March Madness: The History Of The 8 vs. 9 Matchup

The NCAA tournament is here and no seeding matchups are harder to predict than the No. 8 vs No. 9 games. Since 1985, when the field expanded to 64 teams, the No. 9 seeds hold a small edge in the all-time record – going 81-75. Below we'll go over the history of March Madness 8 vs 9 seeds with updated NCAA tournament odds for each of the four 8 vs 9 seed games.

This year, some of the toughest 8 and 9 seeds to watch include Gonzaga and Louisville.

8 vs 9

East Region: No. 8 Mississippi State vs. No. 9 Baylor (-1.5) | Friday, March 21 (Raleigh, NC)

The Baylor Bears opened as a -1.5 favorite over the Mississippi State Bulldogs while the game had an initial total of 146.5.This game has an early 12:15 ET tip time on CBS.

South Region: No. 8 Louisville (-1.5) vs. No. 9 Creighton | Thursday, March 20 (Lexington, KY)

This year's first round gets underway with the Louisville Cardinals vs. Creighton Bluejays (12:15 p.m. ET, CBS). Louisville opened as a slight -1.5 favorite while the over/under was 144.5.

Midwest Region: No. 8 Gonzaga (-4.5) vs. No. 9. Georgia | Thursday, March 20 (Wichita, KS)

The Gonzaga Bulldogs vs. Georgia Bulldogs matchup is slated for a 4:35 p.m. tip (TBS). Gonzaga opened as a -4.5 favorite while the initial total was 150.5.

West Region: No. 8. UConn (-4.5) vs. 9. Oklahoma | Thursday, March 20 (Raleigh, NC)

The defending back-to-back national champion Connecticut Huskies are an 8 seed, and opened as a -4.5 favorite over the Oklahoma Sooners. This game (9:25 p.m. ET, TNT) had an initial over/under of 147.5.

Bracket and odds

The 2025 NCAA Tournament bracket is now live. An interactive bracket with odds, including the 8 vs 9 seed games, will be shown below.

8 vs 9 seed history

In 2024, the 9 seeds enjoyed a 3-1 record over 8 seeds. Utah State was the lone No. 8 seed to make it out of the first round. None of the teams made it past the second round. Here were last year's 8-9 seed results:

• 9 seed Northwestern 77, 8 seed Florida Atlantic 65
• 9 seed Michigan State 69, 8 seed Mississippi State 51
• 9 seed Texas A&M 98, 8 seed Nebraska 83
• 8 seed Utah State 88, 9 seed TCU 72

Here are what the point spreads looked like ahead of last year's 8 vs 9 seed games.

• Northwestern (+1.5) vs. Florida Atlantic (-1.5)
• Michigan State (-1.5) vs. Mississippi State (+1.5)
• Texas A&M (+3) vs. Nebraska (-3)
• Utah State (+3.5) vs. TCU (-3.5)

Two years ago, it was an even split when it comes to the 8 vs. 9 seed as the matchup went 2-2. The most notable 8 versus 9 game last year involved FAU versus Memphis as FAU won by just a point, 66-65. Florida Atlantic then wound up going all the way to the Final Four. Here were the 2023 8-9 seed results:

• 8 seed Maryland 67, 9 seed West Virginia 65
• 9 seed Florida Atlantic 66, 8 seed Memphis 65
• 9 seed Auburn 83, 8 seed Iowa 75
• 8 seed Arkansas 73, 9 seed Illinois 63

Here are what the point spreads looked like ahead of the 2023 8 vs 9 seed games.

• West Virginia (-2.5) vs. Maryland (+2.5)
• Memphis (-1.5) vs. Florida Atlantic (+1.5)
• Auburn (-1.5) vs. Iowa (+1.5)
• Arkansas (-2.5) vs. Illinois (+2.5)

Arkansas and FAU were the only 8-9 seeds that made it to the Sweet 16 a year ago. Arkansas fell to eventual NCAA champion UConn while FAU made it all the way to the Final Four before being ousted by San Diego State.

