Once slated to possibly finish the 2019 season winless, the Dolphins overachieved under new HC Brian Flores and ended their year with a bang by upsetting the Patriots in Foxboro and contributing to the fall of their dynasty. Now Flores, the former Patriots DC, is looking to build a defensive powerhouse in Miami with some big free agent acquisitions and key selections in the NFL Draft. The Dolphins drafted a big name QB in Tua Tagovailoa to potentially replace Ryan Fitzpatrick after one more year for the veteran.
Miami Dolphins 2020 schedule and betting odds
|1||Sunday, Sept. 13||1:00 ET||at New England||Patriots -6.5|
|2||Sunday, Sept. 20||1:00 ET||vs. Buffalo||Bills -3|
|3||Thursday, Sept. 24||8:20 ET||at Jacksonville||Jaguars -1.5|
|4||Sunday, Oct. 4||1:00 ET||vs. Seattle||Seahawks -6|
|5||Sunday, Oct. 11||4:05 ET||at San Francisco||49ers -13|
|6||Sunday, Oct. 18||4:05 ET||at Denver||Broncos -6.5|
|7||Sunday, Oct. 25||1:00 ET||vs. LA Chargers||Chargers -1.5|
|8||Sunday, Nov. 1||1:00 ET||vs. LA Rams||Rams -5|
|9||Sunday, Nov. 8||4:25 ET||at Arizona||Cardinals -4.5|
|10||Sunday, Nov. 15||4:05 ET||vs. NY Jets||Jets -.5|
|12||Sunday, Nov. 29||1:00 ET||at NY Jets||Jets -3.5|
|13||Sunday, Dec. 6||1:00 ET||vs. Cincinnati||Dolphins -3.5|
|14||Sunday, Dec. 13||1:00 ET||vs. Kansas City||Chiefs -12|
|15||Sunday, Dec. 20||1:00 ET||vs. New England||Patriots -5.5|
|16||Sunday, Dec. 20||TBD||at Las Vegas||Raiders -6|
|17||Sunday, Jan. 3||1:00 ET||at Buffalo||N/A|
Miami Dolphins futures odds
Super Bowl odds
The Dolphins are obviously huge longshots to win the Super Bowl and opened with +10000 odds at DraftKings Sportsbook. Those odds fell to +8000 after the NFL Draft, which means that a $10 bet on Miami to win the Super Bowl would cash $800 if that unlikely outcome occurs.
AFC Championship odds
After the NFL Draft, the Dolphins had +3000 odds to win the AFC. They’re tied with the Jets, and only the Bengals and Jaguars have worse odds to win the division than those two AFC East teams.
AFC East odds
The Dolphins are the biggest underdog to win the AFC East this season at +900 odds at DraftKings Sportsbook. Miami should have greater odds than a Jets (+750) team that did little to improve this offseason, but there’s not necessarily a market to bet on the Dolphins finishing ahead of the Jets in the standings.
Miami Dolphins win total
The Dolphins are expected to win around 6 games this season with -110 odds on that win total at DK Sportsbook. Those odds mean that a $20 bet on the Dolphins to win fewer than 6 games would profit $18.20 if successful.
Dolphins player props
There aren’t many propositions available for Dolphins players yet. However, we could see a market for rookie QB Tua Tagovailoa based on when he sees his first action of the season.
How to bet on the Miami Dolphins
While they’re certainly improved, the Dolphins aren’t a strong bet to win their division or make the playoffs necessarily. However, if you wanted to take a longshot they’re getting +490 odds to make the playoffs at DraftKings Sportsbook, meaning a $10 bet would profit $49 if Miami makes the postseason.
Value should be found in betting on Miami in individual games. The Dolphins were awful early in the season last year, but are historically tough to beat at home in the sweltering humidity of September and October. You can bet on the Dolphins winning home games on the moneyline, which means you won’t have to cover a point spread. The Dolphins were underdogs in all 16 games last year, and were +781 on the moneyline in their finale at the Patriots. Since they won that game, a $20 bet on the Dolphins would have paid off a whopping $156.
