The History Of March March Madness Pairings: 6 vs. 11 Seeds

Because of recent history, picking No. 11s for upset wins in the first round might be a popular play for this year’s selection of NCAA Tournament odds. In the past two tournaments, five of the eight 11 seeds have won outright in the first round. And these 11 seeds often don’t stop after one win.

Who can forget 11th-seeded Loyola Chicago’s run to the Final Four in 2018? And in 2021, 11-seed UCLA had a stunning run to the National Semi-finals. Most recently in 2022, Iowa State and Michigan each reached the Sweet 16 as 11 seeds.

6 vs 11 seed

We now know the 6 vs 11 seed matchups for the 2023 NCAA men’s basketball tournament. Check out live 6 vs 11 seed odds below.

6. Kentucky vs. 11. Providence

This SEC versus Big East battle has Kentucky as a -3.5 favorite. The Kentucky versus Providence showdown had an initial total of 145.5 points.

6. Creighton vs. 11. NC State

Creighton opened as a -5 favorite over NC State. The game initially had a total of 147.5 points.

6. Iowa State vs. 11. Pittsburgh

Iowa State opened as a -4 favorite over Pittsburgh. The game had a total points line of 131.5.

6. TCU vs. 11. Arizona State

TCU opened as a -5.5 favorite against Arizona State, winner of Wednesday’s First Four game versus Nevada. Friday’s game opened with a total points line of 141.5.

Odds and bracket

The 2023 NCAA Tournament field was announced Sunday. View our interactive NCAA men’s basketball tournament bracket with live odds and more, including the 6 vs. 11 matchups.

6 vs 11 seed history

In last year’s tournament, 11 seeds were lethal, as three of the four took down the 6-seed in first-round upsets.

Number 11 seeds are 14-10 against 6 seeds over the past six years.

Here are the 6 vs 11 results from last year:

11 seed — Iowa State 59, 6 seed — LSU 54
11 seed — Notre Dame 78, 6 seed — Alabama 64
6 seed — Texas 81, 11 seed — Virginia Tech 73
11 seed — Michigan 75, 6 seed — Colorado State 63

Here were the 6 vs 11 seed odds from last year.

West: (6) Alabama -4.5 vs. (11) Notre Dame +4.5
East: (6) Texas -1 vs. (11) Virginia Tech +1
South: (6) Colorado State +1 vs. (11) Michigan -1
Midwest: (6) LSU -5 vs. (11) Iowa State +5

We got a split in 2021 with two 6 seed first-round winners and two 11 seed first-round victors. UCLA and Syracuse were the two 11 seeds that pulled off early tournament upsets. Here were the scores:

6 USC 72, 11 Drake 56
11 UCLA 73, 6 BYU 62
6 Texas Tech 65, 11 Utah State 53
11 Syracuse 78, 6 San Diego State 62

UCLA made its mark as one of the all-time great 11 seeds, going all the way to the Final 4. The Bruins nearly made the National Title game itself but Gonzaga beat them at the buzzer in the National semis. Syracuse also made it to the tournament’s second weekend but fell to Houston in the Sweet 16.

Six-seed USC also made an impressive run as it beat No. 3 Kansas in the second round and then made it all the way to the Elite 8 before losing to Gonzaga. After beating Utah State in the first round, Texas Tech was eliminated by 3 seed Arkansas in the second round.

The coronavirus pandemic caused the shutdown of the 2020 NCAA tournament. In 2019, No. 6 seeds went 3-1 SU and 2-2 ATS against No. 11 seeds. Buffalo beat Arizona State 91-74 and Villanova got a half-point cover over St. Mary’s in a 61-57 win. Maryland used a 14-0 run out of the halftime break to overtake Belmont and hold off the Bruins, 79-77 despite 35 points from Belmont senior Dylan Windler. No. 10 seed Ohio State upset Iowa State 62-59. All four winners lost in the Round of 32 with Maryland suffering a 2-point defeat while the other three were blown out by at least 15 points.

