The NFL season is underway and sportsbooks are starting to adjust their Season long over under win totals. Projected elite teams like the Tampa Bay Buccaneers had football win totals odds set around 11.5 wins before the season starts while cellar-dwellers like the New York Jets had season long over totals around 5.5 wins. Check out live NFL win totals odds for all 32 teams below.
We will also dish out NFL season long win totals betting analysis for each team below the odds table.
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NFL win totals
Win totals for the 2022 NFL season have been posted at legal sportsbooks. Check them out below and click to bet now.
Over/Under win totals shown below are the best available prices on the over.
Arizona Cardinals: Over/Under
The Cardinals’ win total continues to drop from 9 to 7.5 wins across the board despite the fact that they came back to beat the Raiders in OT in Week 2. Their secondary has been a sieve thus far, and DeAndre Hopkins is suspended for two more games.
Atlanta Falcons: Over/Under
Never expected to win at the Rams, the Falcons hold steady at 4.5 wins at most books, but DraftKings is offering an even 4 wins with -120 odds on the Over. Marcus Mariota has given this offense a new dimension, which should make for more close games.
Baltimore Ravens: Over/Under
The Ravens coughed up a 35-21 lead to the Dolphins in the fourth quarter, but remain the AFC North favorites with a 10.5-win projected total.
Buffalo Bills: Over/Under
Looking every part the Super Bowl favorites, the Bills have outscored two returning playoff teams by a total of 55 points over their first two games. They can take control of the AFC East with a win in Miami next week.
Carolina Panthers: Over/Under
The Panthers (5.5 wins) have dropped one win across the board after losing another close game to open the season with an 0-2 record. They have three home games coming up against the Saints, Cardinals, and 49ers.
Chicago Bears: Over/Under
Justin Fields has only attempted 45 passes through two games as the Bears try to establish the run behind what might be the worst offensive line in football. Their win total remains unchanged after two weeks, but their odds have shortened on the Over.
Cincinnati Bengals: Over/Under
When Joe Burrow committed five turnovers in a Week 1 loss, the Bengals moved from 10 to 8.5 at some books, and that is the consensus projection across the board after they dropped. another close game in Dallas.
Cleveland Browns: Over/Under
The Browns were a hair away from starting 2-0 when their rookie kicker missed an extra point and they failed to recover an onside kick in the final minutes to take a gut-punching loss to the Jets. After a players’ only meeting, they host the Steelers Thursday night.
Dallas Cowboys: Over/Under
When Dak Prescott (hand) was injured in Week 1, the Cowboys saw a huge drop in their projected win total from 10 to 7.5, but they’re back up to 8.5 after Cooper Rush looked serviceable and Micah Parsons looked unstoppable in a Week 2 win over the Bengals.
Denver Broncos: Over/Under
New head coach Nathaniel Hackett has basically admitted that he’s overwhelmed in his first year at the helm and the Broncos looked very shaky under his leadership in their home opener against the Texans. Their projection moves from 10 to 9.5 or even 9 wins at some books.
Detroit Lions: Over/Under
The Lions’ projection was bumped up 0.5 wins across the board after they raced out to a huge lead and hung on to beat Washington. Their offense looks versatile and impressive.
Green Bay Packers Over/Under
Aaron Rodgers and the Green Bay Packers offense got back on track in a Sunday Night win over the visiting Bears. They face a much stiffer challenge next week against the Bucs.
Houston Texans Over/Under
The Texans have done a lot of things right during a 0-1-1 start but failed to close out the Colts or Broncos in close losses. Their projection remains unchanged with close to even odds in either direction.
Indianapolis Colts Over/Under
After failing to win as a huge road favorite in Week 1, the Colts got absolutely crushed in Jacksonville to start 0-1-1. They saw the biggest decrease in their win projection from 9.5 to 7.5 wins but remain short on Indy going Over that projection.
Jacksonville Jaguars Over/Under
The Jaguars are back to their preseason projection of 6.5 wins after Trevor Lawrence led an efficient effort and their defense stymied the Colts in a division win. Jacksonville (1-1) is leading the AFC South through two weeks.
Kansas City Chiefs Over/Under
The Chiefs survived a close test from the Chargers last Thursday night and their projection is back up to 11.5 wins after an impressive 2-0 start.
Las Vegas Raiders Over/Under
Derek Carr and his receivers were clicking on all cylinders early in the Raiders’ home opener, but they seemed to lose all momentum when Kyler Murray led a dramatic comeback. Their projection is down from 8.5 to 7.5 wins at some books after an 0-2 start under new HC Josh McDaniels.
LA Chargers Over/Under
Justin Herbert (ribs) is listed as day-to-day but is expected to suit up in Week 3, so the Charger’s win projection remains fixed at 10.5, with DraftKings offering a market on 11 wins. Their defense looks truly elite, which gives them a chance even if Chase Daniel has to start a couple of games.
