1 vs. 16 Seed History In The NCAA Men’s Basketball Tournament

The biggest upset possible in March Madness is a 16 taking down a 1-seed. It was once thought to be impossible until UMBC (University of Maryland – Baltimore County) stunned the world by upsetting the Virginia Cavaliers seven years ago. It occurred again during the 2023 NCAA Tournament when Fairleigh Dickinson upset Purdue. Here we will look at 1 vs. 16 seed history in the NCAA men’s basketball tournament and look at the 1 versus 16 seeds for the 2025 college basketball tournament.

As millions of fans fill out their March Madness bracket and prepare to start betting on the biggest tournament of the year, bookmakers are setting lines on NCAA Tournament games with the biggest point spreads in the 1 vs. 16 matchups.

1 vs 16

The 1 vs. 16 seed matchups for the 2025 NCAA men’s basketball tournament are about to tip off! Here’s a list of every 1 vs. 16 matchup for the 2025 March Madness tournament:

South Region: No. 1 Auburn (-31.5) vs. Alabama St. | Thursday, March 20 (Lexington, KY)

The Auburn Tigers are taking on the the Alabama State Hornets, a First Four winner over St. Francis (PA) and are a -31.5 favorite. This game total opened at 150.5. The Tigers held a 15-3 conference record throughout the regular season and averaged 85.16 points per game. This game is scheduled to tip at 2:50 p.m. ET (CBS) on Thursday.

West Region: No. 1 Florida (-28.5) vs. 16. Norfolk State | Friday, March 21 (Raleigh, NC)

The Florida Gators begin their journey for their first championship since 2007 with a matchup against the Norfolk State Spartans (6:50 p.m. ET, TNT). The Gators are currently favored by 28.5 points, which isn’t a huge surprise considering the team’s 29-4 record. The current point total for the game is set at 153.5. Meanwhile, anyone expecting a major upset can take Norfolk State on the moneyline at +5000.

East Region: No. 1 Duke (-31.5) vs. No. 16 Mount St. Mary’s | Friday, March 21 (Raleigh, NC)

Despite an ankle injury to star Cooper Flagg, the Duke Blue Devils are one of the favorites to win the tournament. Head coach Jon Scheyer is looking to bring Duke another championship, and a healthy return for Flagg (18.9 points per game) would definitely help. The Blue Devils are play First Four winner Mount St. Mary’s Mountaineers (2:50 p.m. ET, CBS). Duke opened as a -31.5 favorite while the game total was 142.5.

Midwest Region: No. 1 Houston (-29.5) vs. No. 16 SIU Edwardsville | Thursday, March 20 (Wichita, KS)

After plenty of deep runs in previous years, the Houston Cougars are a popular pick to win it all this year. The team starts out with a first round matchup (2 p.m. ET, TBS) against the SIU Edwardsville Cougars, with a massive 29.5 point spread favoring Houston. The over/under for the game, meanwhile is currently 127.5. Houston averaged 74.2 points per game throuhgout the regular season while SIU Edwardsville averaged 72.6.

These numbers may shift, so make sure to keep an eye on the latest March Madness odds for each 1 vs. 16 matchup.

1 vs 16 seed history

There was some drama when it came to 1 vs. 16 seed games last year after all four No. 1 seeds prevailed by comfortable margins. Here is a look at those scores:

• 1. Connecticut 91, 16. Stetson 52
• 1. Houston 86, 16. Longwood 46
• 1. Purdue 78, 16. Grambling 50
• 1. North Carolina 90, 16. Wagner 62

Here are what 1 versus 16 spreads looked like last year.

• UConn (-26.5) vs. Stetson (+26.5)
• Houston (-23.5) vs. Longwood (+23.5)
• Purdue (-26) vs. Grambling (+26)
• North Carolina (-25) vs. Wagner (+25)

Number 1 seeds went 4-0 straight up last year and 4-0 Against The Spread. UConn was a 26.5 favorite against Stetson and covered with a 39-point win. Houson won by 40 points over Longwood and covered the 23.5-point line. The Purdue vs. Grambling game was closer in terms of the spread, with the Boilermakers winning by 28. UNC picked up a 28-point victory over Wagner, and covered the 25-point spread.

