adams while extending Derek Carr. Josh McDaniels will take his second crack at becoming a successful head coach.
LA Chargers: Over/Under
The Chargers are going to be a terrifying matchup for opposing offensive lines with Joey Bosa and Khalil Mack lining up on the edges. Justin Herbert is a stud and Brandon Staley is a brash young coach.
LA Rams: Over/Under
The Rams sputtered to a 12-5 finish in the regular season and squeaked out wins in the NFC Championship and Super Bowl to win a title in Matthew Stafford’s first year with the franchise.
Miami Dolphins: Over/Under
The Dolphins mortgaged some draft capital to field a more competitive roster right now and find out what they have in Tua Tagovailoa. They signed Teddy Bridgewater to provide some insurance if Tua can’t succeed with a bevy of weapons around him.
Minnesota Vikings: Over/Under
After a disappointing 8-9 season that involved a slew of close losses, Mike Zimmer was fired. Kevin O’Connell steps in to coach a solid roster.
New England Patriots: Over/Under
The Patriots finished 10-7 last year despite losing three of their last four games. Mac Jones is showing continued growth in this system and New England is still loaded on defense despite losing a few figures from last season.
New Orleans Saints: Over/Under
New Orleans had some rotten luck last year in terms of injuries and still finished 8-9. However, that was under Sean Payton, and former DC Dennis Allen doesn’t have the same reputation for crafting game plans.
New York Giants: Over/Under
The Giants spiraled out of control last season and finished 4-13 before Joe Judge was fired. Brian Daboll will try to make the most out of a talented, but injury-prone offense.
New York Jets: Over/Under
Both New York teams finished 4-13 last season, although the Jets had much lower expectations with rookie QB Zach Wilson playing under first-year HC Robert Saleh.
Philadelphia Eagles: Over/Under
The Eagles went 9-8 last season under first-year HC Nick Sirianni and landed stud WR A.J. Brown in a draft-day coup.
Pittsburgh Steelers: Over/Under
Mitchell Trubisky is set to take over at QB for Pittsburgh after Ben Roethlisberger struggled the past couple of years behind a depleted offensive line. And if he fails, the Steelers have rookie Kenny Pickett waiting in the wings.
San Francisco 49ers: Over/Under
The Niners bounced back from an injury-plagued 2020-21 season to go 10-7 and come within a couple of plays of making the Super Bowl. They still haven’t signed team MVP Deebo Samuel to an extension. Samuel has requested a trade, but the Niners don’t appear to be interested in one.
Seattle Seahawks: Over/Under
The Seahawks couldn’t consistently compete in the loaded NFC West with Russell Wilson (thumb) injured and ineffective at times. Their win total has dropped considerably with Drew Lock set to start this year.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers: Over/Under
Tom Brady is back with a host of familiar characters from a team that went 13-4 last season. The NFC South is considerably weaker now that Sean Payton is no longer with the Saints.
Tennessee Titans: Over/Under
The Titans will hope that Treylon Burks can step in right away after they traded A.J. Brown for the 18th overall pick. Robert Woods (ACL) is set to start opposite the rookie.
Washington Football Team: Over/Under
Ron Rivera steered his club to a 7-10 record with Taylor Heinicke starting under center for most of the 2021-22 season. Carson Wentz has a bit more potential as the new starter in Washington.
Last season’s over/under win totals
A look at the projected season over/under win totals for each team in the league from the pre-season. The totals are from DraftKings Sportsbook (Sept. 7).
| Team | Win Totals Over Unders |
|---|---|
| Kansas City Chiefs | 12.5 wins |
| Tampa Bay Buccaneers | 12 wins |
| Baltimore Ravens | 11 wins |
| Buffalo Bills | 11 wins |
| Cleveland Browns | 10.5 wins |
| LA Rams | 10.5 wins |
| San Francisco 49ers | 10.5 wins |
| Green Bay Packers | 10 wins |
| Seattle Seahawks | 10 wins |
| New England Patriots | 9.5 wins |
| LA Chargers | 9.5 wins |
| Miami Dolphins | 9.5 wins |
| Indianapolis Colts | 9 wins |
| Dallas Cowboys | 9 wins |
| Tennessee Titans | 9 wins |
| New Orleans Saints | 9 wins |
| Minnesota Vikings | 8.5 wins |
| Pittsburgh Steelers | 8.5 wins |
| Denver Broncos | 8.5 wins |
| Arizona Cardinals | 8.5 wins |
| Washington Football Team | 8.5 wins |
| Carolina Panthers | 7.5 wins |
| Chicago Bears | 7.5 wins |
| Atlanta Falcons | 7.5 wins |
| New York Giants | 7 wins |
| Las Vegas Raiders | 7 wins |
| Cincinnati Bengals | 6.5 wins |
| Philadelphia Eagles | 6.5 wins |
| Jacksonville Jaguars | 6.5 wins |
| New York Jets | 6 wins |
| Detroit Lions | 4.5 wins |
| Houston Texans | 4 wins |
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How to bet win totals
Win totals bets fall under the category of a “futures” bet. As their name implies, futures bets are wagers placed on events that won’t be “settled” until a future date. For example, in the case of win totals bets, the wagers are based on the number of victories a team is projected to garner in the coming regular season of that particular sport. The wagers are made available before the start of that regular season and therefore require a certain amount of research on the part of the bettor in terms of a team’s prospects before a decision is made.