LA Rams Over/Under
While they nearly blew 28-3 lead at home against the Falcons, the Rams got in the win column and are now looking at minus odds of going Over 10.5 wins as they enter NFC West play at Arizona in Week 3.
Miami Dolphins Over/Under
The Dolphins moved up from 9 to 9.5 wins at most books following their win over the Patriots, and their projection hasn’t changed much despite their comeback win in Baltimore. A couple of books now project them for 10.5 wins with the Bills (-5.5) coming to town this Sunday.
Minnesota Vikings Over/Under
While their offense looked flat and their defense couldn’t slow down Jalen Hurts in a bad Monday night loss at Philly, the Vikings’ projection remains locked at 10.5 wins, but their odds on the Over have flipped to +115 or better at most books.
New England Patriots Over/Under
The Patriots moved to 1-1 after grinding out a low-scoring win in Pittsburgh. This team is built to ride its run game and defense on a weekly basis, and that makes them underdogs to top 8.5 wins in today’s pass-happy league.
New Orleans Saints Over/Under
Jameis Winston (back) and Alvin Kamara (ribs) are banged up early as the Saints try to maintain some consistency on offense in the post-Sean Payton era. They’re getting plus odds at some books to top a projection of 8.5 wins.
New York Giants Over/Under
The Giants have moved up from 7 to 7.5 at some books after their Week 1 win. And now, they’re at 8.5 across the board after winning a close game against the Panthers. They have a key Monday night test against Dallas this week.
New York Jets Over/Under
The Jets stunned the Browns to move to 1-1. But oddsmakers aren’t budging on their projected win total. Some books are offering even money or slightly plus odds for the Jets to go Under 5.5 wins.
Philadelphia Eagless Over/Under
The Eagles are the biggest riser after a Week 2 thrashing of the Vikings, as Jalen Hurts i rising quickly up the MVP ladder. They move from 9.5 to 11.5 wins with the easiest schedule in the NFL the rest of the way.
Pittsburgh Steelers Over/Under
Pittsburgh’s defense looked far less formidable without T.J. Watt (pectoral) as they took a close loss to the Patriots. Their projection is locked at 7.5 wins with varying odds on the Over.
San Francisco 49ers Over/Under
Trey Lance suffered a season-ending injury and Jimmy Garoppolo stepped in to seal a win over the Seahawks. The Niners are still sitting at a 9.5-win projection, and their odds have shortened on the Over.
Seattle Seahawks Over/Under
The Seahawks moved up from 5.5 to 6.5 wins at most books after upsetting the Broncos and surprisingly stand pat at that projection after looking feeble in a loss at San Francisco. They’re closer to even money with a 6-win projection at FanDuel and Caesars.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers Over/Under
Since the NFC looks so weak, the Bucs are up from 11.5 to 12.5 wins at most books, despite the fact that they’re dealing with a rash of injuries on offense. Their defense looks strong enough to carry them as it did in Week 2 against the Saints.
Tennessee Titans Over/Under
The Titans opened the season with a 9-win projection and are falling fast after blowing their home opener against the Giants and looking non-competitive in a blowout loss at Buffalo.
Washington Commanders Over/Under
There was still a good price on Washington to go under 8.5 wins at some books before the Commanders struggled in a loss at Detroit. Now, they’re projected for 7.5 wins, with relatively even odds across the board.
Here is a look at what NFL win totals looked like at DraftKings Sportsbook on Aug. 22, just a few weeks before the start of the 2022 regular season.
