NFL betting markets are always popular, even in the middle of the off-season. NFL Win Totals odds have been posted by top sportsbooks. Teams projected to be elite, like the Super Bowl champion Kansas City Chiefs, have around a 11.5 season long win total projection. A projected lowly team, like the Houston Texans, will have a mark of 5.5 wins or so. Check out live NFL win totals odds for all 32 teams below.
We will also dish out NFL season-long win totals betting analysis for each team below the odds table.
NFL win totals
Win totals for the 2023 NFL season have been posted at legal sportsbooks. Check them out below and click to bet now.
Over/Under win totals shown below are the best available prices on the over.
Arizona Cardinals: Over/Under
The Cardinals are coming off a 4-13 season in which they finished last in the NFC West. Former Philadelphia Eagles defensive coordinator Jonathan Gannon is the new head coach. With the early win total set at 5.5 wins, early signs are pointing toward another tough season for Arizona.
Atlanta Falcons: Over/Under
The Falcons finished 7-10 in a very weak NFC South in which none of the teams finished with a winning record. The Falcons odds are leaning slightly toward under 7.5 wins, but that could change based on who Atlanta drafts and adds via free agency.
Baltimore Ravens
Despite finishing second in the AFC North with a 10-7 record, it’s hard to say if the Ravens will win over 8.5 games again this season as a result of not knowing who the starting QB will be. The team placed a non-exclusive franchise tag on Lamar Jackson, and with April 1 days away, the situation remains unresolved.
Buffalo Bills: Over/Under
Do the defending AFC East champs have what it takes to finish above 11.5 wins again (13-3)? Remember Josh Allen and his Buffalo teammates fell short of the AFC Championship Game, so there is added motivation to take care of unfinished business.
Carolina Panthers: Over/Under
The Carolina Panthers have landed the No. 1 pick in next month’s NFL Draft, and there is little doubt they’ll select a QB. Without even knowing the answer, the Panthers odds at DraftKings Sportsbook are favoring over 7.5 wins as of late March. Carolina landed former Eagles running back Miles Sanders via fee agency.
Chicago Bears: Over/Under
Many will likely say the Bears’ win total can only go up after finishing last in the NFC with a 3-14 record. But is over 7.5 wins with -120 odds a reality?
Cincinnati Bengals: Over/Under
The Bengals lost to the Super Bowl champion Chiefs in last season’s AFC Championship Game, and is one of three teams projected with over/under 11.5 wins. It’s hard to ignore the franchise’s recent success.
Cleveland Browns: Over/Under
The Browns odds are leaning slightly toward under 9.5 wins (-140). Starting QB DeShaun Watson is not facing an early season suspension this time around.
Dallas Cowboys: Over/Under
Dallas might have a track record for falling short of those lofty postseason expectations, but Dallas has finished 12-5 in back-to-back seasons. The Cowboys odds for over 9.5 wins are -125 as of late March with QB Dak Prescott back to lead the offense.
Denver Broncos: Over/Under
The Broncos are looking to climb back up the AFC West standings following a 5-12 finish. New head coach Sean Payton is leading the rebuild. The Broncos odds at DraftKings of over/under 8.5 wins are -110 on either side as of late March.
Detroit Lions: Over/Under
Detroit enters the 2023 season looking to halt a NFL Playoff drought that dates back to 2016. Finishing over the 9.5 projected wins would certainly help the Lions’ postseason odds.
Green Bay Packers Over/Under
The Jordan Love era has begun in Green Bay as the QB signed an extension with the Packers in early May. This sets the rebuild in motion and explains why DraftKings has the early Packers odds for under 7.5 wins at -150.
Houston Texans Over/Under
Coming off a 3-13-1 season, which included an 0-7-1 mark at home, the Texans have one of the lowest win total projections out of the 32 NFL clubs. The odds are -110 for either side of 5.5 wins.
Indianapolis Colts Over/Under
After finishing just one game in front of the Texans (4-12-1) last season, the Colts 2023 regular season win total remains low at over/under 6.5 wins. The Colts odds to finish over 6.5 wins are -140 as of the final week of March.