In a win totals bet, the oddsmaker sets a number for the projected amount of victories a team will garner in the coming season. A bettor then decides whether they want to place their money on the team either failing to meet or exceeding that threshold. Either side of the bet will have odds assigned to it that determine the rate of payout if the wager is successful.
The odds are represented in the form of a number with a “-“ or “+” next to them. These denote the rate at which a bettor will be paid out if the wager is successful. As a rule of thumb, the number with a “-“ next to it represents the amount of money a bettor would need to risk to win $100. Conversely, a number with a “+” attached represents the amount of money a bettor would win for every $100 wagered. To further illustrate, let’s use a $10 bet as an example.
Let’s suppose the Atlanta Falcons are assigned a projected win total of seven victories for the 2021 season. For this first example, we’ll assume the oddsmakers have assigned either side of the bet -110 odds. That means that whether you bet on Atlanta falling short of or exceeding seven wins, you’ll have the same rate of payout if your bet is successful. In this case, with the bet having -110 odds all the way around, the $10 bet would pay out a profit of $9.09. The bettor would therefore receive a total of $19.09 in return (the original $10 wagered, plus the profit amount).
Utilizing the same wager, let’s say oddsmakers have instead made the odds for the Falcons finishing over seven wins at +120 and left the under side of the wager at -110. In this case, bettors putting faith in Atlanta taking a sizable leap forward next season and exceeding seven wins would realize a $12 profit if their side of the bet is correct. The better would therefore receive a total of $22.00 in return (the original $10 wagered, plus the profit amount).
Where to find win totals bets at online sportsbooks
As mentioned earlier, win totals bets fall under the umbrella of futures bets. They are not difficult to locate within online sportsbooks.
Typically, a bettor first navigates toward the offseason sport they wish to place a win totals bet for. In the case of NFL wins totals bets, the bettor would then look for a “NFL Futures” tab within the NFL section. The win totals bets are often further segregated under a “Team Futures” tab and a “Regular-season Wins” sub-section.
It’s also worth noting that in the early stages of the offseason, not every online sportsbook has win totals bets readily available. Some wait until the dust settles on important events such as the NFL Draft before rolling out their projected totals.
Strategy for betting win totals
Line shopping
As is the case with most any purchase, being a smart and patient shopper when placing a wager can pay off nicely over time. The commodity one is evaluating/looking for the best price on when betting projected win totals is the projected number of wins that is set (likely to have low-to-no variance across most sportsbooks) and its corresponding odds (more likely to have variance across sportsbooks).
As an example, say Sportsbook A sets the Jacksonville Jaguars’ win total at 6.5 wins. The odds for under 6.5 wins are set at -110, while the odds on over 6.5 wins are set at +110. Meanwhile, Sportsbook B places the odds of under 6.5 wins at -120 and odds on over at +120.
In such an instance, a bettor wishing to bet under 6.5 wins would be best served going to Sportsbook A (as -110 odds offer a more favorable payout than -120) and one wishing to bet over 6.5 wins would be best served going to Sportsbook B (since +120 odds offer a more favorable payout than +110).
Recency bias
The concept of “recency bias” can be a confounding factor in any endeavor that involves placing money on sporting events (i.e., not just sports betting, but in daily fantasy sports as well, for example). Simply put, recency bias is the concept of allowing the performances of a team/player in the recent past to affect a decision on a current wager.
This concept is straightforward to illustrate with respect to win totals bets. One good example is the case of the 2020 New England Patriots. The Pats total was 8.5 wins. A bettor allowing recency bias to creep in would go by the Patriots’ long stretch of dominance (17 straight seasons of double-digit wins prior to the 2020 season) in placing a bet on New England exceeding that figure.
However, since Tom Brady decided to bolt Foxboro, and Bill Belichick was dealing with a depleted roster – the Patriots wound up going 7-9.
Inflated lines
The concept of “inflated lines” ties into recency bias to a large extent, as the latter often helps lead to the former. Inflated lines are the byproduct of the betting public heavily favoring one side of a bet over the other. Many times, that’s a result of the public allowing recency bias to affect their betting decisions.
To further explain, oddsmakers initially set a line at a point where they estimate they’ll be able to get close to equal action on either side of the wager. However, once the line is released, its future movement will largely be determined by how much money is coming in on each side. When betting decisions heavily influenced by recency bias are being made by a large percentage of the public, this can lead to inflated lines that can be ripe for exploitation by a smart bettor.
The aforementioned case of the 2020 Patriots is a textbook example. And the same could apply to a number of teams that underwhelmed last season (see examples in the first section) or for the last several seasons but are reaching a tipping point of exponential improvement due to their ability to add multiple impact players this offseason and the ongoing development of their existing pieces.
In examples such as these, “fading the public” is a strategy to consider, if the odds and research for the less popular side of the wager justify the investment.