| Team | Projected Win Total | Over Price | Under Price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Tampa Bay Buccaneers | 11.5 | Over 11.5 (+110) | Under 11.5 (-130) |
| Buffalo Bills | 11.5 | Over 11.5 (-140) | Under 11.5 (+120) |
| Green Bay Packers | 11 | Over 11 (-110) | Under 11 (-110) |
| Kansas City Chiefs | 10.5 | Over 10.5 (-120) | Under 10.5 (+100) |
| LA Rams | 10.5 | Over 10.5 (+105) | Under 10.5 (-125) |
| Dallas Cowboys | 10 | Over 10 (-110) | Under 10 (-110) |
| San Francisco 49ers | 10 | Over 10 (-110) | Under 10 (-110) |
| LA Chargers | 10 | Over 10 (-140) | Under 10 (+120) |
| Cincinnati Bengals | 10 | Over 10 (+100) | Under 10 (-120) |
| Denver Broncos | 10 | Over 10 (-110) | Under 10 (-110) |
| Indianapolis Colts | 10 | Over 10 (-105) | Under 10 (-115) |
| Baltimore Ravens | 9.5 | Over 9.5 (-160) | Under 9.5 (+130) |
| Philadelphia Eagles | 9.5 | Over 9.5 (-150) | Under 9.5 (+125) |
| Tennessee Titans | 9 | Over 9 (-105) | Under 9 (-115) |
| Miami Dolphins | 9 | Over 9 (+110) | Under 9 (-120) |
| Minnesota Vikings | 9 | Over 9 (-130) | Under 9 (+110) |
| Arizona Cardinals | 8.5 | Over 8.5 (-110) | Under 8.5 (-110) |
| Las Vegas Raiders | 8.5 | Over 8.5 (-130) | Under 8.5 (+110) |
| New England Patriots | 8.5 | Over 8.5 (-120) | Under 8.5 (+100) |
| Cleveland Browns | 8.5 | Over 8.5 (+110) | Under 8.5 (-140) |
| New Orleans Saints | 8.5 | Over 8.5 (-105) | Under 8.5 (-115) |
| Washington Commanders | 8 | Over 8 (+100) | Under 8 (-120) |
| Pittsburgh Steelers | 7.5 | Over 7.5 (+100) | Under 7.5 (-120) |
| New York Giants | 7 | Over 7 (-110) | Under 7 (-110) |
| Chicago Bears | 6.5 | Over 6.5 (+150) | Under 6.5 (-190) |
| Jacksonville Jaguars | 6.5 | Over 6.5 (+110) | Under 6.5 (-130) |
| Detroit Lions | 6.5 | Over 6.5 (-125) | Under 6.5 (+105) |
| Carolina Panthers | 6.5 | Over 6.5 (-110) | Under 6.5 (-110) |
| Seattle Seahawks | 5.5 | Over 5.5 (-125) | Under 5.5 (+105) |
| New York Jets | 5.5 | Over 5.5 (-160) | Under 5.5 (+130) |
| Atlanta Falcons | 5 | Over 5 (+125) | Under 5 (-145) |
| Houston Texans | 4.5 | Over 4.5 (+100) | Under 4.5 (-120) |
Best football betting sites
Check out the best NFL betting sites below.
Last season’s over/under win totals
A look at the projected season over/under win totals for each team in the league from the pre-season from last year. The totals were from DraftKings Sportsbook (Sept. 7).
| Team | Win Totals Over Unders |
|---|---|
| Kansas City Chiefs | 12.5 wins |
| Tampa Bay Buccaneers | 12 wins |
| Baltimore Ravens | 11 wins |
| Buffalo Bills | 11 wins |
| Cleveland Browns | 10.5 wins |
| LA Rams | 10.5 wins |
| San Francisco 49ers | 10.5 wins |
| Green Bay Packers | 10 wins |
| Seattle Seahawks | 10 wins |
| New England Patriots | 9.5 wins |
| LA Chargers | 9.5 wins |
| Miami Dolphins | 9.5 wins |
| Indianapolis Colts | 9 wins |
| Dallas Cowboys | 9 wins |
| Tennessee Titans | 9 wins |
| New Orleans Saints | 9 wins |
| Minnesota Vikings | 8.5 wins |
| Pittsburgh Steelers | 8.5 wins |
| Denver Broncos | 8.5 wins |
| Arizona Cardinals | 8.5 wins |
| Washington Commanders | 8.5 wins |
| Carolina Panthers | 7.5 wins |
| Chicago Bears | 7.5 wins |
| Atlanta Falcons | 7.5 wins |
| New York Giants | 7 wins |
| Las Vegas Raiders | 7 wins |
| Cincinnati Bengals | 6.5 wins |
| Philadelphia Eagles | 6.5 wins |
| Jacksonville Jaguars | 6.5 wins |
| New York Jets | 6 wins |
| Detroit Lions | 4.5 wins |
| Houston Texans | 4 wins |
How to bet win totals
Sports bettors had to do some major adjusting ahead of last season. Teams played 17 games each in the regular season for the first time. Most impacted from a betting perspective is the always-popular NFL Win Totals market.
No longer will teams finish the regular season with 10-6 or 5-11 records. Instead, 10-6 could turn into 11-6 and 5-11 could turn into 5-12. An extra game has had a big impact on projecting how many games a team will win and lose.
Still, over – under bets are one of the more straightforward futures wagers available. Moreover, since they involve handicapping a team’s outlook for the coming season, they’re appealing even to novice bettors, considering NFL fans typically have strong opinions on each team in the league.
Win totals bets fall under the category of a “futures” bet. As their name implies, futures bets are wagers placed on events that won’t be “settled” until a future date. For example, in the case of win totals bets, the wagers are based on the number of victories a team is projected to garner in the coming regular season of that particular sport. The wagers are made available before the start of that regular season and therefore require a certain amount of research on the part of the bettor in terms of a team’s prospects before a decision is made.
