Miami Heat Odds


The Miami Heat took the longer road through the play-in tournament, but the franchise went on to defeat the Milwaukee Bucks, New York Knicks and Boston Celtics to become NBA Eastern Conference champions. Heat odds are available to bet on below. After getting eliminated by the Boston Celtics in seven games last year, Miami opened with +2300 odds to win the championship.

This time around, the Heat won the Eastern Conference finals over the Celtics in seven games. Heat versus Nuggets game lines, series prices and props are available to bet on below.

Jimmy Butler continues to show he’s capable of raising his game come playoff time, and the 2023 season is no exception. Bam Adebayo and Kyle Lowry are a couple others playing key roles down in South Beach. With Head coach Erik Spoelstra still running the show, the Heat are capable of rising to the moment and a threat to knock out any opposition in a seven-game series.

Miami Heat Odds

View the updated Miami Heat odds below. Click to bet now.

Miami is only the second No. 8 seed in NBA Playoff history to make the NBA Finals. The other is the 1999 New York Knicks. The Heat lost Game 3 Wednesday night in Miami, 109-94, and now trail the NBA Finals 2-1. Game 4 is taking place at the Kaseya Center on Friday, June 9. Tip is 8:30 p.m. ET. 

Butler, who was named the Eastern Conference finals MVP, leads the Heat offense with 27.3 PPG during postseason, including 20.7 PPG in the series versus Denver. He scored 28 points in Game 3 while Bam Adebayo finished with 22 points and 17 rebounds. The Denver Nuggets are led by Nikola Jokic and his 30.5 PPG, 10.1 APG and 13.4 RPG.

Miami opened as +3.5 Game 4 underdogs with a total of 210.5.

Heat Versus Nuggets Series Odds

Miami is now 1-4 versus Denver this season. The Miami Heat versus Denver Nuggets NBA Finals series odds are now Heat at  +550 and Nuggets at -800.

Heat NBA Title Odds

Heading into the postseason, the market viewed Miami as an extreme longshot to win with NBA title odds at +3500. While in most cases a roughly .500 team in the NBA usually has almost no chance of winning, the Heat have at least had the playoff success that makes one wonder, including making the Eastern Conference Finals and pushing Boston to a Game 7.

Still, that run came on the back of a surprising regular season run to the No. 1 seed. This has been an equally surprising regular season for all the wrong reasons as Miami has struggled to get much above .500 basically all year. As such, they’re looking way up (15 games) at the top teams and look ticketed for the play-in. That means no better than the No. 7 seed and facing one of the top title contenders (Boston, Milwaukee, Philadelphia) in the first round.

If they can’t surpass Brooklyn to avoid the play-in, Miami will just need to win one home game against the likes of Atlanta, Toronto or Chicago. Hardly a given but they’ll be sizable favorites to emerge into the main bracket.

Should Miami somehow triumph in the East, they’d be heavy underdogs in the NBA Finals against teams like Denver and Phoenix, favored to come out of the West.

Heat Roster

Starters/Top Bench Options

  • Tyler Herro: Combo guard with size (6-foot-6), a beautiful shooting stroke, and playmaking skills, but defense has been a major weak point for years.
  • Bam Adebayo: Do-it-all big man lacks 3-point range and could stand to improve mid-range-heavy shot diet. But, screening, passing and especially defense are as good as it gets.
  • Jimmy Butler: Old-school mid-range-centric wing maintains phenomenal efficiency thanks to 100th-percentile free-throw rate (per Cleaning The Glass) and consistent rim pressure.
  • Kyle Lowry: Short but strong PG whose 3-point shooting has begun to fade (34.6% in 2022-23). Now more of a caretaker (career-low 18.7% usage) who is nearing the end at age 36.
  • Caleb Martin: The better shooter of the Martin twins (36.3 3p%). Capable spot starter who fills up the box score off the bench.
  • Max Strus: Latest undrafted Heat gem loves to let it fly from deep but his efficiency has taken a hit (34.3 3p% in ’22-23) and he doesn’t contribute much else.
  • Victor Oladipo: Once an ascending star whose career derailed due to injury. Offensive efficiency never recovered and he now sits in the 12th percentile of points per shot.
  • Gabe Vincent: Backup point guard with a 3-heavy shot diet who doesn’t convert nearly enough (33.9% career) nor set up his teammates very often (3.9 assists per 36).
  • Kevin Love: Mid-season trade pickup who can still rebound (11.6 per 36) but shot has completely deserted him this year (33.2 3p%).

