South Region Bracket Odds, Predictions And History

The South Region is loaded and well-represented among the favorites in the March Madness Odds for this year. Florida, Houston, and Illinois are the top three seeds, respectively, each of which has the talent to come out of this quadrant of the bracket for a spot in the Final Four. But don't count anyone out, as March Madness gets that name for a reason.

This year's South regional final is taking place in Houston, Texas at Toyota Center. 

Check out odds for the other regions here:

• NCAA Tournament West Region Odds
• NCAA Tournament Midwest Region Odds
• NCAA Tournament East Region Odds

South Region history

The South Region is where several upsets during last year's NCAA Tournament took place, with one of the biggest being No. 14 Oakland taking down No. 4 Kentucky, 80-76. No. 11 NC State - the lone double-digit seed to advance to the Sweet 16 - defeated No. 6 Texas Tech, 80-67. No. 10 Colorado upset No. 7 Florida, 102-100, while No. 12 James Madison upset No. 5 Wisconsin, 72-61.

The 2023 South Region bracket was one filled with upsets as the top four seeds were all eliminated prior to the Elite 8. No. 1 overall seed Alabama advanced to the Sweet 16 before falling to No. 5 San Diego State, 71-64. SDSU played in the national championship game, but lost 76-59 to UConn. And it's hard to forget about the No. 15 Princeton Tigers who busted brackets with victories over No. 2 Arizona and No. 7 Missouri. Then there was No. 13 Furman's 68-67 shocker over No. 4 Virginia.

In what turned out to be Jay Wright's final year as Villanova's head coach, the No. 2 Wildcats defeated No. 5 Houston, 50-44, in the 2022 South Region Final. Wright spent 21 seasons as Villanova's head basketball coach. He led the Wildcats to two national championships (2016 and 2018) and four Final Four trips. Nova lost to Kansas 81-65 in the national semifinal.

It was the same year that Arizona, a 1 seed, advanced to the Elite Eight, before being upset by Houston, 72-60. No. 11 Michigan enjoyed a deep tournament run with wins over No. 6 Colorado State, 75-63, and No. 3 Tennessee, 76-68.

In 2021, South No. 1 seed Baylor proved to be one of the all-time great college basketball teams as it blew out most of its competition in the Big Dance on its way to a National Title win. The Bears thumped Hartford by 24 in the first round, then beat Wisconsin by 13, Villanova by 11, Arkansas by 9, Houston by 19 and Gonzaga by 16.

Not only did this region produce a National Champion in 2021, but it was also ripe with first-round upsets. No. 15 Oral Roberts shocked 2-seed Ohio State, 13-seed North Texas stunned No. 4 Purdue, and No. 9 Wisconsin blasted No. 8 North Carolina. Oral Roberts proved not to be a fluke as it also took down No. 7 Florida in the second round before losing to Arkansas in the Sweet 16.

A college basketball National Champion wasn't crowned in 2020 due to the COVID-19 pandemic wiping out the tournament. So technically, the South Region produced back-to-back NCAA champs as Virginia won it all coming out of the South in 2019.

South Region First-Round upsets

The South Region has a rich history when it comes to upsets. In fact, the biggest upset in NCAAB odds tournament history - and arguably sports history - occurred in the South Region four years ago. In 2018, UMBC (University of Maryland, Baltimore County) became the first No. 16 seed to ever upset a No. 1 seed as it destroyed Virginia, 74-54. FDU (No. 16 seed in the East Region) is the only other team to pull off the feat, upsetting No. 1 Purdue in the 2023 tournament.

The 2023 tournament also saw little-known Furman upset No. 4 Virginia by 1 point, and Ivy League school Princeton eliminate No. 2 Arizona

There were some big upsets in the South three years ago as well as No. 13 UC Irvine took down No. 4 Kansas State and No. 12 Oregon toppled No. 5 Wisconsin.

In the early 2010s there were also back-to-back years in which 15 seeds shocked 2 seeds. In 2012, No. 15 Lehigh beat No. 2 Duke and in 2013 No. 15 Florida Gulf Coast dumped No. 2 Georgetown.

At least in the past 24 years of March Madness, the South is the upset king among tournament regions. Here is a glance at the first-round stunners in the South since 2000:

