The 2020-21 NFL season is here and sportsbooks are offering a wide variety of season-long and weekly proposition bets. On this page, we’ll look at the various player props available for running backs at legal sportsbooks in the US this season.
Prior to the season, this page will cover the regular season rushing props for the most yards, touchdowns, and individual propositions for high-profile running backs. Once the season begins and those bets are finalized, we’ll provide weekly updates on the rushing props offered each week.
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RB rushing props 2020
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Most RB rushing yards
This wager propositions bettors to predict which player will compile the most rushing yards over the course of the season. Last year, Saquon Barkley had the highest individual prop with a prediction of 1,350.5 yards, but his season was shortened by injuries. Derrick Henry was tied for the second-highest projection (1,175.5 yards) and wound up leading the NFL with 1,540 rushing yards. A preseason bet on Henry to lead the NFL in rushing could have been found with approximately +800 odds, meaning a $10 bet on Henry to become rushing champ profited $80.
Most RB rushing TDs
This prop asks bettors to predict which player will compile the most rushing scores over the course of the season. There is plenty of overlap with the favorites to lead the NFL in rushing yards, but some tailbacks are considered more likely to convert short rushing scores. Derrick Henry also led the NFL in rushing scores last year with 16, and his preseason odds only trailed Barkley in that category as well. A $20 bet on Henry to lead the league in rushing TDs would’ve paid out approximately $160 if found at +800 odds.
RB totals: Rushing yards over/under
Prop bets on individual players are available on a season-long and on a weekly basis. For example, Dalvin Cook is projected to rush for 1,050.5 yards over the course of the season (-110 odds at DraftKings Sportsbook) and will likely be projected to rush for somewhere between 60 and 90 yards in the Vikings Week 1 matchup against Green Bay on September 13. Weekly prop bets are usually available a few days before kickoff.
RB totals: Rushing TDs over/under
The same props are available to predict how many rushing touchdowns a player will compile on a season-long or on a weekly basis. The projected number is usually in single digits, with only 7 players topping 10 rushing scores last year. On a weekly basis, player props for rushing scores will usually be offered with a decimal such as 1.5 or 2.5 rushing scores, to avoid a “push” where the player hits exactly 2 rushing scores and the bettor simply gets their wager back.
RB totals: Rushing + receiving yards over/under
In an increasingly pass-heavy league, many RBs are piling up yardage as runners and receivers. Christian McCaffrey and Alvin Kamara are the prime examples of those dual threats, and are amongst the RBs listed with rushing + receiving props. This prop can also be listed as the scrimmage yards and will be projected somewhere around 1,000 yards on a season-long basis. These bets are also available on a weekly basis and adjust depending on matchups and other factors.
Who have the most rushing yards in 2020?
Derrick Henry is once again expected to lead the NFL in rushing yards with +750 odds at FanDuel Sportsbook. Saquon Barkely (+950), Ezekiel Elliott (+1000), and Nick Chubb (+1000) are also in the mix at that sportsbook.
When predicting the rushing champion, it’s important to not only factor in health and talent, but also team situation. Which teams will be able to play from ahead and commit to the run game? Which players will receive the lion’s share of carries with no real competition in their backfield?
Elliott is a prime candidate to benefit from positive game flow with the Cowboys strong on both sides of the ball. He is also running behind what is still one of the strongest offensive lines in football and has no real competition for work on early downs or at the goal line. Chubb is another intriguing pick where available at +1,000 odds, but he could lose carries to Kareem Hunt more often this year. So Elliott is the safe bet with the most value considering he’s twice led the NFL in rushing (2016 and 2018) and handled at least 300 carries in 3 of his 4 NFL seasons.
If you’re looking for a longshot to become rushing champion, consider David Johnson at +3500 odds (FanDuel Sportsbook). The 28-year-old was seriously underutilized in Kliff Kingsbury’s first year as Arizona’s HC, but now he should be featured heavily in Houston’s run-heavy scheme. The Texans posted a 42% rushing play percentage last year, traded for key pieces on their offensive line, and appear to be looking to establish the run via a workhorse back after trading stud WR DeAndre Hopkins for Johnson, who will be very fresh after handling just 94 carries last year.
Colts starting RB Marlon Mack is getting good value at +5000 odds at DraftKings Sportsbook, compared to +3500 at FanDuel. Indy posted the fifth-highest rushing play percentage (46.4%) last year and has one of the top-rated offensive lines in football. Mack has been quite injury prone in his career, but is clearly the primary back for a team that loves to pound the rock and should become more competent overall with Philip Rivers taking over under center.
NFL rushing leaders history
| Year | Player | Team | Yards |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2019 | Derrick Henry | Titans | 1,540 |
| 2018 | Ezekiel Elliott | Cowboys | 1,434 |
| 2017 | Kareem Hunt | Chiefs | 1,327 |
| 2016 | Ezekiel Elliott | Cowboys | 1,631 |
| 2015 | Adrian Peterson | Vikings | 1,485 |
| 2014 | DeMarco Murray | Cowboys | 1,845 |
| 2013 | LeSean McCoy | Eagles | 1,607 |
| 2012 | Adrian Peterson | Vikings | 2,097 |
| 2011 | Maurice Jones-Drew | Jaguars | 1,606 |
| 2010 | Arian Foster | Texans | 1,616 |
| 2009 | Chris Johnson | Titans | 2,006 |
| 2008 | Adrian Peterson | Vikings | 1,760 |
| 2007 | LaDainian Tomlinson | Chargers | 1,474 |
| 2006 | LaDainian Tomlinson | Chargers | 1,815 |
| 2005 | Shaun Alexander | Seahawks | 1,880 |
| 2004 | Curtis Martin | Jets | 1,697 |
| 2003 | Jamal Lewis | Ravens | 2,066 |
| 2002 | Ricky Williams | Dolphins | 1,853 |
| 2001 | Priest Holmes | Chiefs | 1,555 |
| 2000 | Edgerrin James | Colts | 1,709 |