Betting an 8 or 9 seed to advance to the Sweet 16, let alone the Elite 8 or Final Four is a big risk considering the winner of the 8-9 game plays the 1 seed in each region in the second round of the tournament 99 percent of the time.

When adding in the 2024 results, No. 9 seeds actually hold a 81-75 advantage against No. 8 seeds in the first round since 1985.

One of the biggest blowouts in 8/9 games came 10 years ago. One year after being knocked out by a No. 9 seed, Pitt stormed back that year as a No. 9 seed itself to hand No. 8 Colorado the biggest upset between 9s and 8s, blowing out the Buffaloes, 77-48. In the NCAA tournament four years ago, Oklahoma scored 95 points and rolled to a 23-point win over Ole Miss, 95-72.

Perhaps the most memorable buzzer beater in recent memory came in an 8-9 game came in 2011, when No. 8 Butler edged No. 9 Old Dominion on Matt Howard’s layup at the buzzer. Butler advanced all the way to the championship game that year, but lost to UConn 53-41 in the final.

• The 2014 Kentucky Wildcats advanced to the championship game as an 8 seed in 2014, but just scraped by to defeat No. 9 Kansas State 56-49 in the first round.
• Kentucky is tied with BYU for the most appearances as an 8 seed and has a 3-1 record compared with the Cougars’ 0-4 record.
• Nine years ago, No. 8 NC State took down top-seeded Villanova 71-68 in the second round, before falling to 4-seed Louisville in the Sweet 16.

The deep run of success of 8 and 9 seeds

In the history of the NCAA Tournament, seven No. 8 seeds have advanced to the Final Four, including a record two in 2000 (North Carolina and Wisconsin). Neither of those teams advanced to the title game. Three No. 8 seeds have reached the national championship game, including Villanova in 1985, Butler in 2011, and Kentucky in 2014.

Villanova is the only No. 8 seed to ever win a national title, upsetting Georgetown 69-64 in 1985. The Wildcats won the first tournament that expanded to 64 teams, and they remain the lowest seed to ever claim the national championship. Villanova barely beat No. 9 Dayton in the first round that year, 51-49.

Only three No. 9 seeds have ever reached the Final Four — Pennsylvania in 1979, Wichita State in 2013 and Florida Atlantic last year - and none have advanced to the championship game. The Shockers beat No. 1 Gonzaga and No. 2 Ohio State in their 2013 run before falling to Louisville, the eventual national champion, in the Final Four.

Who usually gets placed in the 8 vs. 9 game?

The 32 Division I conferences all receive an automatic bid to the NCAA Tournament, which are awarded to the winners of the postseason conference tournaments.

After that, the selection committee picks 36 teams for at-large bids. These are teams that are not automatic qualifiers but that the committee believes possess the skill and pedigree to be worthy of an invitation.

The committee selects teams based on a number of criteria using the NCAA Evaluation Tool (NET). The NET relies on the following in determining the NCAA Tournament teams and seeding:

• Game results
• Strength of schedule
• Scoring margin
• Net offensive and defensive efficiency
• Game location
• Quality of wins and losses

Because most of the higher seeds go to automatic qualifiers of major conferences, and many of the lower seeds go to automatic qualifiers of lower-tier conferences, the middle-of-the-road 8-9 seeds often go to at-large teams from major conferences and quality teams from stronger mid-major conferences.

How to pick 8 vs. 9 in March Madness brackets

The 8 vs. 9 NCAA tournament match-ups are expected to be close contests as the betting lines are often around -4, with many less than a basket. You’ll hear plenty of opinions on these games but pay less attention to the seed and focus on the betting lines and market moves.

Study the strength of schedule for teams and more recent form including their performance against better teams. Note the site location, key injuries and coaching strength, as preparation and coaching ability is not considered enough by the public or the more casual bettor. The historical SU results favoring the No. 9 seeds tells us that the No. 8 seeds are not necessarily the better teams. In fact, in the 2016 tournament, all four No. 8 seeds closed as underdogs of 3.5 points or less.