The NFL is back! This page will provide betting odds and player props from legal US betting sites as well as tips and insights to help you put your money in the right place throughout the season.
On this page we’ll highlight the key regular-season player passing props and QB futures (eg. who will win the league MVP). Then, during the regular season, we’ll add the list of weekly passing props as well as advantageous matchups, key injuries, and other relevant factors to consider.
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QB passing props 2020
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Most QB passing yards
The bet itself is pretty straightforward – the NFL player with the most passing yards after every team finishes their Week 17 games wins this bet. Looking back at last year’s winner, Jameis Winston threw the ball 626 times for 5,109 yards. Most sportsbooks had him at (+1000) to lead the league in passing yards, about fifth on the list of QBs most likely to do so. That means for every $100 placed on the Bucs starting QB to throw for the most yards yielded the bettor $1000 (eg. a $500 wager returned $5,000).
Odds for placing a futures bet will always be juicy considering fans haven’t seen any of their potential choices play a meaningful snap in at least 8 months. But Jameis’s 2019 odds were actually seen as fantastic to most sharks who felt the market was offering a discount on him due to his polarizing stature in the NFL world, which lowered his odds too far.
Most QB passing touchdowns
Also pretty straightforward, the NFL player with the most passing touchdowns after every team finishes their Week 17 games wins this bet. Interestingly, over the last 12 seasons only Drew Brees has led the league in passing TDs twice, doing it back-to-back in 2011 and 2012. Last year’s winner, Lamar Jackson with 36 throws for touchdowns, didn’t even have odds available since they were so astronomical.
QB totals: Passing yards over/under
In this market, bettors can select a specific quarterback and find a set number designated as his O/U total. For instance, Patrick Mahomes, the consensus best QB in the league, will likely receive the largest futures O/U total on most gambling sites. His O/U total will likely be around 4,500 yards, allowing you to choose between Over that amount or Under it. If you think Mahomes will throw for more than 4,500 yards and he throws 4,501 yards or more, you’re a winner. Once again, these futures bets will yield you great odds, often paying out a wager on the player with the highest odds at around (+500), eg. a $100 wager returns $500.
Once the regular season begins, there will be weekly O/U totals available for each player in this market as well. These payouts are usually much smaller, hovering around (+100) – (-250). The obvious benefit over playing futures bets, however, is that you have more context and recent examples to base your decisions upon throughout the season.
QB totals: Passing TDs over/under
Here we use the same concept as our previous market while using a different measurement. Taking Mahomes for our example once again, if his O/U total for touchdowns thrown is set at 35.5, you need to choose if you think he’ll throw for Over or Under that total. If he throws for 35 TDs or less in this scenario, an Under bet will win. If he throws for 36 or more, an Over bet will win.
Once again, like the O/U for passing yards, there will be weekly passing touchdown props for players with accompanying advice throughout the season listed on this page.
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Who will throw for the most passing yards in 2020?
Let’s take a deeper dive into a few futures passing bets, starting with which QB will throw for the most passing yards this upcoming season. The top four candidates most likely to end next season with the most passing yards are Patrick Mahomes, Dak Prescott, Matt Ryan, and Tom Brady. A couple of key factors to consider are things such as: The team’s strength of schedule (specifically, the strength of the defenses they will face), offensive weapons, and overall philosophy – for example, does a team often step off the gas when winning and start running the ball in the second half or do they go for the kill and come out throwing in the pivotal 3rd quarter?
Reigning Super Bowl MVP Pat Mahomes will likely be the unanimous favorite among odds makers and for good reason if you believe in those three considerations. The Chiefs’ SOS is tied for 18th most difficult based on the 2019 records of their opponents. While the offseason comes with a ton of roster change in the NFL, it’s still a relevant metric to consider. More importantly, Mahomes gets to play 6 games against teams who ranked in the bottom 10 against the pass last year in the Raiders (twice), Bucs, Dolphins, Saints, Falcons.
The third-year QB is also returning with a receiving core consisting of Tyreek Hill, Travis Kelce, Sammy Watkins, Mecole Hardman and Demarcus Robinson – that’s an average of about a 4.4 40-yard dash time between them all. Despite missing two games and having a rough 4-game stretch in the middle of the 2019 season, Mahomes still put up 4,031 yards, good for 10th best. With his injury worries behind him and healthy offensive weapons surrounding him, the expectation coming into the 2020 season is that the now-veteran QB will put up numbers closer to 2018, his first season as a starter when he threw for more than 5,000 yards and 50 touchdowns threw the air alone.
Working hardest against Mahomes’ chances at the NFL’s passing yardage crown will be the defensive gauntlet the Chiefs will face at the beginning of the season. After opening the NFL season Week 1 against the Texans in a rematch of the 2019 AFC Championship Game, Kansas City will face four of the top six pass defenses from last year: The Chargers (5th), Ravens (6th), Pats (2nd), Bills (4th). A slow start to the season for Mahomes could put his chances in jeopardy, especially if he doesn’t need to throw in the second half against the cupcake defenses he’ll face in the latter part of the schedule.
Another popular pick for most yards passing will be the Cowboys’ recently franchised QB Dak Prescott, who is set to make more than $31M on his one-year deal for the 2020 season. It’s often risky to bet on a player who’s coming off a contract signing, rather than playing hungry for his next contract. However, Dak likely sees his franchise tag as an insult considering he’s been saying publicly for years he expects a long term contract worth way more than the cumulative $4.9M the Cowboys have paid him through his first four seasons. If he’s going to ink a deal next season for the four-plus-years he claims he deserves, he’ll need to show consistency for 16 more games and add some playoff wins to boot.
