Mets star Pete Alonso (+280) is the favorite to win this year’s HR Derby at T-Mobile Park in Seattle. Home Run Derby odds for all of the players in this year’s contest are below. Other top names on the HR Derby odds board include Luis Robert (+450), Vladimir Guerrero (+370) and Adolis Garcia (+650).
Home Run Derby odds
Home Run Derby odds for the 2023 MLB contest are now available at online sports betting sites. You can view HR Derby odds below and click to bet now.
FanDuel Sportsbook has set the total combined home runs for all players at over/under 276.5 with -113 odds on either side.
Pete Alonso (+280)
Alonso is playing in his fourth Home Run Derby, and is looking to win the event for the third time. He was the 2019 and 2021 HR Derby champion. Alonso needs one more win to join Hall of Famer Ken Griffey Jr. on the exclusive list of three-time winners. The Mets first baseman is among the reserves named to the National League All-Star team. Alonso has 25 home runs so far this season, good enough for third best among all MLB hitters.
Vlad Guerrero (+370)
Guerrero, the Blue Jays slugger, is confirmed as well. He competed in the 2019 Home Run Derby as a rookie and finished second behind Pete Alonso of the New York Mets. Despite finishing with a record 90 homers, he ended up losing by one point in the final round. Through the first three months of the 2023 MLB season, Guerrero is hitting .281 with 12 home runs.
Luis Robert (+450)
Besides making his first American League All-Star team, Robert will be making his Home Run Derby debut. The White Sox outfielder is tied for third among all MLB hitters with 25 dingers. Despite his White Sox struggling in the standings, Robert has already shattered his previous career high for home runs in a season (13). If he wins, Robert will join Frank Thomas as the only White Sox players to win the HR Derby.
Julio Rodriguez (+500)
It should comes as no surprise J-Rod is participating once again being that the All-Star Game is taking place at T-Mobile Park – home of his Seattle Mariners. Rodriguez confirmed the rumors via Twitter: “July 10. See you in Seattle.” The reigning American League Rookie of the Year finished as runner-up to Juan Soto in the 2022 Derby. Rodriguez is currently going through a sophomore slump with a .248 batting average and 13 dingers. J-Rod enters the contest with home field advantage. In last year’s Home Run Derby at Dodgers Stadium, Rodriguez set a rookie record with 32 first-round homers.
Mookie Betts (+700)
Betts announced he will be participating in the Home Run Derby for the first time in his MLB career after being named a starting outfielder for the National League All-Star team. Betts leads the Dodgers offense with 23 home runs, good enough for fifth among all MLB hitters. This year marks his seventh consecutive ASG appearance and fifth as a starter.
Adolis Garcia (+650)
Besides playing in next week’s All-Star Game as an American League reserve, Garcia is joining the list of first time Home Run Derby participants. The Texas Rangers outfielder is putting up the numbers (22 home runs, 71 RBI) that make him a legitimate contender to win this year’s event. Garcia’s bat is one of the reasons why the Rangers are tops in MLB with a +157 run differential. His 71 runs batted in leads all MLB players. Juan Gonzalez (1993) is the last Rangers player to win this contest.
Randy Arozarena (+850)
Aronzarena is another first time Home Run Derby participant. He will be one of the starting outfielders for the American League All-Star team. After finishing with 20 home runs in each of the last two seasons, Aronzarena (16 home runs) is on pace to set a new single season career high. He is currently tied for the Tampa Bay team HR lead with fellow outfielder Jose Siri, while his 58 RBI rank are tops among all Rays players.
Adley Rutschman (+1300)
Besides Orioles catcher Rutschman being among the American League All-Star team reserves, he is entering this year’s HR Derby. Both are career firsts for the second-year MLB player. As far as the Home Run derby goes, Rutschman’s name might seem a little out of place compared to the other participants. He has 24 career dingers, 11 of which have come this season. As a side note, this event has never been won by a catcher. Former Texas Rangers catcher Ivan “Pudge” Rodriguez was the 2005 runner-up.
Odds to hit longest home run
View odds to hit the longest home run in the HR Derby below.
Home Run Derby details
The annual homage to the game’s most impactful in-game event, the Home Run Derby gathers eight of the game’s most prodigious sluggers to compete in a bracket-style, single-elimination tournament.
Some of the particulars of the 2023 Home Run Derby includes:
- Date: Monday, July 10 at 8 p.m. Eastern
- Location: T-Mobile Park, Seattle, Washington
- Where to watch: ESPN will offer the main telecast of the Home Run Derby. ESPN2 will offer an alternate, more data-driven telecast that will include analysis on Statcast metrics.
- Prize pool: The prize pool for this year’s Home Run Derby is a hefty $2.5 million. The winner of the event will collect $1 million.
- Defending champion: Juan Soto
First round matchups
The first round matchups for the 2023 HR Derby are now set. The seedings are based on each player’s home run totals as of July 4. Round 1 winner odds are now available at BetMGM.
- No. 1 Luis Robbert Jr. (-225) vs. No. 8 Adley Rutschman (+180)
- No. 2 Pete Alonso (-165) vs. No. 7 Julio Rodriguez (+140)
- No. 3 Mookie Betts (+140) vs. No. 6 Vladimir Guerrero Jr. (-165)
- No. 4 Adolis Garcia (-145) vs. No. 5 Randy Arozarena (+120)
Home Run Derby rules
The Home Run Derby has been the subject of multiple formats since its inception in 1985. The current iteration, largely in place since 2015, is as follows:
- The 2022 version will feature a single-elimination, bracket-style tournament with three total rounds.
- Hitters will have 3 minutes to belt homers in both Round 1 and Round 2. In the final round, hitters will get 2 minutes.
- The winner of the Schwarber versus Pujols matchup will face the winner of the Soto versus Ramirez matchup. The winner of the Alonso versus Acuna matchup will square off against the winner of the Seager versus Rodriguez clash.
- In the event of a tie during a head-to-head showdown, the two batters will compete in a 1 minute HR contest. If there is still a tie following the 1 minute contest the two batters will compete in a “three pitch swing-off” until there is a winner.
Best baseball betting sites
Wagering on the Derby: A unique proposition
Predicting who might come out on top is likely trickier than a conventional team-based bet due to the similarity in the talent levels between the majority of participants. In other words, there aren’t supposed to be any pushovers or tomato cans taking their hacks in the contest (although this year, old man Albert Pujols is competing – due to his impending retirement – for mainly nostalgic reasons).
Listed odds reflect the probabilities of each player’s success in the eyes of the bookmakers/betting public, as usual. But, Derby lines might be at least a tad less predictive than your standard wagering scenario. The quality of pitches a player sees and his overall endurance come into play. So too does any potential injury situation a player may come into the contest with.
Then, as is the case during any game in the season, the setting also plays a role.
Stadiums with park factors more conducive to the long ball will naturally boost the upside of every participant to a certain degree. That alone could make the outcome even more difficult to pin down.
And, participants who happen find themselves in their home ballpark would certainly carry a certain edge. Their intimate knowledge of relevant stadium specs such as dimensions, wind angles, etc. would presumably serve as valuable tools when trying to rack up the round trippers.