NFL betting markets are being closely studied on a daily basis now that the season is underway. NFL Win Totals odds are currently up at the top betting sites. Teams projected to be elite, like the Super Bowl champion Kansas City Chiefs, currently have 14.5 wins as a season long win total projection. A projected lowly team, like the Carolina Panthers, have a mark of 3.5 wins at the current mark of the season. Check out live NFL win totals odds for all 32 teams below.
We will also dish out NFL season-long win totals betting analysis for each team below the odds table.
NFL win totals
Win totals for the 2024 NFL season have been posted at legal sportsbooks. Check them out below and click to bet now.
NFL season long wins over under
A look at what the projected season long win over unders were for each NFL team when they opened.
| Team | NFL Win Totals |
|---|---|
| Arizona Cardinals | Over/Under 6.5 Wins |
| Atlanta Falcons | Over/Under 9.5 Wins |
| Baltimore Ravens | Over/Under 11.5 Wins |
| Buffalo Bills | Over/Under 10.5 Wins |
| Carolina Panthers | Over/Under 5.5 Wins |
| Chicago Bears | Over/Under 8.5 Wins |
| Cincinnati Bengals | Over/Under 10.5 Wins |
| Cleveland Browns | Over/Under 8.5 Wins |
| Dallas Cowboys | Over/Under 10.5 Wins |
| Denver Broncos | Over/Under 5.5 Wins |
| Detroit Lions | Over/Under 10.5 Wins |
| Green Bay Packers | Over/Under 9.5 Wins |
| Houston Texans | Over/Under 9.5 Wins |
| Indianapolis Colts | Over/Under 8.5 Wins |
| Jacksonville Jaguars | Over/Under 8.5 Wins |
| Kansas City Chiefs | Over/Under 11.5 Wins |
| Las Vegas Raiders | Over/Under 6.5 Wins |
| LA Chargers | Over/Under 8.5 Wins |
| LA Rams | Over/Under 8.5 Wins |
| Miami Dolphins | Over/Under 9.5 Wins |
| Minnesota Vikings | Over/Under 6.5 Wins |
| New England Patriots | Over/Under 5.5 Wins |
| New Orleans Saints | Over/Under 7.5 Wins |
| New York Giants | Over/Under 6.5 Wins |
| New York Jets | Over/Under 9.5 Wins |
| Philadelphia Eagles | Over/Under 10.5 Wins |
| Pittsburgh Steelers | Over/Under 7.5 Wins |
| San Francisco 49ers | Over/Under 11.5 Wins |
| Seattle Seahawks | Over/Under 7.5 Wins |
| Tampa Bay Buccaneers | Over/Under 7.5 Wins |
| Tennessee Titans | Over/Under 6.5 Wins |
| Washington Commanders | Over/Under 6.5 Wins |
How to bet win totals
Sports bettors had to do some major adjusting ahead of last season. Teams played 17 games each in the regular season for the first time. Most impacted from a betting perspective is the always-popular NFL Win Totals market.
No longer will teams finish the regular season with 10-6 or 5-11 records. Instead, 10-6 could turn into 11-6, and 5-11 could turn into 5-12. An extra game has had a big impact on projecting how many games a team will win and lose.
Still, over – under bets are one of the more straightforward futures wagers available. Moreover, since they involve handicapping a team’s outlook for the coming season, they’re appealing even to novice bettors, considering NFL fans typically have strong opinions on each team in the league.
Win totals bets fall under the category of a “futures” bet. As their name implies, futures bets are wagers placed on events that won’t be “settled” until a future date. For example, in the case of win totals bets, the wagers are based on the number of victories a team is projected to garner in the coming regular season of that particular sport. The wagers are made available before the start of that regular season and, therefore, require a certain amount of research on the part of the bettor in terms of a team’s prospects before a decision is made.
How oddsmakers set win totals
In a win totals bet, the oddsmaker sets a number for the projected amount of victories a team will garner in the coming season. A bettor then decides whether they want to place their money on the team, either failing to meet or exceeding that threshold. Either side of the bet will have odds assigned to it that determine the rate of payout if the wager is successful.
