NFL Win Totals 2020

The confetti on the Kansas City Chiefs’ victory parade has barely been cleared, but we’re already starting to see 2020 projected win totals roll in at legal, regulated sportsbooks. This bet type is one of the more straightforward futures wagers available. Moreover, since they involve handicapping a team’s outlook for the coming season, they’re appealing even to novice bettors, considering NFL fans typically has strong opinions on each team in the league.

Win totals bets do have an added layer of risk attached at this point in the offseason. Free agency and the NFL draft can naturally bring about significant overhauls for any given club. With that said, there will undoubtedly be action throughout the coming months on these types of wagers. As such, let’s delve into some of the fundamentals of 2020 win totals bets, beginning with a look at the current totals and five teams that could take notable leaps forward next season.

NFL win totals 2020

 

Check back to this page for more win totals as they are released by sportsbooks.

Five teams to watch in 2020

Miami Dolphins

A team that finished 5-4 over its last nine games and has 17 draft picks – including three in the first round — this coming April automatically has some sunny prospects for next season. Throw in nearly $85 million in cap room to start the offseason and you’ve got a recipe for an exponential leap forward in 2020.

The quarterback position will naturally be a key once again. There are questions as to whether Ryan Fitzpatrick can replicate his magic for a second straight season. The veteran is widely assumed to be the starter to open the campaign irrespective of whether Miami snags a blue-chipper such as Tua Tagovailoa in the draft. The good news for Fitzpatrick is that outside of 2019, the best seasons of his career have come with new offensive coordinator Chan Gailey calling his plays.

Depending on how free agency and the draft unfolds for the Dolphins, they could certainly become a trendy favorite of the public. That could ultimately prove justified, so getting in on the over of the marginal 5.5 wins they’re projected for at FOX Bet could be prudent.

Las Vegas Raiders

Like the Dolphins, the Raiders showed some promise in a non-playoff season in 2019 and also have an avalanche of resources to work with this offseason. Las Vegas has just under $55 million in cap room as the offseason starts, along with two first-round picks in April. Those will be the fourth and fifth selections in the opening round over the last two seasons for the Silver and Black, and with Mike Mayock and Jon Gruden heavily influencing how that capital is invested, there’s an excellent chance a good portion of them pan out.

However, the big free-agent elephant in the room is Tom Brady, who the Raiders have already expressed a clear interest in pursuing if he indeed hits the open market come mid-March. A Gruden-Brady partnership is a potential dream scenario which would boost 2020 expectations a significant degree. And, with both cash and enough draft picks at their disposal, Las Vegas should have the ability to add an impact pass-catcher or two to make a Brady acquisition worthwhile.

New York Giants

With a 4-12 mark that earned head coach Pat Shurmur a pink slip, the Giants aren’t exactly viewed as a team on the rise heading into the offseason. However, a more nuanced look at Big Blue’s debacle of a 2019 season would be prudent when considering their chances of drastic improvement next season. New York’s offense was particularly besieged by injury. Daniel Jones, Saquon Barkley, Sterling Shepard and Evan Engram were among key pieces that spent multiple games sidelined. Golden Tate also missed the first four games of the season due to suspension.

The outlook is sunnier for 2020. Jones provided plenty of reason for optimism and was able to get 13 games of valuable NFL experience under his belt. Engram should finally be back to full health after finishing the season on injured reserve due to his foot issues. Barkley and Shepard will also be raring to go after injury-marred seasons, while rookie speedster Darius Slayton (48-740-8) looks like a Pro Bowler in waiting.

Then, New York is armed with close to $60 million in cap room as the offseason begins and doesn’t have many key re-signings on its plate outside of linebacker Markus Golden. New York will likely utilize plenty of resources on upgrading its mostly broken defense, and with some smart choices on that end, they could see a big turnaround.

Washington Redskins

This certainly won’t be the first offseason in the Dan Snyder era that the Redskins enter with a boatload of cap room (estimated $93 million). In fact, they’ve often been derisively labeled as the champions of the offseason for multiple waves of big free-agent signings over the years, acquisitions that have repeatedly failed to pay dividends.

There’s reason to think this time around might be a bit different for Washington, or at least the start of a path back to respectability. That’s largely due to the presence of new head coach Ron Rivera and his staff. The former Carolina Panthers’ head man is certainly capable of moving the needle. The presence of Jack Del Rio as defensive coordinator could also yield rapid returns. Meanwhile, Scott Turner is a promising offensive coordinator that could play an integral role in the development of sophomore signal-caller Dwayne Haskins.

Finally, consider Washington is armed with the No. 2 overall pick, giving them the ability to potentially upgrade any non-quarterback position by a substantial margin instantly.

Arizona Cardinals

The verdict on whether Kliff Kingsbury’s Air Raid attack could succeed at the NFL level is mostly in after one season. There’s solid evidence supporting its viability, with likely ongoing tweaks, of course. Kyler Murray performed well enough in the system to garner Rookie of the Year honors and was able to avail himself of a full season’s worth of playing experience.

Then, although David Johnson appeared to mostly be a poor fit for the offense, mid-season acquisition Kenyan Drake took to it like the proverbial duck to water. Arizona will have to get the unrestricted free agent under contract. Assuming it does, Kingsbury may have his lead back for the foreseeable future.

Offseason priorities besides Drake will likely include adding at least one more impact receiver to complement Christian Kirk and Larry Fitzgerald, shoring up an offensive line that allowed Murray to get hit way too often in his rookie season, and significantly upgrading the tight end position.

Given Murray’s widespread name recognition/popularity, the Cardinals could also see plenty of expectations hoisted upon them by the public should they make waves in free agency and the draft.

