The Chiefs have picked up right where they left off– running through their schedule and dominating their heaviest competition. Patrick Mahomes is looking worth every cent of his brand new half-a-billion dollar contract and the defensive questions have effectively been erased. Rookie Clyde Edwards-Helaire is also shaping up to be the steal of the draft, along with fellow rookie cornerback L’Jarius Sneed. The two have been the brightest spots for a Kansas City team that, at times, struggled to run the football and matchup against tough receivers in 2019. They’re well on their way to making another Super Bowl run, becoming the first team in NFL history to begin 4-0 in four consecutive seasons.
We will break down the Chiefs schedule, Super Bowl futures odds and outlook for 2020, and update some of the Chiefs’ offseason personnel moves that may impact their chances for another strong season and fifth consecutive division title.
Kansas City Chiefs Week 7 odds
Cold, rainy weather and the Bills defensive scheme forced the Chiefs into a run-first offense but it didn’t matter; Kansas City ran roughshod over the Buffalo defense, amassing 245 yards on the ground. Mahomes was efficient in his limited passing, going 21-of-26 for 225 yards and two touchdowns. The defense played even better, limiting Josh Allen to 122 passing yards and holding the Bills to 84 total rushing yards.
Kansas City will try to move to 6-1 against Denver, opening as 10-point road favorites. The Broncos are coming off a road win at New England despite not scoring a touchdown.
The Chiefs offense may have a stiffer test than expected– Denver’s defense is getting healthier and advanced analytics back that up. The Broncos are the top-rated PFF defense and sixth in team defense DVOA. PFF also ranks Denver second in rush defense, sixth in tackling, fourth in pass coverage, and ninth in pass rush. It’ll be interesting to see if Denver can get to Mahomes as the Chiefs are only allowing 1.2 sacks per game (third).
Clyde Edwards-Hellaire went off against the Bills with 26 carries for 161 yards, but probably won’t see the same success against Denver. The Broncos have only allowed two 100-yard rushers this season (Derrick Henry, James Connor) and neither had more than 110. New signee Le’Veon Bell may get his first action this week and will probably be used more as a pass catcher.
Chiefs futures odds
Chiefs Super Bowl odds
Kansas City is making their way down the AFC contenders list, having now beaten Baltimore, New England, and Buffalo. Because of this, they remain tops on odds tables to win the Super Bowl at +400.
AFC West odds
There’s no team in the NFL in firmer control of their division than the Chiefs; they sit as -1000 favorites in the AFC West. Barring total collapse, it’s their’s to lose.
Kansas City Chiefs 2020 schedule and betting odds
|Week 1||Thursday, Sept. 10||8:20 ET||vs. Houston||Chiefs -10|
|Week 2||Sunday, Sept. 20||4:25 ET||at Los Angeles Chargers||Chiefs -6.5|
|Week 3||Monday, Sept. 28||8:15 ET||at Baltimore||Ravens -1|
|Week 4||Sunday, Oct. 4||4:25 ET||vs. New England||Chiefs -8|
|Week 5||Sunday, Oct. 11||1:00 ET||vs. Las Vegas||Chiefs -11|
|Week 6||Thursday, Oct. 15||8:20 ET||at Buffalo||Chiefs -4.5|
|Week 7||Sunday, Oct. 25||4:25 ET||at Denver||Chiefs -7.5|
|Week 8||Sunday, Nov. 1||1:00 ET||vs. New York Jets||Chiefs -13.5|
|Week 9||Sunday, Nov. 8||1:00 ET||vs. Carolina||Chiefs -16|
|Week 11||Sunday, Nov. 22||8:20 ET||at Las Vegas||N/A|
|Week 12||Sunday, Nov. 29||4:25 ET||at Tampa Bay||Chiefs -2.5|
|Week 13||Sunday, Dec. 6||8:20 ET||vs. Denver||Chiefs -11|
|Week 14||Sunday, Dec. 13||1:00 ET||at Miami||Chiefs -12|
|Week 15||Sunday, Dec. 20||4:25 ET||at New Orleans||Chiefs -1|
|Week 16||Sunday, Dec. 27||1:00 ET||vs. Atlanta||Chiefs -10|
|Week 17||Sunday, Jan. 3||1:00 ET||vs. Los Angeles Chargers||N/A|
How to bet on the Kansas City Chiefs
Pick the team to win the game and you bet the moneyline. You will often have to lay a pretty big price on the Chiefs to win if betting the moneyline. Kansas City was at least a touchdown (-6) or more favorite in 10 games last season, including the playoffs. A 7-point NFL favorite (-7) is approximately -370 on the moneyline, meaning you would have to lay $370 to win $100. An underdog of 7 points (+7) would be approximately +285 on the moneyline, so a $100 bet would return a profit of $285.
The point spread is made by the oddsmaker to essentially set the margin of victory. If you bet on the Chiefs as a 7-point favorite (-7) then Kansas City would have to win by more than 7 points to win your bet. You would usually lay 10 cents on the odds, so an $11 bet would win $10 or $110 to win $100.
If the Chiefs are a 7-point underdog, conversely, then you win your bet if the Chiefs win the game or lose by less than 7 points. A margin of victory by exactly 7 points would be a push and there would be a refund of your bet.
NFL total bets, also referred to as the over/under, pay out based on the total combined points of the two teams in a contest. You make your bet on whether you believe the total amount of points scored in the game will be more or less than the oddsmakers posted total. Chiefs games are among the highest totals on the board each week. Kansas City had nine games last season including the playoffs with a posted total of at least 51 points. The over/under in those games was 5-4 (five overs and four unders).