Jacksonville Jaguars Over/Under
The Jaguars took a giant leap forward last season by winning the AFC South and advancing to the divisional round of the AFC playoffs. The over/under 10.5 wins is right on target with last season’s 9-8 finish.
Kansas City Chiefs Over/Under
The Super Bowl champs were the AFC’s top team with a 14-3 record. Patrick Mahomes is still running the offense, so the Chiefs odds of winning over 11.5 games for a sixth-straight season should not come as a surprise.
Las Vegas Raiders Over/Under
With Jimmy Garoppolo taking over as starting QB, the early Raiders odds are -150 for under 7.5 wins. Las Vegas finished 6-11 last season.
LA Chargers Over/Under
The finish to the Chargers’ 2022 season is hard to forget – L.A. blew a 27-point lead versus Jacksonville in a AFC Wild Card Game. The Chargers’ odds of winning over 9.5 games this season are -125 as the final week of March arrives.
LA Rams Over/Under
Do the Rams have what it takes to turn things around from a disappointing 2022 season in which they finished 5-12? L.A.’s win total is projected over/under 7.5 wins with the slight edge (-120) pointing toward the over.
Miami Dolphins Over/Under
The Miami Dolphins have won at least nine games in each of the last three seasons, so the over/under 9.5 wins seems like a reasonable target. The wild card is starting QB Tua Tagovailoa who suffered multiple concussions in 2022.
Minnesota Vikings Over/Under
Vikings bettors are looking at over/under 8.5 wins following a season in which the team won the NFC North with a 13-4 record. The Vikings odds are leaning toward the over once again, but going 4-2 against NFC North teams could be much tougher this time around, especially if the Lions and Bears are more competitive.
New England Patriots Over/Under
For the second time in three years, the Patriots are coming off a losing season with no playoffs. The Patriots odds for over/under 7.5 wins are looking fairly even at the moment, but New England plays in a tough division with the Bills, Dolphins and Jets.
New Orleans Saints Over/Under
Derek Carr is the new starting QB for a Saint team that missed the NFL Playoffs with a 7-10 record. Besides having a win total set at 9.5, Caesars Sportsbook has the Saints as a +120 favorite to win the NFC South.
New York Giants Over/Under
The G-Men surprised many in 2022 by making the playoffs with a 9-7 record and winning a Wild Card game. With QB Daniel Jones under a new contract and running back Saquon Barkley returning, will the Giants take another leap forward and finish above 8.5 wins?
New York Jets Over/Under
The Jets have weapons galore on offense and a defense led by NFL Defensive Rookie of the Year Sauce Gardner. If Aaron Rodgers doesn’t completely fall off a cliff now that he’s 39-years-old, the Jets should be in contention.
Philadelphia Eagles Over/Under
Philadelphia lost several key players and coaches from its NFC championship squad, yet the Birds projected win total is still over/under 10.5. Time will tell if Jalen Hurts and the Eagles have what it takes to win 14 games once again.
Pittsburgh Steelers Over/Under
Even with rookie Kenny Pickett taking over as starting QB, the Steelers finished third in the AFC North. The over/under 8.5 wins is right in line with the last two seasons when Pittsburgh had nine victories.
San Francisco 49ers Over/Under
49ers bettors might still be wondering how the 2022 NFC Championship Game would’ve played out had San Francisco had a healthy QB? The expectations are high once again with regular season wins projected at over/under 11.5.
Seattle Seahawks Over/Under
The Seattle Seahawks made the NFL Playoffs in 2022 with new quarterback Geno Smith running the offense. While the 49ers are the early NFC West favorite, the Seahawks are still projected to win over/under 8.5 games and could be in the Wild Card hunt once again.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers Over/Under
Now that Tom Brady is staying retired from the NFL, the Bucs enter the 2023 season with Baker Mayfield potentially taking over the reigns. The defending NFC South champs are looking at over/under 6.5 wins with -110 odds on either side.
