There is nothing quite like the thrill of the first round of March Madness. Anticipation has been building all week, and for many teams, it can all come crashing down in one final shot. For the big underdogs, the the potential for an upset is extremely exciting. That is certainly the case when it comes to 2 vs 15 seed games. Despite many upsets throughout the tournament, however, bookmakers set huge spreads on March Madness odds for the 2 vs 15 matchups.
2 vs. 15 seed
Below we will provide a rundown of the 2 vs. 15 seed matchups for the 2025 NCAA men’s basketball tournament and the spreads for each game on Selection Sunday.
South Region: No. 2 Michigan State (-18.5) vs. 15. Bryant | Friday March 21 (Cleveland, OH)
Head coach Tom Izzo is looking to lead the Michigan State Spartans to another title. The Spartans haven’t won the tournament since 2000, and fans would love to see a deep run. Michigan State starts out with a showdown against the Bryant Bulldogs (10 p.m. ET, TBS), with the numbers favoring Michigan State by 18.5 points with a point total of 150.5. When it comes to the moneyline, Michigan State is listed at -2100 while Bryant is +1100 to pull off the upset.
East Region: 2. Alabama (-22.5) vs. 15. Robert Morris | Friday, March 21 (Cleveland, OH)
After making it to the Final Four last season, the Alabama Crimson Tide are looking to win it all. The Crimson Tide face off against the Robert Morris Colonials in the First Round (12:40 p.m. ET, truTV). Robert Morris is hoping for an upset, although the team is listed as 22.5-point underdogs with +1600 moneyline odds. The point total is set at 166.5 for the matchup, and many bettors will be intrigued by the over/under. Alabama was the highest scoring team in college basketball, averaging 91.1 points per game. Meanwhile, Robert Morris put up an average of 76.9 points per game throughout the regular season.
West Region: 2. St. John’s (-18.5) vs. 15. Omaha | Thursday, March 20 (Providence, RI)
The First Round also features a showdown between the St. John’s Red Storm and the Omaha Mavericks (9:45 p.m. ET, CBS). Sportsbooks list the Red Storm as 18.5-point favorites while the over/under is 147.5. The Mavericks were an impressive 23-9 against the spread throughout the season, while St. John’s had an ATS record of 21-11-2. In the futures market, St. Johns is +2800 to win the national championship heading into the tournament while Omaha is currently +100000.
Midwest Region: 2. Tennessee (-18.5) vs. 15. Wofford | Thursday, March 20 (Lexington, KY)
The Tennessee Volunteers boast one of the best defenses in college basketball, allowing just 62.3 points per game. The Wofford Terriers have a tall task in facing off against the Volunteers (6:50 p.m. ET, TNT), with the team now 18.5-point underdogs and +1500 to pull off the upset. However, bettors that can’t decide on the point spread can also check out the over/under, which is now listed at 133.5.
Bracket and odds
The 2025 NCAA Men’s Tournament bracket will be posted below once the field is set on Sunday, March 16. Below will be an interactive bracket with odds for each game, including the 2 vs 15 games.
2 VS 15 SEED HISTORY
The No. 2 seeds swept the No. 15 seeds in last year’s tournament.
- 2 seed – Arizona 85, 15 seed – Long Beach State 65
- 2 seed – Marquette 87, 15 seed – Western Kentucky 69
- 2 seed – Tennessee 83, 15 seed – Saint Peter’s 49
- 2 seed – Iowa State 82, 15 seed – South Dakota State 65
Here are the 2 vs 15 seed odds from last year’s tournament:
- West: Arizona vs. Long Beach State +21.5
- East: Iowa State vs. South Dakota State +15.5
- South: Marquette vs. Western Kentucky +14
- Midwest: Tennessee vs. Saint Peter’s +20
Outside of Long Beach State covering the spread vs. Arizona, no other 15 seed covered the spread in 2024. Three of the four No. 2 seeds were eliminated in the Sweet 16, including Marquette losing to No. 11 NC State. Tennessee’s run ended in the Elite 8 at the hands of No. 1 Purdue, 72-66.
The Princeton Tigers were one of the bigger stories of the 2023 Big Dance.The Ivy League squad opened the tournament with a 59-55 upset over No. 2 Arizona. The Tigers’ Cinderella story continued versus No. 7 Missouri in the second round before getting knocked out by Creighton in the Sweet 16. Texas was the lone No. 2 seed to advance to the Elite Eight but was upset by No. 5 Miami. UCLA reached the Sweet 16 before losing by three points to No. 3 Gonzaga. Marquette was upset in the Round of 32 by 7-seed Michigan State.
Two of the four No. 2 seeds made the 2022 Final Four. Villanova lost to eventual national champion Kansas while Duke was knocked out by rival UNC in what was the final game on the sidelines for Blue Devils head coach Mike Krzyzewski.
Houston was the most successful of the 2 seeds in 2021, going all the way to the Final Four where it lost to eventual National Champion Baylor in the semi-finals. Iowa fell to 7-seed Oregon in the second round, Alabama made it to the Sweet 16 but lost to 11-seed UCLA, and Cinderella Oral Roberts also made it to the Sweet 16 but dropped a close one to 3-seed Arkansas.
The coronavirus pandemic caused the shutdown of the 2020 NCAA tournament. The previous two years saw No. 2 seeds go 8-0 SU and 5-3 ATS. That includes 2-2 ATS in 2019 when Kentucky (-20) blew out Abilene Christian 79-44, and fellow SEC member Tennessee (-17.5) held off Colgate, 77-70. Two Big Ten teams won as 2 seeds with Michigan (-15) covering against Montana 74-55, and Michigan State (-17.5) overcoming a halftime deficit and needing a late 9-0 run to put away Bradley, 76-65.