1 vs. 16 seed all-time record: 154-2

NCAA basketball tournament 1 seeds are 154-2 versus No. 16 seeds since 1985.

Since 2000, those big favorites and No. 1 seeds are 90-2 SU. The history of the 1 vs 16 matchup finally had a stunning finish and result in 2018 when UMBC became the first 16 seed ever to upset a No. 1 seed. It happened again two years ago when Fairleigh Dickinson stunned Purdue with a 5-point win.

Very few fans knew what UMBC stood for or the team’s name or conference. But the University of Maryland, Baltimore County from the American East conference were the talk of the sports world after the Retrievers upset the ACC champs and top seed Virginia, 74-54. UMBC had been a 20.5 point underdog. The Retrievers finished the season 25-11 after losing in the next round to Kansas State, while Virginia finished 31-3.

The 1 vs 16 match-ups are often blowouts with large spreads. Nine times since 2000 has a No. 16 seed stayed within 10 points of a No. 1 seed. Most recently, Syracuse held off UNC Asheville 72-65 in 2012, and in 2013 Kansas avoided the upset in a 64-57 win over Western Kentucky. In 2014, Arizona won by nine points over Weber State, 68-59.

Going back further for the other closest games – Michigan State beat Murray State 75-71 in 1991, and in 1996 – Purdue edged Western Carolina, 73-71.

Success of 1 vs. 16 seeds

While UMBC and Fairleigh Dickinson are the only 16 seeds to pull the historic upset, two other teams suffered 1-point losses to a top seed. They both happened in 1989. In the classic David versus Goliath, Princeton slowed down the game and used its smarts and motion offense to take Georgetown to the wire before falling 50-49. Then top seed Oklahoma stormed back from a 17 point deficit to avoid history and outlast East Tennessee State (ETSU), 72-71.

One year after losing as a top seed in the opening round, Virginia returned as a No. 1 seed again and won the school’s first national championship in 2019. The Cavaliers were the third straight No. 1 seed to cut down the nets and win the NCAA Tournament. Villanova swept through the 2018 tournament to win each game by double digits and reward bettors by going 6-0 ATS. North Carolina cut down the nets in winning the 2017 tournament.

Since 1979, North Carolina (17), Kansas (16), Duke (14), and Kentucky (12) have been a No. 1 seed the most times. A No. 1 seed has won the NCAA Tournament 25 times since 1985, with the Connecticut Huskies being the most recent. Those teams have reached the Final Four 61 times.

Only once have all four No. 1 seeds made it to the Final Four, and that was in 2008 when Kansas, Memphis, North Carolina and UCLA all advanced to the national semifinals. There have been nine National Championship games pitting a 1 seed versus a 1 seed since 1985, including the Connecticut versus Purdue showdown last year.

Who usually gets placed in the 1 vs. 16 game?

The NCAA committee selects NCAA Tournament teams based on a number of criteria, and the NCAA Evaluation Tool (NET) was added prior to the 2019 tournament. The NET relies on game results, strength of schedule, scoring margin, net offensive and defensive efficiency, game location and the quality of wins and losses in determining NCAA Tournament teams and seedings.

The No. 16 seed teams don’t have the strength of schedule or quality wins over top teams, or what the committee considers Quadrant 1 wins. But those teams also don’t get the opportunity to schedule major conference teams during the regular season. The imbalance from athletic budgets, size, strength and skills of the players is wider overall compared to the major conference players and teams. Sixteen seeds are often winners of lower-tier conference tournaments.

The No. 1 seeds, meanwhile, are the dominant teams who won their conference and are most often from the Power-6 conferences. Connecticut (Big East), Purdue (Big Ten), Houston (Big 12) and North Carolina (ACC) were the 1 seeds a year ago.

One seeds are typically ranked in the top 5 of the final Associated Press Poll. They possess the strongest stat profiles and have proven to be the best teams. The No. 16 seeds are from small conferences that won their conference tournament and secured the automatic bid to the NCAA Tournament. Some of these weaker teams failed to win their regular season title, but got through their conference tournament to advance to the Big Dance.