Tennessee Titans Over/Under
The Titans are coming off a 7-10 season in which they missed the postseason. The betting line for winning under 7.5 games is -125, but that could change as we get closer to training camp.
Washington Commanders Over/Under
Washington was the lone NFC East squad not to make the playoffs last season. Besides cutting quarterback Carson Wentz, they lost Taylor Heinicke via free agency (now with the Atlanta Falcons). For now, the Commanders odds to finish under 7.5 wins are -150 at DraftKings.
Here is a look at what NFL win totals looked like at DraftKings Sportsbook on March 27, just about a month before the 2023 NFL Draft.
| Team | Projected Win Total | Over Price | Under Price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Kansas City Chiefs | 11.5 | Over 11.5 (-105) | Under 11.5 (-115) |
| San Francisco 49ers | 11.5 | Over 11.5 (+110) | Under 11.5 (-130) |
| Cincinnati Bengals | 11.5 | Over 11.5 (-105) | Under 11.5 (-115) |
| Philadelphia Eagles | 10.5 | Over 10.5 (-150) | Under 10.5 (+120) |
| Jacksonville Jaguars | 10.5 | Over 10.5 (+115) | Under 10.5 (-140) |
| Buffalo Bills | 10.5 | Over 10.5 (-140) | Under 10.5 (+115) |
| New York Jets | 9.5 | Over 9.5 (-130) | Under 9.5 (+110) |
| Dallas Cowboys | 9.5 | Over 9.5 (-125) | Under 9.5 (+105) |
| New Orleans Saints | 9.5 | Over 9.5 (+105) | Under 9.5 (-125) |
| Detroit Lions | 9.5 | Over 9.5 (-150) | Under 9.5 (+120) |
| Cleveland Browns | 9.5 | Over 9.5 (+115) | Under 9.5 (-140) |
| Miami Dolphins | 9.5 | Over 9.5 (+100) | Under 9.5 (-120) |
| Los Angeles Chargers | 9.5 | Over 9.5 (-125) | Under 9.5 (+105) |
| New York Giants | 8.5 | Over 8.5 (+105) | Under 8.5 (-125) |
| Denver Broncos | 8.5 | Over 8.5 (-110) | Under 8.5 (-110) |
| Pittsburgh Steelers | 8.5 | Over 8.5 (-120) | Under 8.5 (+100) |
| Seattle Seahawks | 8.5 | Over 8.5 (-105) | Under 8.5 (-115) |
| Baltimore Ravens | 8.5 | Over 8.5 (-150) | Under 8.5 (+120) |
| Minnesota Vikings | 8.5 | Over 8.5 (-130) | Under 8.5 (+110) |
| New England Patriots | 7.5 | Over 7.5 (-120) | Under 7.5 (+100) |
| Carolina Panthers | 7.5 | Over 7.5 (-120) | Under 7.5 (+100) |
| Los Angeles Rams | 7.5 | Over 7.5 (-120) | Under 7.5 (+100) |
| Washington Commanders | 7.5 | Over 7.5 (+120) | Under 7.5 (-150) |
| Green Bay Packers | 7.5 | Over 7.5 (+120) | Under 7.5 (-150) |
| Tennessee Titans | 7.5 | Over 7.5 (+105) | Under 7.5 (-125) |
| Chicago Bears | 7.5 | Over 7.5 (-120) | Under 7.5 (+100) |
| Atlanta Falcons | 7.5 | Over 7.5 (+100) | Under 7.5 (-120) |
| Las Vegas Raiders | 7.5 | Over 7.5 (+120) | Under 7.5 (-150) |
| Tampa Bay Buccaneers | 6.5 | Over 6.5 (-110) | Under 6.5 (-110) |
| Indianapolis Colts | 6.5 | Over 6.5 (-140) | Under 6.5 (+115) |
| Houston Texans | 5.5 | Over 5.5 (-110) | Under 5.5 (-110) |
| Arizona Cardinals | 5.5 | Over 5.5 (+110) | Under 5.5 (-130) |
Best football betting sites
Check out the best NFL betting sites below.