In 2018, No. 6 and No. 11 seeds split their games for an even 2-2 record, but the underdog 11 seeds went 3-1 ATS. No. 11 Loyola-Chicago defeated Miami 64-62 on Donte Ingram’s dramatic 3-point buzzer-beater that launched the Ramblers on their improbable run to the Final Four.

Over the past seven tournaments, No. 11 has mostly been Lucky 11. Eleven seeds are surprisingly 15-13 against No. 6 seeds in that stretch after going 3-1 in 2022. In both 2022 and 2016, three No. 11 seeds won opening-round games over No. 6 seeds. In 1989, all four No. 11 seeds won.

Number 6 seeds hold a 91-57 record against No. 11 seeds since the NCAA Tournament field expanded in 1985.
Since 2000, No. 6 seeds are 49-39 against No. 11 seeds in the round of 64.
In 2000, Pepperdine blew out Indiana 77-57 in Bobby Knight’s last game as the Hoosiers’ coach. It was the largest 11-over-6 margin ever.

Aside from Loyola-Chicago’s thrilling victory over Miami, perhaps the most memorable 6-vs.-11 game in recent years was the Northern Iowa-Texas matchup in 2017. Paul Jesperson’s half-court-heave at the buzzer lifted the Panthers over the Longhorns, 75-72.

Xavier has been involved in the 6-vs.-11 game nine times — five times as the No. 6 and four times as the No. 11. Xavier won its first game as the No. 11 seed in 2017, and has a 3-2 record as a sixth-seed.

The sixth-seeded teams also have swept the opening round just five times since the tournament moved to the 64-team format (1987, 1992, 1997, 1999 and 2004).

Three No. 6 seeds have made the Final Four since 1985: Providence in 1987, Kansas in 1988 and Michigan in 1992.

No. 6 seeds are 1-1 in the national championship game, with Danny Manning-led Kansas defeating Oklahoma in 1988, and the Fab Five of Michigan falling to Duke in 1992.

Five No. 11 seeds have reached the Final Four:

2021: UCLA
2018: Loyola-Chicago
2011: VCU
2006: George Mason
1986: LSU

None of them advanced to the national title game. Those teams mark the lowest seeds ever to reach the Final Four.

Eight No. 11 seeds have made it to the Elite Eight.

6 vs 11 seed upset history

View 6 seed over 11 seed upsets below.

Year	Result	Score
2022	Notre Dame def. Alabama	78-64
2022	Michigan def. Colorado State	75-63
2022	Iowa State def. LSU	59-54
2021	Syracuse def. San Diego State	78-62
2021	UCLA def. BYU	73-62
2019	Ohio State def. Iowa State	62-59
2018	Loyola Chicago def. Miami FL	64-62
2018	Syracuse def. TCU	57-52
2017	Rhode Island def. Creighton	84-72
2017	USC def. SMU	66-65
2017	Xavier def. Maryland	76-65
2016	Northern Iowa def. Texas	75-72
2016	Gonzaga def. Seton Hall	68-52
2016	Wichita State def. Arizona	65-55
2015	Dayton def. Providence	66-53
2015	UCLA def. SMU	60-59
2014	Tennessee def. UMass	86-67
2014	Dayton def. Ohio State	60-59
2013	Minnesota def. UCLA	83-63
2012	Colorado def. UNLV	68-64
2012	NC State def. San Diego State	79-65
2011	Marquette def. Xavier	66-55
2011	VCU def. Georgetown	74-56
2011	Gonzaga def. St. John's	86-71
2010	Washington def. Marquette	80-78
2010	Old Dominion def. Notre Dame	51-50

Who usually gets placed in the 6 vs. 11 game?

The 32 Division I conferences all receive an automatic bid to the NCAA Tournament, which is awarded to the winners of the postseason conference tournaments.

After that, the selection committee picks 36 teams for at-large bids. These are teams that are not automatic qualifiers but that the committee believes possess the skill and pedigree to be worthy of an invitation, according to NCAA.com.

No. 11 seeds are often winners of a lower-tier conference tournament or a bubble team from a higher-profile conference that ends up receiving a bid.

No. 6 seeds are typically at-large teams from major conferences or mid-majors who won their conference regular season and tournament titles.