The March Madness 7 vs 10 matchups often feature fading teams from power conferences against mid-majors that are on the rise. This can be tough on the No. 7 seeds but often makes for good betting value. Below we will examine the history of March Madness 7 vs 10 matchups and provide live NCAA tournament odds for all of this year’s 7 vs. 10 games.
March Madness 7 vs 10
Selection Sunday revealed the March Madness 7 vs 10 matchups. Sportsbooks were quick to post 7 vs 10 odds, which you can see below. The spreads are the best available from the top sportsbooks in the US.
Missouri vs Utah State
Utah State was -2 over Missouri late Sunday night. However, they trailed almost start to finish as Missouri pulled the minor upset, 76-65.
Northwestern vs Boise State
After closing as small -1.5 favorites, Northwestern rebounded from a rough Big Ten tournament to beat Boise State and cover, 75-67.
Texas A&M vs Penn State
Texas A&M was a -3 favorite over Penn State as of Sunday night. The Nittany Lions completely dominated, though, getting the upset win, 76-59.
Michigan State vs USC
Michigan State opened as a -1.5 favorite over USC. They dominated the second half after a tied first half for a 72-62 win.
Bracket and odds
The 2023 NCAA Tournament bracket was posted on Selection Sunday. Below is an interactive bracket with odds for each game, including the 7 vs 10 games.
March Madness 7 vs 10 history
Number 7 seeds hold a 90-58 record against 10 seeds since the NCAA Tournament field expanded in 1985.
The 7 seeds held their own last year, going 3-1 straight up against the 10 seeds and going 2-1-1 against the spread. USC was the only 7 seed to lose, going down 68-66 to No. 10 Miami (FL). Here are the results from the 2022 March Madness 7 vs 10 matchups:
- 10 seed — Miami (FL) 68, 7 seed — USC 66
- 7 seed — Michigan State 74, 10 seed — Davidson 73
- 7 seed — Murray State 92, 10 seed — San Francisco 87
- 7 seed — Ohio State 54, 10 seed — Loyola Chicago 41
Here are what the 7 vs 10 odds looked like last year:
- West: (7) Michigan State -1 vs. (10) Davidson +1
- East: (7) Murray State -1 vs. (10) San Francisco +1
- South: (7) Ohio State +1.5 vs. (10) Loyola Chicago -1.5
- Midwest: (7) USC -1.5 vs. (10) Miami FL +1.5
Each of the 7 seeds that advanced to the second round failed to reach the Sweet 16. But 10-seed Miami (FL) upset 2-seed Auburn in the second round and then beat 11-seed Iowa State in the Sweet 16. Miami lost in the Elite Eight to 1-seed Kansas.
The 7 seed versus 10 seed matchups split in 2021, although one of the victories for a 7 seed (Oregon) has an asterisk next to it. The 7-seeded Ducks advanced past 10-seed VCU after VCU had multiple players that tested positive for COVID-19. Other 7 – 10 seed game results from last year were:
- 10 Rutgers over 7 Clemson (60-56)
- 7 Florida over 10 Virginia Tech (75-70)
- 10 Maryland over 7 UConn (63-54)
Oregon’s unexpected bye into the second round seemingly helped them as they toppled 2-seed Iowa. The Ducks’ season came to an end, however, in the next round as USC took them down.
Upsets in the Nos. 7 and 10 matchups are not rare, but blowouts certainly are. In 2017, No. 7 seed South Carolina blew away No. 10 Marquette 93-73 on its way to the Final Four. In 2015, No. 7 Iowa throttled No. 10 Davidson 83-52. Most recently in 2019, Southern Conference champion Wofford walked over Seton Hall 84-68 as a 3-point favorite.
There has been only one tournament in the past 34 years in which No. 7 seeds were swept by 10 seeds (1999), according to NCAA.com. The current streak almost ended in 2010 but Brigham Young survived as the final No. 7 seed, edging Florida 99-92.
On the other side, there have only been two tournaments in which all four No. 7 seeds advanced: 1993 and 2007.
West Virginia has held the No. 7 seed more than any other program, with a 3-1 record in the opening round since the tournament expanded in 1985 – according to NCAA.com.
Creighton (which has the most appearances as a No. 10 seed with five) is winless as the lower seed, but 1-0 as a No. 7 seed.
The 32 Division I conferences all receive an automatic bid to the NCAA Tournament, which is awarded to the winners of respective postseason conference tournaments.
