For the first time in nine seasons, the Patriots failed to reach the AFC Championship last year. The incredible 20-year partnership between Bill Belichick and Tom Brady ended with a whimper when Brady walked off the field after a pick-six in a 20-13 loss to the Titans in the Wild Card round. Brady has moved on to the Tampa Bay Bucs and the Patriots have lost multiple key defenders, but counting this organization always seems to find a way to persevere. What will Belichick and his staff conjure for the 2020-21 season? And will they truly roll with Jarrett Stidham under center?
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New England Patriots 2020 schedule and betting odds
|1||Sunday, Sept. 13||1:00 ET||vs. Miami||Patriots -6.5|
|2||Sunday, Sept. 20||8:20 ET||at Seattle||Seahawks -3.5|
|3||Sunday, Sept. 27||1:00 ET||vs. Las Vegas||Patriots -5|
|4||Sunday, Oct. 4||4:25 ET||at Kansas City||Chiefs -8|
|5||Sunday, Oct. 11||1:00 ET||vs. Denver||Patriots -5|
|7||Sunday, Oct. 25||4:25 ET||vs. San Francisco||49ers -2|
|8||Sunday, Nov. 1||1:00 ET||at Buffalo||Bills -1.5|
|9||Monday, Nov. 9||8:15 ET||at NY Jets||Patriots -4|
|10||Sunday, Nov. 15||8:20 ET||vs. Baltimore||Ravens -3.5|
|11||Sunday, Nov. 22||1:00 ET||at Houston||Patriots -1.5|
|12||Sunday, Nov. 29||1:00 ET||vs. Arizona||Patriots -7|
|13||Sunday, Dec. 6||4:25 ET||at LA Chargers||Patriots -2.5|
|14||Thursday, Dec. 10||8:20 ET||at LA Rams||Rams -1|
|15||Sunday, Dec. 20||1:00 ET||at Miami||Patriots -5.5|
|16||Monday, Dec. 28||8:15 ET||vs. Buffalo||Patriots -2|
|17||Sunday, Jan. 3||1:00 ET||vs. NY Jets||TBD|
Patriots futures odds
New England Patriots
New England Patriots
Super Bowl odds
The Patriots opened the offseason with +1400 odds (DraftKings Sportsbook) to win the Super Bowl. That number is already down substantially from their usual mark between +400 and +800 during the Brady-Belichick era. When Brady announced his decision to leave in free agency, their odds quickly shifted to around +1800 and they’re now sitting at +2000 at DK Sportsbook.
If the Patriots shock the world and win another Super Bowl this season, a futures ticket on them for $10 would pay out $200 at +2000 odds. These odds shift frequently throughout the NFL season depending on team performance and injuries.
AFC Championship odds
The Patriots are still one of the favorites to win the AFC with +900 odds at DK. They trail well behind the talented Chiefs (+275) and Ravens (+325) but are still being highly regarded despite a clear lack of talent on their roster. The Patriot Reign is likely over for a few years and a bet on the Pats to win the conference would be ill-advised unless you can find a good price.
AFC East odds
Of course, Super Bowl winner isn’t the only way to target the Futures market. The Patriots are still favored to win the AFC East with +100 odds compared to the Buffalo Bills +160 odds at DK Sportsbook after the NFL Draft. If they go on to secure a 12th consecutive AFC East title, a $20 bet on the Patriots would pay out $20 (on top of the original investment).
New England Patriots win total
You have to go back to 2002 to find the last Patriots team that failed to win 10 regular season games. Their team win total is set at 9.5 (-103 odds at DK) this year and it is that low for good reason. Not only did New England lose key personnel, the team has a brutal schedule that includes home games against title contenders (SF and BAL) and tough road games at the Rams, Seahawks, Texans, and Chiefs. Combine that with the rapid improvement of the Bills and Dolphins in their division, and it’s easy to picture the Pats winning nine games or fewer.
Patriots player props
There aren’t many prop bets up for Patriots players yet because there are many unknowns, including who will start at QB. It’s possible New England drafts a QB and tries to fast track their new signal caller while giving Hoyer some early work. There is so much uncertainty about a franchise and coaching staff that does things uniquely behind closed doors, so you should probably wait until the season gets closer before considering any props.