2025: No. 9 Creighton over No. 8 Louisville, No. 10 New Mexico over No. 7 Marquette2024: No. 14 Oakland over No. 4 Kentucky, No. 11 NC State over No. 6 Texas Tech, No. 12 JMU over No. 5 Wisconsin, No. 9 Texas A&M over No. 8 Nebraska, No. 10 Colorado over. No. 7 Florida 2023: No. 13 Furman over No. 4 Virginia, No. 15 Princeton over No. 2 Arizona2022: No. 11 Michigan over No. 6 Colorado State, No. 9 TCU over No. 8 Seton Hall 2021: No. 15 Oral Roberts over No. 2 Ohio State, No. 13 North Texas over No. 4 Purdue, No. 9 Wisconsin over No. 8 North Carolina2019: No. 13 UC Irvine over No. 4 Kansas State, No. 12 Oregon over No. 5 Wisconsin, No. 10 Iowa over No. 7 Cincinnati, No. 9 Oklahoma over No. 8 Ole Miss2018: No. 16 UMBC over No. 1 Virginia, No. 13 Buffalo over No. 4 Arizona, No. 11 Loyola-Chicago over No. 6 Miami, No. 9 Kansas State over No. 8 Creighton2017: No. 12 Middle Tennessee over No. 5 Minnesota, No. 10 Wichita State over No. 7 Dayton2016: No. 13 Hawaii over No. 4 California, No. 11 Wichita State over No. 6 Arizona, No. 9 UConn over No. 8 Colorado2015: No. 14 UAB over No. 3 Iowa State, No. 11 UCLA over Southern Methodist2014: No. 12 Stephen F. Austin over No. 5 VCU, No. 11 Dayton over No. 6 Ohio State, No. 10 Stanford over No. 7 New Mexico, No. 9 Pittsburgh over No. 8 Colorado2013: No. 15 Florida Gulf Coast over No. 2 Georgetown, No. 11 Minnesota over No. 6 UCLA2012: No. 15 Lehigh over No. 2 Duke, No. 12 VCU over No. 5 Wichita State, No. 11 Colorado over No. 6 UNLV, No. 10 Xavier over No. 7 Notre Dame2011*: No. 13 Morehead State over No. 4 Louisville, No. 12 Richmond over No. 5 Vanderbilt, No. 11 VCU over No. 6 Georgetown, No. 11 Gonzaga over No. 6 St. John’s, No. 10 Florida State over No. 7 Texas A&M, No. 9 Illinois over No. 8 UNLV2010: No. 11 Old Dominion over No. 6 Notre Dame, No. 10 Saint Mary’s over No. 7 Richmond2009: No. 12 Western Kentucky over No. 5 Illinois, No. 10 Michigan over No. 7 Clemson2008: None2007: No. 9 Xavier over No. 8 BYU2006: No. 14 Northwestern State over No. 3 Iowa, No. 12 Texas A&M over No. 5 Syracuse, No. 10 North Carolina State over No. 7 California2005: No. 13 Vermont over No. 4 Syracuse, No. 9 Mississippi State over No. 8 Stanford2004: No. 12 Manhattan over No. 5 Florida2003: No. 9 Purdue over No. 8 LSU2002: No. 13 UNC-Wilmington over No. 4 USC, No. 10 Kent State over No. 7 Oklahoma State2001: No. 13 Indiana State over No. 4 Oklahoma, No. 12 Gonzaga over No. 5 Virginia, No. 11 Temple over No. 6 Texas, No. 9 Fresno State over No. 8 California2000**: None

*The 2011 NCAA tournament featured a “Southwest” and “Southeast” Region, along with a traditional East and West bracket. There was no “Midwest” Region this year. Upsets mentioned here involve both the Southwest and Southeast regions.**In 2000 and in many years prior, the South Region went by the moniker, “Southeast.”

NCAA Champions from the South Region

There have been 10 NCAA tournament winners from the South Region since 1990, more than any other March Madness region. This makes sense considering the South often features ACC and SEC powerhouses like Duke, North Carolina and Kentucky.

Teams emerging from the South have been particularly successful of late, as the March Madness National Champion has come from this region in five of the past six tournaments.

• 2021 Baylor
• 2019 Virginia
• 2017 North Carolina
• 2016 Villanova
• 2015 Duke
• 2012 Kentucky
• 2010 Duke
• 2009 North Carolina
• 1998 Kentucky
• 1997 Arizona

Here are NCAA champions by region and seed over the past 32 years:

How the South Region Bracket is selected

The NCAA Div. 1 men's basketball "Selection Committee" meets on Selection Sunday each year to determine the March Madness field, choose each team's seed and which region each team will be playing in. UNC Director of Athletics Bubba Cunningham  is the current chairman of the Div. I men’s basketball committee. Thirty-two teams receive automatic bids by virtue of winning their respective conference tournament. The committee chooses the teams who receive “at-large” bids.

At-large selection and seeding is based on:

• Record
• Strength of schedule
• Scoring margin
• Location of wins, losses
• Net offensive and defensive efficiency
• Quality of wins and losses

When it comes to placing teams in regions, the committee will look to give top teams preferential treatment when it comes to travel. The best teams in the field will typically play close to home, and the teams that barely make it often have to go on the road.

For instance, the top teams in the 2021 South Region were: No. 1 Baylor, No. 2 Ohio State, No. 3 Arkansas, and No. 4 Purdue. Had Ohio State and Purdue had slightly better records, they likely would have wound up in their traditional region of the Midwest.