Props or “proposition bets” are any type of side bet that generally does not directly affect the outcome of the game. NFL prop bets can range from individual player performances like QB passing yards or RB rushing yards, to exact scores, team win totals or props tied to which team a player might sign with or start for in Week 1. Sportsbooks like FanDuel and DraftKings can offer more creative options and take more risk with larger betting volume.
Player props are posted at many sportsbooks, including FanDuel and DraftKings, for selected QBs, RBs and WRs with plenty of months ahead of the season to evaluate the players and projections. Mahomes gets a lot of interest from bettors and his 2019 Over/Under passing yards total is 4,550.5 and his passing touchdowns O/U is 35.5 at DraftKings Sportsbook. FanDuel has Mahomes’ O/U passing yards at 4,499.5. Tight end Travis Kelce’s receiving yards O/U is 1,225.5 (Under -125).
Despite missing 2.5 games with a knee injury, Mahomes passed for 4,031 and 26 touchdowns to just five interceptions. He ranked No. 2 in the league in ESPN’s QB Rating which values the quarterback on all play types adjusted for the strength of opposing defenses faced. Mahomes passed for another 901 yards and 10 touchdowns in three playoff wins which included a Super Bowl victory.
Following 50 touchdown passes and 5,097 passing yards in 2018, Mahomes was the +450 co-favorite to pass for the most touchdowns during the 2019 regular season. But he did not win, finishing top 10 with 26 TD passes. His season O/U passing touchdowns was set at 36.,5 which he also failed to reach. Mahomes missed 10 quarters and passed for 4,031 yards, which was short of his regular season O/U passing prop of 4,650.5 yards.
Any bet made on an event in the future is a future wager. In the NFL, those include odds on which team will win the Super Bowl, conference or division titles, or season over/under win bets. Player futures bets can be for Most Valuable Player (MVP), Rookie of the Year or other year-end awards in the future. Oddmakers adjust the futures odds based on amount of money wagered, public perception, personnel losses and additions to teams, winning or losing streaks during a season and other factors.
Teasers are adjusted lines from the same game with at least two contests bet to complete the wager. A bettor is allowed to “buy” points and move the point spread. In the NFL, this is 6 (-120), 6.5 (-130) or 7 points (-140). The odds can be slightly higher at some sportsbooks. If the Chiefs are a 6.5-point favorite, you can move the line to -0.5 on a 6-point teaser and the Chiefs just have to win the game to complete the first leg of your teaser. If you made a two team 6-point teaser wager, then your other wager would have to also win.
In addition, if you teased an underdog like the Broncos from +2 to +8, for example, then Denver would have to win the game or lose by less than 8 points to complete the two team teaser. A $12 bet would win $10, or $120 to win $100 and both games/teams have to cover the adjusted point spread.
Also referred to as “in-game” wagering, these bets are more popular than ever and provide fans and bettors to watch and wager on more outcomes throughout a contest. It’s easy and accessible from a mobile app with a sports betting account at FanDuel or DraftKings and allowed within the state borders where those companies offer legal wagering with mobile betting. During the course of a contest, the odds, lines, totals change based on the current score, which team has the ball, field position and time remaining. Oddsmakers adjust, and bettors fire in bets as the lines and odds change from play to play.
Chiefs 2019 recap
The 2019 Chiefs had their seventh straight season with a winning record under Reid, finishing 12-4 for their fourth straight AFC West title. KC went 10-5-1 ATS despite high expectations and being favored in 13 games.
Quarterback Patrick Mahomes missed two full games with a knee injury and the Chiefs were underdogs in both contests going 1-1 SU/ATS. Kansas City surprisingly lost three home games, but the Chiefs were still 6-0 against AFC West opponents and the only AFC team to win all their division games.
Mahomes suffered a knee injury on Oct. 17 in a 30-6 road win at Denver and he missed the next two games. A huge adjustment in the point spread was made as the Chiefs were a 5-point home underdog to both the Packers and Vikings. Kansas City lost to Green Bay 31-24, but KC beat Minnesota on a last second field goal, 26-23.
The Chiefs QB returned from injury the following week at Tennessee and passed 50 times for 446 yards and 3 touchdowns. But the Chiefs blew a 9-point fourth quarter lead and lost, 35-32. Sitting at 6-4 on the season, Kansas City then went on to win its final six games to close the regular season and earn a first round bye in the playoffs. Five of those final six wins went under the total, and the Chiefs finished the season 8-8 Over/Under. The Chiefs defense made significant improvements in the second half of the season to complement its 30 points per game offense on their way to a Super Bowl win.
Chiefs 2020 offseason moves
Key trades: None
Key re-signings: RB Damien Williams (2020 team option of $2.3 million picked up), CB Bashaud Breeland (one year, $4.5 million), WR DeMarcus Robinson (one year, $2.3 million)
Key free-agent losses: CB Kendall Fuller (to WASH), LB Emmanuel Ogbah (to MIA), G Stefan Wisniewski (to PIT)
Key free-agent signings: OL Mike Remmers (Giants), CB Antonio Hamilton (Giants)
The Chiefs kept much of their Super Bowl championship team together. Running back Damien Williams was re-signed, and he’ll now be pressed for the starting spot with rookie first round draft pick Clyde Edwards-Helaire adding another multi-dimensional running back to the Chiefs’ awesome attack.
Free agent losses have weakened the defense, and second round pick Willie Gay can help at linebacker as he has quality-starter upside and could make rookie year starts. The Chiefs have a need at cornerback, however. They could certainly use more depth in the defensive backfield to add beyond two rookies drafted in rounds 4-7 this year.