How to bet on the New England Patriots
For years, the Patriots have been one of the most popular options in the NFL futures market. These bets refer to season-long options such as a team’s win total, or betting that they will win the conference or the Super Bowl. That might not be the case anymore, which we’ll discuss in their Super Bowl odds below.
There should still be plenty of value when betting the Patriots in individual games. The most simple way to bet the Pats would be to take the moneyline, which means picking a winning team without a point spread. Bettors get varying odds on the moneyline based on how lopsided the matchup may be, and for example, the Pats were a whopping -1117 in their regular season finale against the Dolphins last season. Of course, Miami won that game, meaning a bet on the Dolphins would’ve paid off handsomely, whereas a $100 bet on the Pats would’ve only paid a profit of $11 if successful.
While they were favored in every single game last year, the Patriots will likely get some points on the spread in a few matchups this season. The point spread is a way to handicap matchups by forcing action on either side of a line, usually around key numbers such as 3.5 or 7.5. If the Patriots are +3.5 at home against Baltimore this season, there could be some value in taking them to play a close game.
The point total refers to the over/under line set by books. The Patriots routinely went under their point total last season because their defense was so strong and their offense struggled. That trend could reverse this season if they struggle on both sides of the ball. Keep an eye on their totals and look for value.
We’ll have to see what the prop bets action looks like on Julian Edelman or other receivers if Jarrett Stidham starts the year at QB for the Pats. Stidham’s only competition right now is newly signed veteran Brian Hoyer, and there may be some proposition on how Stidham performs with limited weaponry around him. If there is a prop on Stidham throwing 19.5 touchdowns this year, he would have to throw at least 20 for the over to cash.
Parlays and teasers
You can always string bets together in the form of parlays or teasers. Usually during busy Sundays, bettors can parlay several teams to win or cover against the spread and if all bets are successful, the payouts are multiplied. Teasers function similarly, except they allow bettors to move each point spread to a more favorable line in exchange for diminished odds.
Patriots 2019 recap
Last season, the Patriots went 12-4 before losing in the playoffs. They were an even 8-8-1 against the spread (ATS) and were favored in each of those games. After starting 9-1 overall and 7-3 ATS, they dropped 4 of their last 6 and went 1-6 ATS over their last 7 games. Patriots games topped the assigned point total 7 times in 17 contests, with their defense finishing atop the league in most meaningful categories.
New England topped its assigned win total (11.5) but most offensive players came up well short of their propositions. Tom Brady tossed 24 touchdowns, well short of his 29.5-touchdown prop and he came up around 100 yards short of his prop for 4,150.5 passing yards. Julian Edelman finished right at his prop with six receiving TDs. Stephon Gillmore cashed in on his rising odds to be named Defensive Player of the Year.
Patriots 2020 offseason moves
Key trades: S Duran Harmon (to DET)
Key re-signings: CB Devin McCourty (two years, $23M); WR/ST Matthew Slater (two years, $5.3m)
Key free-agent losses: QB Tom Brady (to TB); LB Kyle Van Noy (to MIA); LB Jamie Collins (to DET); DT Danny Shelton (to DET); LB Elandon Roberts (to MIA)
Key free-agent signings: Damiere Byrd, WR (from ARI); Beau Allen, DT (from TB); Brandon Copeland, DE (from NYJ), Adrian Phillips, S (from LAC)
Key draft picks: S Kyle Dugger (2nd round), DE Josh Uche (2nd round), LB Anfernee Jennings (3rd round), TE Dalton Keene (3rd round)
Losing Brady to free agency is clearly the headliner, but the Patriots could suffer more from losing their three best linebackers behind captain Dont’a Hightower. Shelton also played a huge role as a run-stopping tackle on a defense that allowed the second-fewest rushing TDs (0.5) per game last season. Retaining McCourty and signing Phillips to replace Harmon should help the Patriots remain elite in pass defense, but they’re bound to struggle in the intermediate areas.
Belichick and the front office did bolster their diminished defense by drafting a top pass rusher in Uche and a solid OLB in Jennings. The Pats provided a head-scratcher by taking a DII safety in Dugger in the second round, but likely have eyes on him for a special teams role immediately. Perhaps New England isn’t done making moves in free agency, or perhaps this organization has become arrogant that it can coach up unknown talent and remain elite.