In a win totals bet, the oddsmaker sets a number for the projected amount of victories a team will garner in the coming season. A bettor then decides whether they want to place their money on the team either failing to meet or exceeding that threshold. Either side of the bet will have odds assigned to it that determine the rate of payout if the wager is successful.
The odds are represented in the form of a number with a “-“ or “+” next to them. These denote the rate at which a bettor will be paid out if the wager is successful. As a rule of thumb, the number with a “-“ next to it represents the amount of money a bettor would need to risk to win $100. Conversely, a number with a “+” attached represents the amount of money a bettor would win for every $100 wagered. To further illustrate, let’s use a $10 bet as an example.
Let’s suppose the New York Giants are assigned a projected win total of seven victories for the 2022 season. For this first example, we’ll assume the oddsmakers have assigned either side of the bet -110 odds. That means that whether you bet on the Giants falling short of or exceeding seven wins, you’ll have the same rate of payout if your bet is successful. In this case, with the bet having -110 odds all the way around, the $10 bet would pay out a profit of $9.09. The bettor would therefore receive a total of $19.09 in return (the original $10 wagered, plus the profit amount).
Utilizing the same wager, let’s say oddsmakers have instead made the odds for the Giants finishing over seven wins at +120 and left the under side of the wager at -110. In this case, bettors putting faith in New York taking a sizable leap forward next season and exceeding seven wins would realize a $12 profit if their side of the bet is correct. The better would therefore receive a total of $22.00 in return (the original $10 wagered, plus the profit amount).
Where to find win totals bets at online sportsbooks
As mentioned earlier, win totals bets fall under the umbrella of futures bets. They are not difficult to locate within online sportsbooks.
Typically, a bettor first navigates toward the offseason sport they wish to place a win totals bet for. In the case of NFL wins totals bets, the bettor would then look for a “NFL Futures” tab within the NFL section. The win totals bets are often further segregated under a “Team Futures” tab and a “Regular-season Wins” sub-section.
It’s also worth noting that in the early stages of the offseason, not every online sportsbook has win totals bets readily available. Some wait until the dust settles on important events such as the NFL Draft before rolling out their projected totals.
Strategy for betting win totals
Line shopping
As is the case with most any purchase, being a smart and patient shopper when placing a wager can pay off nicely over time. The commodity one is evaluating/looking for the best price on when betting projected win totals is the projected number of wins that is set (likely to have low-to-no variance across most sportsbooks) and its corresponding odds (more likely to have variance across sportsbooks).
As an example, say Sportsbook A sets the Jacksonville Jaguars’ win total at 6.5 wins. The odds for under 6.5 wins are set at -110, while the odds on over 6.5 wins are set at +110. Meanwhile, Sportsbook B places the odds of under 6.5 wins at -120 and odds on over at +120.
In such an instance, a bettor wishing to bet under 6.5 wins would be best served going to Sportsbook A (as -110 odds offer a more favorable payout than -120) and one wishing to bet over 6.5 wins would be best served going to Sportsbook B (since +120 odds offer a more favorable payout than +110).
Recency bias
The concept of “recency bias” can be a confounding factor in any endeavor that involves placing money on sporting events (i.e., not just sports betting, but in daily fantasy sports as well, for example). Simply put, recency bias is the concept of allowing the performances of a team/player in the recent past to affect a decision on a current wager.
This concept is straightforward to illustrate with respect to win totals bets. One good example is the case of the 2020 New England Patriots. The Pats total was 8.5 wins. A bettor allowing recency bias to creep in would go by the Patriots’ long stretch of dominance (17 straight seasons of double-digit wins prior to the 2020 season) in placing a bet on New England exceeding that figure.
However, since Tom Brady decided to bolt Foxboro, and with Bill Belichick dealing with a depleted roster – the Patriots wound up going 7-9.
Inflated lines
The concept of “inflated lines” ties into recency bias to a large extent, as the latter often helps lead to the former. Inflated lines are the byproduct of the betting public heavily favoring one side of a bet over the other. Many times, that’s a result of the public allowing recency bias to affect their betting decisions.
To further explain, oddsmakers initially set a line at a point where they estimate they’ll be able to get close to equal action on either side of the wager. However, once the line is released, its future movement will largely be determined by how much money is coming in on each side. When betting decisions heavily influenced by recency bias are being made by a large percentage of the public, this can lead to inflated lines that can be ripe for exploitation by a smart bettor.
The aforementioned case of the 2020 Patriots is a textbook example. And the same could apply to a number of teams that underwhelmed last season (see examples in the first section) or for the last several seasons but are reaching a tipping point of exponential improvement due to their ability to add multiple impact players this offseason and the ongoing development of their existing pieces.
In examples such as these, “fading the public” is a strategy to consider, if the odds and research for the less popular side of the wager justify the investment.