Deep Bench/Reserves

  • Haywood Highsmith: Undrafted, under-sized “big” (6-foot-7) out of tiny Wheeling University has made 35% of his 3s on a relatively high volume (4.2 attempts per 36).
  • Duncan Robinson: Stalwart contributor on NBA Finals team has lost more and more minutes as shooting numbers have taken a hit every season since.
  • Orlando Robinson: Undrafted rookie big man who lives near the rim but doesn’t have shooting stats to match (53.5 FG%).
  • Nikola Jovic: 19-year-old Serbian project big drafted late in the first.
  • Cody Zeller: High-energy bench big who is somehow still only 30.
  • Jamal Cain: Yet another undrafted rookie, this time a wing who doesn’t have NBA range.
  • Udonis Haslem: Oldest player in the NBA (42) and longtime locker room leader who hasn’t logged more than 100 minutes since 2016-17.
  • Omer Yurtseven: Turkish import big (undrafted once again) who put up monster per-36 averages of 15.2 points and 15 boards as a rookie but has barely seen the court as a sophomore.

Who Are The Best Players On The Heat?

Jimmy Butler and Bam Adebayo are both two-way stars who have led the current version of the Miami Heat since Adebayo made a leap as a third-year player in the NBA’s bubble season. Both bring identical defensive tenacity, mid-range scoring and willing passing to keep the Heat offense humming despite a distinct lack of threatening outside shooting. With Butler potentially aging out of stardom soon at age 33 — and with an exceptionally heavy minutes load early in his career — Adebayo figures to be the franchise player going forward.

Tyler Herro also factors in here as a sometime starter, sometime bench ace who can fill a variety of roles on offense. However, playoff opponents have consistently picked on Herro’s defense throughout his career. Unless that gets shored up at some point, he’ll remain a tier below the top guys on any highly competitive Heat team.

Heat Props

Player props are an increasingly popular way to bet on sports. However, unlike major markets (game lines, totals), prop markets can change significantly from one sportsbook to another. Luckily for bettors, TheLines has a built-in prop tool that enables you to find the best prices on any players you’re looking to bet.

Just type a player’s name into the search bar, and the player prop lines will populate from all over the market.

Also, keep an eye on TheLines’ YouTube channel, where the Coast 2 Coast crew breaks down NBA player props multiple times per week.

Miami’s Current Season

Unlike the past few seasons, it’s been a bumpy ride for the Heat, with the team under .500 at 16-17 as late as Dec. 23. Miami Heat odds reflect their current place in the NBA standings. Jimmy Butler and Kyle Lowry have missed their usual 20 or so games, and the Heat never really threatened for a top-four seed. An aging roster and a seeming end to the constant supply of both undrafted gems and star imports has left the team treading closer to the middle of the NBA than the top.

Bringing in Kyle Lowry the prior season is looking like a bust of a move as Lowry’s numbers have declined noticeably, while health remains an ongoing concern for much of the roster.

They do at least look certain to win the (awful) Southeast Division as Atlanta simply couldn’t get its act together long enough really threaten the Heat. When Atlanta mounted a final challenge in early March, the Heat beat them in back-to-back games to move to 35-31. But hitting nearly their high point at 40-34 simply led to an immediate three-game skid as Miami remains mired in the play-in race, albeit strong favorites for a home game.

Heat Transactions

Here’s a look at the major moves the Heat have made this season and prior to the season.

  • February: Signed Kevin Love from buyout market.
  • July: Signed Victor Oladipo to a two-year, $18.2M contract (second year a player option).
  • July: Signed Caleb Martin to a three-year, $20.4M contract (third year a player option).

How To Bet On Miami Heat Odds

There are many ways to bet Miami Heat odds during the NBA season.

The most common are the three major markets: spread bets, moneyline bets and over/under bets. Let’s take a look at some examples from an upcoming game against the Mavericks.

  • Heat -1.5: This is the point spread. Since the Heat are favorite (denoted by the minutes sign), they are giving five to the Mavericks. That is, they must win the game by at least two to cash the bets.
  • Heat -115: This is the moneyline. Again, the Heat are favorites (minutes sign), so the bettor gives a price. That is, they risk $115 for every $100 they want to win on the Heat.
  • Over/Under X: This is the betting total. Bettors taking the over must see at least 235 points scored in order to win their bets. Those on the under must see 234 or fewer.

Any of these bets can usually be combined with other bets in parlays. A same game parlay with multiple wagers from one Heat game also gives the option of combining multiple bets in hopes of a bigger payout.

Smaller Markets, Other Heat Betting Options

Getting past the basics, player props are probably the next most popular way to bet the NBA. Since few if any team sports are more individual player-driven than the NBA, player props for the association are a very popular option. Rather than simply betting the Heat to beat the Mavericks or cover the spread, one can bet that Jimmy Butler will score more than, say, 24.5 points. Or, they can bet that he will snag more than 5.5 rebounds. People love to bet props on their favorite players and in nationally televised games.

We’ve already discussed futures bets above. These allow a bettor to make a wager that the Heat can accomplish some feat at a later date: win the Southeast Division, the Eastern Conference, the NBA Finals, surpass a certain number of wins, etc.

NBA bettors can also try teasers. Usually, NBA teasers involve buying four points from the sportsbook — for example, turning Heat -1.5 into Heat +2.5 against the Mavericks — but in exchange, the bettor must parlay that adjusted price with at least one more adjusted price. Generally speaking, it isn’t advised to bet NBA teasers. “Key numbers” don’t exist they way they do for NFL games. Therefore, buying points is usually a losing proposition.

