Safety has been a position with depreciating draft value in the last few seasons. However, this season sees a stud prospect– Notre Dame’s Kyle Hamilton– out to change the narrative. Hamilton is the top overall prospect on many boards with his draft range expected in the first half of the first round. Below, we’ll look at NFL Draft odds for the rest of the 2022 safety class. How many can we expected to be drafted in Round 1?
NFL Draft odds: First safety drafted
There is no market for the first safety drafted since Hamilton is considered a lock for the pick. Instead, DraftKings Sportsbook offers odds on the next safety taken, with Michigan’s Daxton Hill being the odds-on favorite. To bet on the prop, click the odds in the table below.
How to bet on safeties drafted
One of the most common NFL Draft prop wagers are those that involve betting on which player will be the first drafted at each position. To find these wagers in an online sportsbook, click the NFL tab to navigate toward the 2021 Draft section. Once there, click on “First Pick by Position” to view the odds.
NFL Draft: 2022 safety profiles
Kyle Hamilton, Notre Dame
In many scout’s evaluations, Kyle Hamilton is the top overall prospect available. It’s a textbook example of predictive thinking versus personal evaluation in the NFL Draft. While Hamilton is graded as the best player, he’s unlikely to be drafted first overall (or even in the top 10, at that). He’s got incredible size (6′ 4″) and sideline-to-sideline speed that will make him a menace in the NFL. Hamilton battled injury for the back half of Notre Dame’s season, but he flashed all that’s needed. As far as safeties go, Hamilton will be one of the highest-drafted players at the position in recent memory.
Daxton Hill, Michigan
Also a player that’s graded higher than he’ll go, Dax Hill was a staple in Michigan’s stout defense last season. DraftKings Sportsbook likes Hill being drafted in the first round (-190), with potential landing spots being Kansas City at 29 or 30 or Cincinnati at 31. He provides defenses with the luxury of being extremely effective as a one-high safety. That allows teams to play more physical press man coverage, a tactic used against some of the tougher receivers in space. The odds say he’ll be a Day 1 pick.
Lewis Cine, Georgia
Cine is at an even +100 to be a first round draft pick at DraftKings. He’s a popular pick to be in the final five picks of the first round, a trend that popped up late in the draft cycle. With teams like the Bengals or Lions in need of safety depth, Cine could hear his name called should Hamilton be drafted as expected and Hill pop up earlier in the round. Odds say Hamilton won’t be the only first-round safety drafted (O 1.5 first round safeties -250), could Cine jump ahead of Hill?
Jaquan Brisker, Penn State
While the race for the first safety drafted is a one-man race, Jaquan Brisker offers plenty to still be a highly-drafted player. Odds suggest he’s a Day 2 player (+250 to be in the top 32 at DraftKings).
Jalen Pitre, Baylor
Pitre was a 2021 All American at Baylor and racked up 195 career tackles. He’s a capable coverage safety that also excels in the box. His draft evaluations don’t put him in the same category as the top four guys, but Pitre has the potential to be a good Day 2 value pick for a team.
NFL Draft safety history
Here’s a list of the first safety taken in each NFL Draft going back to 2010.
|Year||Team||Player||College||Pick (No. overall)|
|2020||New York Giants||Xavier McKinney||Alabama||36|
|2019||LA Rams||Taylor Rapp||Washington||61|
|2017||NY Jets||Jamal Adams||LSU||6|
|2016||Oakland||Karl Joseph||Ohio State||14|
|2015||NY Giants||Landon Collins||Alabama||33|
|2014||NY Jets||Calvin Pryor||Louisville||18|
|2013||New Orleans||Kenny Vaccaro||Texas||15|
|2012||New England||Tavon Wilson||Illinois||48|
|2010||Kansas City||Eric Berry||Tennesseee||5|
NFL draft odds strategy and trends
No safeties have been drafted in the first round of the last two drafts. This year, Kyle Hamilton is nearly certain to change that trend. However, will another safety hear their name called on Thursday night? Dax Hill and Lewis Cine are two possibilities, with their odds to go in the first round standing at -190 and +100, respectively. DraftKings Sportsbook prices their prop for first round safeties as such:
Related markets suggest we’ll see Hill drafted somewhere in the back of the first round.