Last season’s NFL win totals
A look at what the projected season over/under win totals were for each NFL team from late March 2022 along with how many wins they actually finished with. The totals were from DraftKings Sportsbook (March 29).
| Team | Projected 2022 Win Totals Over Unders | Actual wins |
|---|---|---|
| Kansas City Chiefs | 10.5 wins | 14 wins |
| Tampa Bay Buccaneers | 11.5 wins | 8 wins |
| Baltimore Ravens | 9.5 wins | 10 wins |
| Buffalo Bills | 11.5 wins | 13 wins |
| Cleveland Browns | 8.5 wins | 7 wins |
| LA Rams | 10.5 wins | 5 wins |
| San Francisco 49ers | 10 wins | 13 wins |
| Green Bay Packers | 11 wins | 8 wins |
| Seattle Seahawks | 5.5 wins | 9 wins |
| New England Patriots | 8.5 wins | 8 wins |
| LA Chargers | 10 wins | 10 wins |
| Miami Dolphins | 9 wins | 9 wins |
| Indianapolis Colts | 10 wins | 4 wins |
| Dallas Cowboys | 10 wins | 12 wins |
| Tennessee Titans | 9 wins | 7 wins |
| New Orleans Saints | 8.5 wins | 7 wins |
| Minnesota Vikings | 9 wins | 13 wins |
| Pittsburgh Steelers | 7.5 wins | 9 wins |
| Denver Broncos | 10 wins | 5 wins |
| Arizona Cardinals | 8.5 wins | 4 wins |
| Washington Commanders | 8 wins | 8 wins |
| Carolina Panthers | 6.5 wins | 7 wins |
| Chicago Bears | 6.5 wins | 3 wins |
| Atlanta Falcons | 5 wins | 7 wins |
| New York Giants | 7 wins | 9 wins |
| Las Vegas Raiders | 8.5 wins | 6 wins |
| Cincinnati Bengals | 10 wins | 12 wins |
| Philadelphia Eagles | 9.5 wins | 14 wins |
| Jacksonville Jaguars | 6.5 wins | 9 wins |
| New York Jets | 5.5 wins | 7 wins |
| Detroit Lions | 6.5 wins | 9 wins |
| Houston Texans | 4.5 wins | 3 wins |
How to bet win totals
Sports bettors had to do some major adjusting ahead of last season. Teams played 17 games each in the regular season for the first time. Most impacted from a betting perspective is the always-popular NFL Win Totals market.
No longer will teams finish the regular season with 10-6 or 5-11 records. Instead, 10-6 could turn into 11-6, and 5-11 could turn into 5-12. An extra game has had a big impact on projecting how many games a team will win and lose.
Still, over – under bets are one of the more straightforward futures wagers available. Moreover, since they involve handicapping a team’s outlook for the coming season, they’re appealing even to novice bettors, considering NFL fans typically have strong opinions on each team in the league.
Win totals bets fall under the category of a “futures” bet. As their name implies, futures bets are wagers placed on events that won’t be “settled” until a future date. For example, in the case of win totals bets, the wagers are based on the number of victories a team is projected to garner in the coming regular season of that particular sport. The wagers are made available before the start of that regular season and therefore require a certain amount of research on the part of the bettor in terms of a team’s prospects before a decision is made.
How oddsmakers set win totals
In a win totals bet, the oddsmaker sets a number for the projected amount of victories a team will garner in the coming season. A bettor then decides whether they want to place their money on the team, either failing to meet or exceeding that threshold. Either side of the bet will have odds assigned to it that determine the rate of payout if the wager is successful.
The odds are represented in the form of a number with a “-“ or “+” next to them. These denote the rate at which a bettor will be paid out if the wager is successful. As a rule of thumb, the number with a “-“ next to it represents the amount of money a bettor would need to risk to win $100. Conversely, a number with a “+” attached represents the amount of money a bettor would win for every $100 wagered. To illustrate further, let’s use a $10 bet as an example.
