This year’s Valero Texas Open will take place Thursday, March 30 through Sunday, April 2 at TPC San Antonio (Oaks Course) in San Antonio, Texas. JJ Spaun was a surprise winner here last year, as he cruised to victory amidst high gusting winds to pick up his first career PGA TOUR victory. He will return for his title defense in 2023. Below we will provide a betting guide for the 2023 contest, which will include Valero Texas Open odds as soon as they are posted by top sportsbooks.
VALERO TEXAS OPEN ODDS
Valero Texas Open odds have been posted by top sportsbooks. Compare Valero Texas Open betting odds below. Tyrrell Hatton +1200 and Rickie Fowler +1600 are the betting favorites at most sportsbooks.
The field for the 2023 Valero Texas Open will be officially announced on Friday, March 24. Until then, here are the odds for John Haslbauer’s projected favorites a month out from the event.
- Tyrrell Hatton +1200
- Hideki Matsuyama +1400
- Rickie Fowler +2000
- Si Woo Kim +2200
- Corey Conners +2200
TPC San Antonio (Oaks Course) Course Preview
Standing just over 7,400 yards, the par-72 set up at TPC San Antonio asks for a steady dosage of drivers off-the-tee, despite featuring narrower-than-TOUR-average fairways. Similar to other Texas venues on the PGA TOUR schedule, such as Austin Country Club, Colonial CC, Memorial Park, and TPC Craig Ranch, the course’s best defense is the wind, as the severity of conditions have resulted in a drastic swing of winning sores between -8 to -20 over the last 10 years. As always, it will be key to monitor the weather ahead of the 2023 Valero Texas Open, as higher winds will reward players with elite approach play and place a heavier emphasis on scrambling.
How It Breaks Down
Despite the length, driving distance hardly correlates at all with success at this course. Players like Jordan Spieth, Ryan Moore, Brandt Snedeker and Kevin Streelman have shown they can thrive. Wind is a defining characteristic, and it’s interesting to note that the course layout was designed so that holes that play uphill will naturally play downwind, while downhill holes will play into the wind. This has effectively neutralized any significant advantage from bombers. Additionally, similar to what we’ve seen at the recent Corales Golf Course, three of the four par 5s at TPC San Antonio will play around 600 yards. That limits longer hitters from reaching in two, leveling the scoring opportunities.
Thirteen holes have a scoring average over par. Only the par-5 18th hole features a birdie rate over 33%. With three par 5s playing around 600 yards and two par 4s playing nearly 500 yards, we see a notable funnel of 19% of approach shots coming from over 250 yards, double the TOUR average. Players hit the narrow fairways at slightly below the TOUR average rate. The rough, both around the fairways and greens, is not grown out and has not been penal for off-center shots. Players also hit greens in regulation at a rate of about 61% here, well below TOUR average. Easier-than-average scrambling conditions mitigate that, though. Just like Valspar and THE PLAYERS, the greens will feature an over-seeded blend of Bermuda and Poa.
Kevin Na famously recorded a 16 on the par-4 ninth hole here back in 2012. Players who spray their drives will certainly find themselves counting penalty strokes. Despite its length, players with moderate distance who can avoid lateral punch outs and set up their second shots have seen repeated success. The course’s high winds have caused drastic swings in winning scores. In 2016 and 2017 in high sustained winds, -12 proved good enough. The next three years featured more moderate conditions and yielded winning scores of -17 or better. In 2019, when Corey Conners won at -20, the course received a ton of rain in tournament week, softening up the conditions and making scoring easier.
TPC SAN ANTONIO OAKS COURSE SPECS
- Yards: 7,438
- Par: 72 (4x 3’s / 10x 4’s / 4x 5’s)
- Greens: Bermuda with Poa overseed (Slow)
- Average Green Size: 6,400 sq. ft.
- Average Fairway Width: 25-30 yards (Below-Average)
- Rough: 2.25″ Rye (Below-Average)
- Architect: Greg Norman & Sergio Garcia
- Historic Cut Line: +2
- Comp Courses: GC of Houston, Memorial Park, Silverado Resort, Corales Golf Club, Detroit Golf Club, Colonial CC, TPC Twin Cities, TPC Southwind
- Hole-by-hole Breakdown:
VALERO TEXAS OPEN ODDS: BETTING TRENDS
Looking across recent results, Charley Hoffman, Jordan Spieth, Brandt Snedeker, Corey Conners, and Ryan Moore highlight the list of players who have repeatedly played well at the Valero Texas Open, suggesting an advantage for top iron players who are familiar with windy Texas conditions.
Over the last 10 years, this event has produced many longshot, first time winners, with five winners opening at 100-1 odds or longer. Three have the last four winners have opened beyond 200-1 odds. Given the volatility of weather conditions and questionable motivation from the top players in these fields, it’s a great opportunity for bettors to take a chance on longshot bets.
The below table tracks consensus pre-tournament outright odds for the last 10 winners of Valero Texas Open.
| Year | Winner | Pre-Tournament Odds | Winning Score | Field Median Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2022 | J.J. Spaun | +20000 | -13 | -5 |
| 2021 | Jordan Spieth | +1600 | -18 | -2 |
| 2020 | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| 2019 | Corey Conners | +20000 | -20 | -6 |
| 2018 | Andrew Landry | +20000 | -17 | -2 |
| 2017 | Kevin Chappell | +3300 | -12 | +1 |
| 2016 | Charley Hoffman | +3000 | -12 | -3 |
| 2015 | Jimmy Walker | +2500 | -11 | +5 |
| 2014 | Steven Bowditch | +35000 | -8 | +1 |
| 2013 | Martin Laird | +10000 | -14 | -1 |
HOW TO BET THE VALERO TEXAS OPEN
The Valero Texas Open might not be a big golf betting draw like the upcoming Masters (Aug. 6-9 at Augusta National), but this PGA Tour event still offers several ways to place a bet. Looking at three out of the last four winners above, you will notice J.J. Spaun, Corey Conners and Andrew Landry all pre-tournament odds of 200-1. Is there an outright winner you like with similar odds? Keep in mind there is no guarantee the trend will continue.
Take a look at the 2023 World Golf Rankings and see if any of the top-25 players have entered. Jordan Spieth, the 2021 winner, is currently ranked No. 14. Is he playing again?
With many tour events, sportsbooks also offer golf odds for top-10 and top-20 finishes. If there are several golfers you’re considering backing, this is an alternative option. Keep in mind the betting lines will be much shorter versus betting on an outright winner.
And keep an eye on the weather conditions. Is there rain or heavy winds in the forecast? Poor weather might negatively impact how certain players perform.