After that, the selection committee picks 36 teams for at-large bids. These are teams that are not automatic qualifiers but that the committee believes possess the skill and pedigree to be worthy of an invitation, according to NCAA.com.
Because most of the higher seeds go to automatic qualifiers of major conferences, and many of the lower seeds go to automatic qualifiers of lower-tier conferences, the middle-of-the-road No. 7 and 10 seeds often go to at-large teams from major conferences or mid-majors.
Occasionally, No. 10 seeds are winners of a lower-tier conference tournament or a bubble team from a higher-profile conference that ends up receiving a bid.
Ten-seed Maryland was taken out in the second round as the Terps lost to 2-seed Alabama. Rutgers, which also was victorious in Round 1 as a 10 seed, also fell in the second round as Houston took out the Scarlet Knights.
After getting by 10-seed Virginia Tech in the first round, 7-seed Florida was upset by 15-seed Oral Roberts in the second round.
The coronavirus pandemic caused the shutdown of the 2020 NCAA tournament. In 2019, No. 7 seeds went 1-3 with Wofford beating Seton Hall 84-68. Three No. 10 seeds won: Minnesota beat Louisville 86-76, Florida took out Nevada 70-61, and Iowa held off Temple 79-72. All four winners lost in the Round of 32 with Iowa taking No. 2 Tennessee to overtime before falling 83-77.
In 2018, No. 7 seeds went 3-1 SU and ATS against No. 10 seeds with all wins by 5 points or less including two in overtime. Butler, as a No. 10 seed, blew out Arkansas 79-62, but was eliminated in the round of 32.
Seven versus 10 seed matchups often make for thrilling finishes, as evidenced by Nevada’s memorable high-scoring overtime win over Texas in 2018.
Bracket and odds
Below will be a live odds bracket ahead of the NCAA men’s basketball tournament.
7 vs 10 seed upset history
Here is a look at the 19 times since 2010 that a No. 10 seed has pulled off a March Madness shocker over a No. 7 seed.
| Year | Result | Score |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 | Miami FL def. USC | 68-66 |
| 2021 | Maryland def. UConn | 63-54 |
| 2021 | Rutgers def. Clemson | 60-56 |
| 2019 | Florida def. Nevada | 70-61 |
| 2019 | Iowa def. Cincinnati | 79-72 |
| 2019 | Minnesota def. Louisville | 86-76 |
| 2018 | Butler def. Arkansas | 79-62 |
| 2017 | Wichita State def. Dayton | 64-58 |
| 2016 | VCU def. Oregon State | 75-67 |
| 2016 | Syracuse def. Dayton | 70-51 |
| 2015 | Ohio State def. VCU | 75-72 |
| 2014 | Stanford def. New Mexico | 58-53 |
| 2013 | Iowa State def. Notre Dame | 76-58 |
| 2012 | Xavier def. Notre Dame | 67-63 |
| 2012 | Purdue def. St. Mary's | 72-69 |
| 2011 | Florida State def. Texas A&M | 57-50 |
| 2010 | Georgia Tech def. Oklahoma State | 64-59 |
| 2010 | Missouri def. Clemson | 86-78 |
| 2010 | St. Mary's def. Richmond | 80-71 |
The success of 7 and 10 seeds in March Madness
In 2014, UConn became the first and only No. 7 seed to win a National Championship. However, the Huskies needed overtime to get past No. 10 Saint Joseph’s in an 89-81 opening-round victory. UConn was also the first No. 7 seed to reach the Final Four, but Michigan State would follow in 2015 before losing in the national semifinals.
In 2017, No. 7 seed South Carolina advanced all the way the Final Four, falling to No. 1 Gonzaga 77-73 in the National Championship semi-finals. On their way to the Final Four, the Gamecocks notched upsets over No. 2 Duke, No. 3 Baylor and No. 4 Florida.
In 2016, Syracuse became the first No. 10 seed to reach the Final Four since the tournament expanded to 64 teams in 1985 with its 68-62 victory against Virginia, according to NCAA.com. Syracuse fell to eventual runner-up North Carolina, 83-66, in the semifinal game.
Teams seeded at No. 10 have 23 Sweet 16 appearances, and eight of those teams have advanced to the Elite Eight.
The magical run of Stephen Curry’s No. 10 Davidson Wildcats that came in 2008 started with a 6-point win against No. 7 Gonzaga and became one of most memorable Cinderella stories in college basketball history.
Curry scored 40 points in the 82-76 win over the Bulldogs, and the Wildcats rode his hot hand until they lost to No. 1 Kansas in the Elite Eight.
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