All four No. 2 seeds won in the Round of 32 with Michigan and Michigan State gaining double-digit covering victories. Kentucky and Tennessee won by single digits with the Wildcats 6-point win a narrow cover over upstart Wofford. Tennessee needed overtime to dispatch Iowa, 83-77, but the Volunteers lost in the Sweet 16 to Purdue, 99-94 in an overtime shootout. Michigan was shut down by Texas Tech 63-44 in the Sweet 16.
Michigan State and Kentucky then won to advance to the Elite Eight, and Michigan State made the Final Four with a 68-67 win over No. 1 Duke. Kentucky fell in overtime in the Elite Eight to fellow SEC team Auburn, 77-71.
- No. 2 seeds are 144-12 versus No. 15 seeds since 1985. Since 2000, those big favorites and No. 2 seeds are 87-9.
- Eleven 15 seeds have upset 2 seeds in the NCAA tournament, which means 15 seeds have an 11-144 record all-time against 2s.
Norfolk State pulled off arguably the second-biggest upset in NCAA tournament history in a 2 vs. 15 match-up in 2012 when they stunned Missouri 86-84 as a 21-point underdog. On that same day, No. 15 Lehigh dumped Duke 75-70 as an 11-point underdog when C.J. McCollum poured in 30 points for the Patriot League champs stunner over Duke.
The following year in 2013, Atlantic Sun conference winner Florida Gulf Coast made history. Florida Gulf Coast beat No. 2 seed Georgetown 78-68 as a 14-point underdog, and then FGC became the first No. 15 seed in NCAA Tournament history to make the Sweet Sixteen after knocking off San Diego State 81-71 as a 7.5 point underdog. Florida Gulf Coast head coach Andy Enfeld parlayed that success into the head coaching position at USC.
In 2016 No. 15 Middle Tennessee State never trailed as a 16-point underdog, and the Blue Raiders recorded the high-scoring upset win over No. 2 Michigan State 90-81.
Ten 2 vs 15 seed upsets in March Madness
2023 was the 11th time in NCAA Tournament history in which a No. 15 seed knocked out a No. 2 seed in the first round. Here are the scores.
| Year | Result | Score |
|---|---|---|
| 2023 | Princeton def. Arizona | 59-55 |
| 2022 | Saint Peter’s def. Kentucky | 85-79 |
| 2021 | Oral Roberts def. Ohio State | 75-72 |
| 2016 | Middle Tennessee def. Michigan State | 90-81 |
| 2013 | Florida Gulf Coast def. Georgetown | 78-68 |
| 2012 | Norfolk State def. Missouri | 86-84 |
| 2012 | Lehigh def. Duke | 75-70 |
| 2001 | Hampton def. Iowa State | 58-57 |
| 1997 | Coppin State def. South Carolina | 78-65 |
| 1993 | Santa Clara def. Arizona | 64-61 |
| 1991 | Richmond def. Syracuse | 73-69 |
Who usually gets placed in the 2 vs. 15 game?
The No. 2 seeds are most often from the major conferences and either won their league title or conference tournament or finished runner-up. These are top-10 teams in the AP rankings at the end of the season with strong stat profiles and wins over many quality teams. The No. 15 seeds are from small conferences that won their conference tournament and secured the automatic bid to the NCAA Tournament.
Most college basketball fans and even many bettors know little about the longshots that makeup the No. 15 seeds. More than 95% of fans filling out brackets will pick the No. 2 seed to win and advance.
The NCAA committee selects NCAA Tournament teams based on a number of criteria, and the NCAA Evaluation Tool (NET) was added prior to the 2019 tournament. The NET relies on game results, strength of schedule, scoring margin, net offensive and defensive efficiency, game location and the quality of wins and losses in determining NCAA Tournament teams and seedings.
The No. 15 seed teams don’t have the strength of schedule or quality wins over top teams, or what the committee considers Quadrant 1 wins. But those teams don’t get the opportunity to schedule major conference teams during the regular season. The imbalance from athletic budgets, TV contracts to size, strength and skills of the players is wider overall compared to the major conference players and teams. But there are still many quality teams playing in and winning the small conferences.
Success of 2 and 15 seeds
Since the NCAA Tournament expanded in 1985, there have been just ten upsets in the 2 vs. 15 match-ups.
The first No. 15 seed to upset a No. 2 seed was in 1991 when Richmond shocked Syracuse 73-69. The Spiders never trailed in the game. Two years later, Steve Nash and Santa Clara overcame a 13-point second-half deficit to upset Arizona 64-61 in the 2 vs. 15 matchup. The largest margin of victory ever for a No. 15 was Coppin State’s 78-65 win over South Carolina in 1997. Coppin State was an astounding 30-point underdog and pulled off the improbable upset.
The most recent 15 over a 2 upset took place in the 2023 Big Dance when Princeton upset Arizona 59-55.
Four No. 2 seeds have scored at least 100 points in the 2 vs. 15 match-ups since 1996. In 2017 Arizona rolled to victory over North Dakota 100-82. North Carolina hit the century mark with a 102-87 win over Long Island in 2011. And in 2001 Arizona beat Eastern Illinois 101-76. But UCLA scored the most points ever in the 2 vs. 15 with a 109-75 win over Charleston Southern in 1997.
No 15-seed has ever made the Elite Eight or Final Four. But No. 2 seeds have gone all the way five times as the 1986 Louisville Cardinals, 1991 Duke Blue Devils, 1998 Kentucky Wildcats, 2004 UConn Huskies and 2016 Villanova Wildcats cut down the nets in April. Houston, a 2 seed in 2023, made it all the way to the Final 4.
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