The Dolphins were underdogs in all 16 games last year and are only favored twice this season according to early odds at FOX Bet. They’re favored by 1 at home against the Jets and by 2.5 at home against the Bengals. In the rest of their contests, the Dolphins could pay off by covering a point spread, which is set around a key number such as 3.5 or 7.5 points to inspire action. If Miami is an 8-point underdog and only loses by 7, your bet on Miami (+8) would pay out.
As mentioned above, the Dolphins offense improved dramatically down the stretch to facilitate a few wins and help their games top the assigned point total frequently. We might not see that trend continue, however, since their defense should be very solid and they might slow the pace offensively under new OC Chan Gailey. The total refers to the expected combined points in a matchup between two teams, usually in the 38-45 range for a Dolphins game. Betting the under on a point total of 44.5 would cash if the Dolphins lost, 24-20, for example.
We’re not seeing many proposition bets on Dolphins players quite yet. Note that the Dolphins expected win total sits around 6 at most sportsbooks, so they really should be favored in more than just two games this upcoming season.
Parlays and teasers
You can pair bets on the Dolphins together or with other games by using the parlay feature at most sportsbooks. A parlay is a way to combine bets on the moneyline, point spread, or total to increase a potential payout dramatically. However, all the bets in a parlay must be successful to cash and if any of them fail, the bettor gets nothing. A teaser is a more conservative version of a parlay in that it allows bettors to adjust the point spread or total to increase the likelihood of all bets coming through. The odds in a teaser are therefore much lower than in a parlay.
Dolphins 2019 recap
Despite getting an average of 14 points on the spread over their first seven games, the Dolphins only covered once in that span with four blowout losses to start the Flores era. Things turned around in November with a win over the Jets and upset of the Colts. Then Miami closed strong with covers in four of its last five and wins over the Eagles, Bengals, and Patriots to finish 5-11.
The Dolphins were 9-7 against the spread (ATS) and 5-3 ATS on the road last year. While four of their first five games went under the point total, six of their last seven went over, indicating the improvement of Fitzpatrick and that offense. Miami narrowly exceeded its expected 4.5-win total last season by beating the Patriots in their finale.
Dolphins 2020 offseason moves
Key re-signings: S Adrian Colbert (one year, $1.8m)
Key free-agent losses: C Evan Brown (to Browns)
Key free-agent signings: CB Byron Jones (from Cowboys); LB Kyle Van Noy (from Patriots); DE Emmanuel Ogbah (from Chiefs); DE Shaq Lawson (from Bills); OG Ereck Flowers (from Redskins); RB Jordan Howard (from Eagles)
Key draft picks: QB Tua Tagovailoa (1st round), OT Austin Jackson (1st round), CB Noah Igbinoghene (1st round), OL Robert Hunt (2nd round)
Ending the 2019 season on a high note seems to have inspired the Dolphins front office to get aggressive this offseason. They’ve already landed a huge haul in free agency by swiping key LBs Kyle Van Noy and Elandon Roberts from the rival Patriots, and getting dominant DE Shaq Lawson from the Bills. Byron Jones could provide stability at CB opposite Xavien Howard and Jordan Howard could take over as a lead back for an offense that worked through 4 starting RBs last year.
The Dolphins are clearly not going to be a laughing stock this year and they could complement a solid ground-and-pound offense with a fierce defense, similar to how the Bills are run. Miami used its 14 draft picks to provide reinforcements on the offensive and defensive line and made a splash with the No. 5 overall pick. Tua Tagovailoa is a tantalizing prospect with a great NFL skill set and he’s reportedly past his hip injury. He’ll likely sit most of his rookie year behind Ryan Fitzpatrick and will try to become the franchise QB eventually.