How to bet win totals

Win totals bets fall under the category of a “futures” bet. As their name implies, futures bets are wagers placed on events that won’t be “settled” until a future date.  For example, in the case of win totals bets, the wagers are based on the amount of victories a team is projected to garner in the coming regular season of that particular sport. The wagers are made available before the start of that regular season and therefore require a certain amount of research on the part of the bettor in terms of a team’s prospects before a decision is made.

In a win totals bet, the oddsmaker sets a number for the projected amount of victories a team will garner in the coming season. A bettor then decides whether they want to place their money on the team either failing to meet or exceeding that threshold. Either side of the bet will have odds assigned to it that determine the rate of payout if the wager is successful.

The odds are represented in the form of a number with a “-“ or “+” next to them. These denote the rate at which a bettor will be paid out if the wager is successful. As a rule of thumb, the number with a “-“ next to it represents the amount of money a bettor would need to risk to win $100. Conversely a number with a “+” attached represents the amount of money a bettor would win for every $100 wagered. To further illustrate, let’s use a $10 bet for an example.

Let’s suppose the Miami Dolphins are assigned a projected win total of seven victories for the 2020 season. For this first example, we’ll assume the oddsmakers have assigned either side of the bet -110 odds. That means that whether you bet on Miami falling short of or exceeding seven wins, you’ll have the same rate of payout if your bet is successful. In this case, with the bet having -110 odds all the way around, the $10 bet would pay out a profit of $9.09. The bettor would therefore receive a total of $19.09 in return (the original $10 wagered, plus the profit amount).

Utilizing the same wager, let’s say oddsmakers have instead made the odds for the Dolphins finishing over seven wins at +120 and left the under side of the wager at -110. In this case, bettors putting faith in Miami taking a sizable leap forward next season and exceeding seven wins would realize a $12 profit if their side of the bet is correct. The better would therefore receive a total of $22.00 in return  (the original $10 wagered, plus the profit amount).

Where to find win totals bets at online sportsbooks

As mentioned earlier, win totals bets fall under the umbrella of futures bets. They are not difficult to locate within an online sportsbooks.

Typically, a bettor first navigates toward the offseason sport they wish to place a win totals bet for. In the case of NFL wins totals bets, the bettor would then look for a “NFL Futures” tab within the NFL section. The win totals bets are often further segregated under a “Team Futures” tab and a “Regular-season Wins” sub-section.

It’s also worth noting that in the early stages of the offseason, not every online sportsbook has win totals bets readily available. Some, such as DraftKings Sportsbook and FanDuel Sportsbook, wait until the dust settles on important events such as free agency and the draft before rolling out their projected totals. Others, such as FOX Bet, made an initial selection of projected win totals available in early February.

Strategy for betting win totals

Line shopping

As is the case with most any purchase, being a smart and patient shopper when placing a wager can pay off nicely over time. The commodity one is evaluating/looking for the best price on when betting projected win totals is the projected number of wins that is set (likely to have low-to-no variance across most sportsbooks) and its corresponding odds (more likely to have variance across sportsbooks).

As an example, say Sportsbook A sets the Miami Dolphins’ win total at six wins. The odds for under six wins is set at -110, while odds on over six wins is set at +110. Meanwhile, Sportsbook B places the odds of under six wins at -120 and odds on over at +120.

In such an instance, a bettor wishing to bet under six wins would be best served going to Sportsbook A (as -110 odds offer a more favorable payout than -120) and one wishing to bet over six wins would be best served going to Sportsbook B (since  +120 odds offer a more favorable payout than +110).

Recency bias

The concept of “recency bias” can be a confounding factor in any endeavor that involves placing money on sporting events (i.e., not just sports betting, but in daily fantasy sports as well, for example). Simply put, recency bias is the concept of allowing the performances of a team/player in the recent past to affect a decision on a current wager.

This concept is straightforward to illustrate with respect to win totals bets. Say a bettor is considering placing a win totals bet on the New England Patriots for the 2020 season at this stage of the offseason. The total for the Patriots opened at 9.5 wins.  A bettor allowing recency bias to creep in would go by the Patriots’ long stretch of dominance (17 straight seasons of double-digit wins) in placing a bet on New England exceeding that figure in the pre-free-agency-portion of the offseason.

However, say Tom Brady does what’s been widely assumed as unthinkable and heads to another team once he officially hits the open market. New England is therefore forced to start second-year signal-caller Jarrett Stidham in 2020 and consequently takes a notable step back, falling short of nine wins for the first time since 2002.

In that example, the recency bias engendered by the Pats’ long stretch of success easily coaxed a bettor to assume that another 10-win season at minimum was about as automatic as it gets. However, in this case, not accounting for current circumstances would have cost that bettor money.

Inflated lines

The concept of “inflated lines” ties into recency bias to a large extent, as the latter often helps lead to the former. Inflated lines are the byproduct of the betting public heavily favoring one side of a bet over the other. Many times, that’s a result of the public allowing recency bias to affect their betting decisions.

To further explain, oddsmakers initially set a line at a point where they estimate they’ll be able to get close to equal action on either side of the wager. However, once the line is released, its future movement will largely be determined by how much money is coming in on each side. When betting decisions heavily influenced by recency bias are being made by a large percentage of the public, this can lead to inflated lines that can be ripe for exploitation by a smart bettor.

The aforementioned case of the Patriots’ 2020 win total could ultimately prove to be a textbook example over time. And the same could apply to a number of teams that underwhelmed last season (see examples in the first section) or for the last several seasons but are reaching a tipping point of exponential improvement due to their ability to add multiple impact players this offseason and the ongoing development of their existing pieces.

In examples such as these, “fading the public” is a strategy to consider, if the odds and research for the less popular side of the wager justify the investment.

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