Lucky for Dak, he’s going to have at least one of the NFL’s top three set of skill positions around him this season to try and do so. Not only are the Cowboys returning two 1,000-yard receivers in Amari Cooper and Michael Gallup, they also spent their 1st-Round draft pick on rookie wideout CeeDee Lamb who is coming off a Junior season at Oklahoma that saw him put up 14 TDs on top of more than 1,300 yards receiving. Sprinkle in some Zeke Elliot, the league’s second leading rusher last season and the only question is “will there be enough balls to go around?”
Unfortunately for Cowboys’ fans, it’s probably a legitimate question when you consider the addition of new head coach Mike McCarthy. McCarthy became infamous amongst Packers fans over the last four seasons for failing to keep the ball in the hands of his QB Aaron Rodgers. Despite an underwhelming run-blocking offensive line and lackluster RBs before Aaron Jones’ emergence, Rodgers would often throw the bulk of his pass attempts from behind after McCarthy overindulged in an unsuccessful run-game. The combination of lofty expectations and an impatient Cowboy’s fan base could turn things ugly for McCarthy if Dallas’s offense sputters out of the gate.
Matt Ryan will probably rank third on oddsmakers’ lists here, his younger age and consistency with his organization giving him the edge over the ageless Tom Brady. While the Falcons SOS ranks as the fifth hardest this season, only the Cowboys, Bears, and Chargers make up returning top-10 pass defenses. In fact, they’ll play seven games against bottom ten pass defenses from last season, once against the Seahawks, Lions, and Raiders, and twice against the Bucs and Saints.
The additions of tight end Hayden Hurst and running back Todd Gurly should cover up the holes left by Austin Hooper and Devonta Freeman respectively. Factor in another year of development for Ryan’s young star receiver Calivin Ridley playing opposite the incomparable Julio Jones with a healthy O-line (unlike last year) and Ryan should put up even bigger numbers than his already impressive 2019 season.
It seems insane to consider the greatest QB of all time a dark horse candidate for anything, but that’s where we find ourselves when it comes to Tom Brady throwing for the most yards this season. His odds should be close to +1000 on many sites and we don’t need to look further than the 2020 Buccaneers to understand why he’s a great bet with those odds. The Bucs’ SOS is in the middle of the pack at 16th and that shows in the balance of the pass defenses they’ll face – seven games against returning bottom 10 pass defenses and five against returning top 10.
With the weapons currently on their roster, however, Brady and company won’t need to focus on who they’re playing nearly as much as who should get the ball. It’s a good problem to have when you look at their returning stars and a couple of their new ones as well. Their two 1,000-yard receivers in Chris Godwin and Mike Evans are joined by their two returning tight ends in O.J. Howard and Cameron Brate, who combined for 1,100 yards and seven scores last year. Added to the mix will be running back LeSean McCoy and the recently unretired Rob Gronkowski, two players not far removed from being amongst the best at their respective positions.
This is all to say that betting on Brady to lead the league in passing comes down to one thing: Do you think the 43-year old can keep Father Time at bay one more season and that last year’s poor statistical showing for the 6-time Super Bowl champion was the result of poor talent around him? If you answered yes, you could do a lot worse than the likely 10-1 odds that Brady will be the league’s passing leader this season.
Who will throw the most TDs in 2020?
We can easily assume those four QBs, barring injury, will at least be in the top 10 when it comes to yards this season, especially in their pass-happy offenses. Scoring in the red zone can be a bit more complicated, however, and as a result, predicting who will be able to punch it in through the air consistently can be as well. Luckily there has been a clear commonality among the league’s passing touchdown leaders since 2016: They’re all mobile quarterbacks.
Mobile QBs are the obvious trend these days with never-before-seen athletes like last year’s winner Lamar Jackson putting up monster numbers in the air as well as on the ground. No longer will you see three straight fade routes to the corner of the end zone from the 5-yard line. Instead, offensive coordinators are calling designed rollouts for their mobile QBs while sending their WRs criss-crossing around to create chaos within the defense as they try to account for speed at every position.
Expect to see the legend-in-the-making, Mahomes, back at the top of this wager on most legal American betting sites. He’ll likely be accompanied by the other three QBs we’ve already gone over in Prescott, Ryan, and Brady, but there are two other names worth mentioning and they’re both former passing touchdown champs: The Ravens’ Jackson and the Seahawks’ Russell Wilson, who won it in 2017.
Jackson is returning all the key members of his offense, including big TE Mark Andrews who caught a career-high 10 TDs last season. A second offseason of workouts for Jackson with his top two wideouts Marquise Brown and Willie Snead IV should only improve upon his impressive numbers last year.
Wilson, meanwhile, is also returning his key offensive weapons at wideout and might even be better primed than Jackson to outdo last season’s performance in 2020. Tyler Lockett’s emergence into a legit WR1 freed up rookie wideout D.K. Metcalf to play as a legit WR2 helping him post 900 yards receiving and catch 7 TDs. With the way coaches and trainers have raved about Metcalf’s work ethic (and let’s be honest, his monster physique is a tell-tale sign in itself), it’s likely Wilson will now have two legit WR1s at his disposal and exceed his 31 TDs from last season.
NFL passing leaders history
|2019||Jameis Winston||Tampa Bay||5,109|
|2017||Tom Brady||New England||4,577|
|2016||Drew Brees||New Orleans||5,208|
|2015||Drew Brees||New Orleans||4,870|
|2012||Drew Brees||New Orleans||5,177|
|2011||Drew Brees||New Orleans||5,476|
|2010||Philip Rivers||San Diego||4,710|