Finally, there’s live betting. Live betting has gained more and more steam in recent years, particularly in the NBA. Live betting the NBA is a great way to take advantage of things like lineup changes and random scoring runs. Teams very frequently make up large deficits in the modern, 3-point-centric NBA. That makes live betting teams that fall behind early an attractive option.

Pay attention to plus-minus data as well to help find an edge. For example, of the high-minutes Heat players, Bam Adebayo (+8.7) and Tyler Herro (+7.9) have the best net ratings on the team. If the Heat send them to the bench for regular rest, that may be a great time to bet the Mavericks live.

Miami Heat Franchise History

The Miami Heat do not have a long history but they have managed to jam a lot of winning into a short amount of time.

The Heat began as an expansion franchise in 1988-89. They won a combined 33 games the first two seasons before settling into mediocrity for a few years.

Cruise line billionaire Mickey Arison changed that in 1995 when he purchased the team and brought in the one man who has shaped the course of the franchise every step of the way since: Pat Riley. The legendary former Lakers player and coach — and sometime Knick — immediately boosted the team. Miami made the playoffs in his first season coaching them, then won 61 games and made the Eastern Conference Finals the next season.

More playoff appearances followed, but after a rough 25-win season, Riley stepped away from coaching to focus on front office duties. That 2002-03 season would prove a turning point for another reason as well as the Heat nabbed eventual franchise legend Dwyane Wade with the No. 5 pick. Immediately, the Heat made the playoffs. The next season, they added Shaquille O’Neal via trade to form a dynamite one-two punch with Wade. A 59-win season came up a bit short when Wade sustained a playoff injury.

However, things clicked in the playoffs the next season in 2005-06. Riley returned to the bench halfway through the season and coached the team to the finals. There, down 2-0, Wade completely took over the series and the Heat prevailed 4-2 over Dallas.

The Heat failed to do any playoff damage the next four seasons, which also included a 15-win outlier disaster. In true Heat — and Riley fashion — they went back on the prowl for star additions, with Wade now flying solo after a trade of O’Neal. Miami managed to land LeBron James and Chris Bosh in an historic offseason.

The new superstar trio immediately trucked through the East only to fall in a shocking upset to Dallas in the finals, frittering away a 2-1 lead in the series. They made amends the following two seasons, though. First, they beat an upstart Oklahoma City Thunder team in the 2012 NBA Finals, 4-1. Then, they authored a 66-win campaign the following season, which included a near-record 27-game winning streak. That season also ended in glory, although it took a legendary comeback in Game 6 against the San Antonio Spurs to force a Game 7, which Miami won. After one more finals appearance the next season, but a 4-1 loss to those same Spurs, James departed back to Cleveland in free agency.

Wade would also leave in free agency, and Bosh would experience a premature end to his career due to blood clots. Just like that, the championship era swiftly ended and the Heat won one playoff series over the next five seasons.

However, another star guard arrived in free agency to pull the franchise out of mediocrity. Jimmy Butler immediately led the team through the Eastern Conference playoffs in the bubble despite a No. 5 seed. They trounced the top-seeded Milwaukee Bucks and wound up facing old franchise pillar James in the finals, now with the Lakers. Despite an incredible performance from Butler, the overmatched Heat fell in six.

After a down season, Butler led the team back to the Eastern Conference Finals in 2021-22, where they came within one game of toppling the Celtics, losing at home in the finale.

FAQs About Miami Heat Odds

Who is favored to win the 2023 NBA title?

Currently, the Milwaukee Bucks () are narrowly favored over the Boston Celtics (). This looks like one of the more wide open NBA finals races in recent seasons, continuing a theme from 2021-22.

What are the odds that the Heat will win the NBA championship this year?

Philadelphia’s market price for winning the NBA championship is . As of late March, that equates to a 0.99% chance, without considering the vig, or sportsbook juice.

How likely are the Heat to make the playoffs?

With a market price of , the Heat are very likely to make the playoffs. That comes out to 87% probability, although there remains a high chance they’ll have to do via the play-in.

Are the Heat out of the playoffs?

Right now, yes. The Heat are a bit back of Brooklyn for the No. 6 seed, which leaves them in need of a winning performance in the play-in if they hope to participate in playoff hoops.

Has a Heat player ever won MVP?

Yes. LeBron James won the franchise’s first NBA MVP award in 2011-12 and repeated the next season.

Where do the Miami Heat play?

Miami plays at Kaseya Center, located north of downtown and not far from the famous Miami Beach. It seats about 19,600 fans.

Who owns the Miami Heat?

Mickey Arison has owned the team since 1995.

Who coaches the Miami Heat?

Erik Spoelstra. He took over the team in April 2008 and is the second-longest tenured coach after Gregg Popovich.