NFL win totals example
The New York Giants 2023 projected win total is over/under 8.5 wins. For this first example, we’ll assume the oddsmakers have assigned either side of the bet -110 odds. That means that whether you bet on the Giants falling short of or exceeding 8.5 wins, you’ll have the same rate of payout if your bet is successful. In this case, with the bet having -110 odds all the way around, the $10 bet would pay out a profit of $9.09. The bettor would therefore receive a total of $19.09 in return (the original $10 wagered plus the profit amount).
Utilizing the same wager, let’s say oddsmakers have instead made the odds for the Giants finishing over 8.5 wins at +120 and left the under side of the wager at -110. In this case, bettors putting faith in New York next season to exceed 8.5 wins would realize a $12 profit if their side of the bet is correct. The better would therefore receive a total of $22.00 in return (the original $10 wagered plus the profit amount).
Where to find win totals bets at online sportsbooks
As mentioned earlier, win totals bets fall under the umbrella of futures bets. They are not difficult to locate within online sportsbooks.
Typically, a bettor first navigates toward the off-season sport they wish to place a win totals bet for. In the case of NFL wins totals bets, the bettor would then look for an “NFL Futures” tab within the NFL section. The win totals bets are often further segregated under a “Team Futures” tab and a “Regular-season Wins” sub-section.
It’s also worth noting that in the early stages of the offseason, not every online sportsbook has win totals bets readily available. Some wait until the dust settles on important events, such as the NFL Draft, before rolling out their projected totals.
Strategy for betting NFL win totals
Line shopping
As is the case with most any purchase, being a smart and patient shopper when placing a wager can pay off nicely over time. The commodity one is evaluating/looking for the best price on when betting projected win totals is the projected number of wins that is set (likely to have low-to-no variance across most sportsbooks) and its corresponding odds (more likely to have variance across sportsbooks).
As an example, say Sportsbook A sets the Jacksonville Jaguars’ win total at 6.5 wins. The odds for under 6.5 wins are set at -110, while the odds on over 6.5 wins are set at +110. Meanwhile, Sportsbook B places the odds of under 6.5 wins at -120 and odds on over at +120.
In such an instance, a bettor wishing to bet under 6.5 wins would be best served going to Sportsbook A (as -110 odds offer a more favorable payout than -120) and one wishing to bet over 6.5 wins would be best served going to Sportsbook B (since +120 odds offer a more favorable payout than +110).
Recency bias
The concept of “recency bias” can be a confounding factor in any endeavor that involves placing money on sporting events. (i.e., not just in sports betting, but in daily fantasy sports as well, for example). Recency bias is the concept of allowing recent performances of a team/player to affect a current wager.
This concept is straightforward to illustrate with respect to win totals bets. One good example is the case of the 2020 New England Patriots. The Pats total was 8.5 wins. A bettor allowing recency bias to creep in would go by the Patriots’ long stretch of dominance (17 straight seasons of double-digit wins prior to the 2020 season) in placing a bet on New England exceeding that figure.
However, since Tom Brady decided to bolt Foxboro, and with Bill Belichick dealing with a depleted roster – the Patriots wound up going 7-9.
Inflated lines
The concept of “inflated lines” ties into recency bias to a large extent, as the latter often helps lead to the former. Inflated lines are the byproduct of the betting public heavily favoring one side of a bet over the other. Many times, that’s a result of the public allowing recency bias to affect their betting decisions.
To further explain, oddsmakers initially set a line where they estimate equal action on either side of the wager. However, once the line is released, its future movement will largely be determined by how much money is coming in on each side. When betting decisions heavily influenced by recency bias are being made by a large percentage of the public, this can lead to inflated lines that can be ripe for exploitation by a smart bettor.
The aforementioned case of the 2020 Patriots is a textbook example. And the same could apply to a number of teams that underwhelmed last season (see examples in the first section). Or, this could apply to teams that underperformed for the last several seasons. However, these teams can experience exponential improvement due to the ability to add multiple impact players this offseason. Together with the ongoing development of current pieces, these factors are not fully accounted for in the market.
In examples such as these, “fading the public” is a strategy to consider. Especially if the odds and research for the less popular side of the wager justify the investment.