The odds are represented in the form of a number with a “-“ or “+” next to them. These denote the rate at which a bettor will be paid out if the wager is successful. As a rule of thumb, the number with a “-“ next to it represents the amount of money a bettor would need to risk to win $100. Conversely, a number with a “+” attached represents the amount of money a bettor would win for every $100 wagered. To illustrate further, let’s use a $10 bet as an example.
NFL win totals example
The Chicago Bears 2024 projected win total is over/under 8.5 wins. BetMGM oddsmakers have assigned -140 odds on the over while the under is +115. The line is telling us exceeding 8.5 wins is slightly favored over the under. Should Chicago finish with nine or more wins, a $10 bet would pay out a profit of $7.14. The bettor would, therefore, receive a total of $17.14 in return (the original $10 wagered plus the profit amount). However, if Caleb Williams and the Bears were to finish 7-10, under bettors would cash winning tickets. Based on the +115 odds, the same $10 wager would return $21.50 – $11.50 would be the profit.
Where to find win totals bets at online sportsbooks
As mentioned earlier, win totals bets fall under the umbrella of futures bets. They are not difficult to locate within online sportsbooks.
Typically, a bettor first navigates toward the off-season sport they wish to place a win totals bet for. In the case of NFL wins totals bets, the bettor would then look for an “NFL Futures” tab within the NFL section. The win totals bets are often further segregated under a “Team Futures” tab and a “Regular-season Wins” sub-section.
It’s also worth noting that not every online sportsbook has win totals bets readily available in the early stages of the offseason. Some wait until the dust settles on important events, such as the NFL Draft, before rolling out their projected totals.
Strategy for betting NFL win totals
Line shopping
As with most purchases, being a smart and patient shopper when placing a wager can pay off nicely over time. The commodity one is evaluating/looking for the best price on when betting projected win totals is the projected number of wins that is set (likely to have low-to-no variance across most sportsbooks) and its corresponding odds (more likely to have variance across sportsbooks).
As an example, say Sportsbook A sets the Jacksonville Jaguars’ win total at 6.5 wins. The odds for under 6.5 wins are set at -110, while the odds on over 6.5 wins are set at +110. Meanwhile, Sportsbook B places the odds of under 6.5 wins at -120 and odds on over at +120.
In such an instance, a bettor wishing to bet under 6.5 wins would be best served going to Sportsbook A (as -110 odds offer a more favorable payout than -120), and one wishing to bet over 6.5 wins would be best served going to Sportsbook B (since +120 odds offer a more favorable payout than +110).
Recency bias
The concept of “recency bias” can be a confounding factor in any endeavor that involves placing money on sporting events. (i.e., not just in sports betting, but in daily fantasy sports as well, for example). Recency bias is the concept of allowing recent performances of a team/player to affect a current wager.
This concept is straightforward to illustrate with respect to win totals bets. One good example is the case of the 2020 New England Patriots. The Pats total was 8.5 wins. A bettor allowing recency bias to creep in would go by the Patriots’ long stretch of dominance (17 straight seasons of double-digit wins prior to the 2020 season) in placing a bet on New England exceeding that figure.
However, since Tom Brady decided to bolt Foxboro, and with Bill Belichick dealing with a depleted roster – the Patriots wound up going 7-9.
Inflated lines
The concept of “inflated lines” ties into recency bias to a large extent, as the latter often helps lead to the former. Inflated lines are the byproduct of the betting public heavily favoring one side of a bet over the other. Many times, that’s a result of the public allowing recency bias to affect their betting decisions.
To further explain, oddsmakers initially set a line where they estimate equal action on either side of the wager. However, once the line is released, its future movement will largely be determined by how much money is coming in on each side. When betting decisions heavily influenced by recency bias are being made by a large percentage of the public, this can lead to inflated lines that can be ripe for exploitation by a smart bettor.
The aforementioned case of the 2020 Patriots is a textbook example. And the same could apply to a number of teams that underwhelmed last season (see examples in the first section). Or, this could apply to teams that underperformed for the last several seasons. However, these teams can experience exponential improvement due to the ability to add multiple impact players this offseason. Together with the ongoing development of current pieces, these factors are not fully accounted for in the market.
In examples such as these, “fading the public” is a strategy to consider. Especially if the odds and research for the less popular side of the wager justify the investment.