2020 NFL Draft Odds

TE odds, trends and analysis

The NFL Draft is coming and for those of us counting down the days, April 23 can’t arrive soon enough. Everything will look different this year without one central venue hosting all the teams, top players, and fans. More importantly, personal workouts and pro days have been interrupted in an unprecedented way leaving analysts and fans to piece out how this will affect players’ stocks and subsequent team interests.

We’re here to review it all and help you find the best value bets around the draft. On this page you’ll find a list of US sportsbook odds for the first tight end drafted, a profile for each of the top college TE prospects, and relevant trends to help us build the best betting strategies.

NFL draft odds: First TE drafted

First TE Drafted

Game
04/23/2020
(Eastern Time)
(EST)
Cole Kmet
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-250
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-200
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-182
Adam Trautman
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+700
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+600
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+500
Brycen Hopkins
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+800
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+800
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+800
Hunter Byrant
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+1200
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+1200
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+1200
Thaddeus Moss
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+1600
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+950
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+1200
Albert Okweugbunam
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+1600
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+1000
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+1200
Harrison Bryant
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+2000
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+1000
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+2000

How to bet on first TE drafted

Sportsbooks offer options for several NFL Draft bets, including the first player drafted at each position. To find this section click the NFL tab and find a tab for “First Pick by Position” then view the odds listed below.

Some clear-cut positions such as QB have a clear favorite, like Joe Burrow (-10000 at DraftKings Sportsbook). That means if you bet $1,000 on Burrow, it would only cash $10 if successful. More competitive positions, such as OL, have two players, Mekhi Becton and Tristian Wirfs, tied with the +175 odds at DraftKings. A successful $100 bet on either player would cash $175.

NFL Draft: 2020 TE profiles

Cole Kmet: At 6’6” 260 lbs. Kmet will present a massive target for his next quarterback. Showing leaps of progress between each of his three seasons at Notre Dame, Kmet finished his junior year with 43 receptions, 515 yards, and six touchdowns despite missing the first two games of the season while recovering from a broken collarbone.

A 4.7 second 40-yard dash time and 37” vertical jump at the combine solidified Kmet’s status among most draft analysts as the best option for teams in search of a starting TE. While Kmet provides the best overall combination of receiver/run blocker at the position, he’ll need to improve his blocking in order to earn starter minutes. We’ll probably see a lot of Kmet lined up in the slot at least early on in his career.

Adam Trautman: We’ve all seen high school football highlight reels featuring guys like Michael Vick and Marshawn Lynch dwarfing their competition, making us wonder if they’re competing against middle school kids. That’s pretty much what it’s like to watch highlights featuring Adam Trautman against FCS competition. The 6’5 255-pound junior put up 70 receptions, 916 yards, and 14 touchdowns last season in just 11 games for the Dayton Flyers, a member of the Pioneer League and a school that doesn’t offer football scholarships. An incredible athlete with above-average hands and route-running skills, Trautman put himself on the radar of NFL teams with an impressive Senior Bowl and an even more impressive combine.

Still, Trautman’s lack of big-time college competition and inexperience as a blocker make him more of a long term project than an immediate starter. If coaches decide they don’t want to take on that project, we could see Trautman lined up in the slot for most of his pro career.

Brycen Hopkins: Despite playing four full years at Purdue, Hopkins didn’t make a name for himself his senior season, breaking out for 61 receptions, 830 yards, and seven touchdowns. His athleticism was on full display at the combine where he recorded a 4.66 second 40-yard dash alongside 4.28 seconds in the 20-yard shuttle drill, measurables that helped propel Hopkins to the Big Ten Conference Tight End of the Year.

Hopkins enters the draft as the rare blocking tight end who actually needs to improve his pass catching. He may have been able to rely on his athleticism and size in college, but as the Draft Network’s Joe Marino put it, Hopkins is “[More] of a zone-busting tight end that didn’t find the same degree of success creating separation when working against man coverage.” As most mock drafts don’t have the senior TE getting selected in the first three rounds, he could plausibly be the second TE off the board but certainly not the first.

Thaddeus Moss: Moss may not have anything close to his father Randy’s speed or athleticism, but his wide frame and nasty demeanor on the field translate just fine at tight end. A vicious run-blocker with sticky hands, Moss didn’t record a drop on any of the 57 targets Joe Burrow tossed his way last season, finishing with 47 receptions and 570 yards. He also recorded two of his four TDs on the season against Oklahoma and Clemson in the College Football Playoff.

Moss likely made the right decision to enter the draft after his junior season considering how high his stock grew during LSU’s national title run. He was the beneficiary of great play calling from OC Joe Brady who took advantage of a strong connection between Burrow and his tight end, calling Moss’s number in crucial situations. A famous last name and the bias of recent success could push him up to a second-round pick, but right now Moss’s ceiling appears to be too low to get him off the board before Round 3.

NFL Draft TE history

Here is a list of the first tight ends taken in each NFL Draft going back to 2010.

YearTeamPlayerCollegePick (No. overall)
2019DetroitTJ HockensonIowaNo. 8
2018BaltimoreHayden HurstSouth CarolinaNo. 25
2017Tampa BayOJ HowardAlabamaNo. 19
2016San DiegoHunter HenryArkansasNo. 35
2015CarolinaDevin FunchessMichiganNo. 41
2014DetroitEric EbronNorth CarolinaNo. 10
2013CincinnatiTyler EifertNotre DameNo. 21
2012IndianapolisCoby FleenerStanfordNo. 34
2011MinnesotaKyle RudolphNotre DameNo. 43
2010CincinnatiJermaine GreshamOklahomaNo. 22

NFL Draft strategy and trends

The past ten years of the NFL Draft has shown us that if it rains, it pours when it comes to tight end prospects. This year’s draft, however, can be classified more as a light drizzle. Cole Kmet is the only player who looks like he could earn a TE1 role during his rookie season and even Kmet hasn’t instilled enough confidence to warrant anything higher than a very late first-round projection. We can safely trim this down to a two man race between him and Adam Trautman, Kmet presenting the better player right now and Trautman the pick with higher potential long term value.

The more time that passes without a tight end getting drafted, the more likely it is that we’ll see Trautman selected before Kmet. Coaches and GMs can justify using a late first or early second-round pick on a guy like Kmet who’s proven himself against Big Ten competition, but Trautman is a project with too much work left on him to warrant a pick that high. Still, his potential rapid growth when he moves from FCS-level coaching to the quality of the pros could sway a team to take Trautman before Kmet once we get to the late stages of the second round.

At close to even odds on most US Sportsbooks, Kmet is getting great value worth taking for a guy who has almost unanimously been described as the best TE in this year’s draft class. If you can get at or around +500 on Trautman, it’s not a bad idea to put a smaller flier bet on him as well.

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