Waste Management Phoenix Open Odds: Outright Winner Lines, How To Bet And More

This year’s WM Phoenix Open will take place Thursday, February 8 through Sunday, February 11 at TPC Scottsdale in Scottsdale, Arizona. Phoenix Open odds for outright winner have already been posted by select sportsbooks, and top 5 finish, top 10, and top 20 will soon follow. Scottie Scheffler picked up his first career PGA TOUR victory at this event two years ago, kickstarting his Player of the Year campaign, and successfully defended his title last year. Scheffler is expected to return to attempt a three-peat this year.

Below we will provide a betting guide for the 2024 contest and much more.

WM Phoenix Open odds

View Phoenix Open odds from the top golf betting sites below. Scottie Scheffler was the early favorite as he was +500 to win the WM Phoenix Open on Jan. 9. Rory McIlroy was a close second at +800.

[metabet_core_futures_board league="pga" query="542916" site_id="thelines"]

TPC SCOTTSDALE COURSE SPECS

• Yards: 7,261
• Par: 71 (4x 3s / 11x 4s / 3x 5s)
• Greens: Bermuda over-seeded with Bent, Poa, and Rye (Firm & Fast)
• Average Green Size: 7,069 sq. ft. (Large)
• Average Fairway Width: 31 Yards (Below Average)
• Rough: 2" Rye & Fescue
• Architect: Tom Weiskopf
• Historical Cut Line: Even to -2
• Comp Courses: TPC Summerlin, TPC Sawgrass, Stadium Course, The Summit Club, Silverado Resort, Southern Hills, Shadow Creek, PGA National, TPC Twin Cities, Recent British Links Courses

Introduction to TPC Scottsdale

One of the most recognizable venues on TOUR, the biggest party on the PGA TOUR schedule always fall Super Bowl weekend in Scottsdale.

How It Breaks Down

TPC Scottsdale is average in distance by TOUR standards. It sits at just over 7,200 yards as a Par-71 that trades one par-5 for an additional par-4. Its elevation, dry desert climate, and firm conditions, produces the longest average driving distance of any course on TOUR each year: 305 yards. That's 16 yards longer than TOUR average, opening the door for shorter players like Webb Simpson and Chez Reavie.

The course features 10 par-4s between 400-500 yards. All three par-5s stand between 550-600 yards, reachable for most of the field. Approach buckets are evenly spread and do not vary much from the TOUR average, so I'll be bypassing any Proximity range modeling in favor of broad SG: APP. Of note, approaches from 200+ yards are the least frequent here given the distance boost in these desert conditions. It may be an opportunity to buy low on players who typically struggle from long range but are strong on Approach otherwise. Some of those buy-low candidates who specialize from inside 200 yards include Russell Henley, Andrew Putnam, Tommy Fleetwood, Tony Finau, Hideki Matsuyama, Lee Hodges, and Erik van Rooyen.

A number of risk/reward holes on this course bring water into play– notably the drivable par-4 17th. Players who are strong off the tee and can get aggressive taking on these water hazards will have a leg up in generating birdie-or-better opportunities.

The greens at TPC Scottsdale roll pure and fast on an over-seeded hybrid grass blend. Those smooth greens have yielded the third-highest make percentage on putts from outside 15-feet on TOUR. That opens the door for historically-weaker putters like Hideki Matsuyama, Chez Reavie, Kyle Stanley, Kevin Stadler and Bubba Watson to find success here. It's not a week I tend to look very closely at Putting form leading in.

Traits and Notable Facts

What makes TPC Scottsdale unique compared to other PGA TOUR courses is the persistence of hazards that neighbor the fairways. The 2" rough is not especially penal here. In many cases, it serves beneficial to players stopping the ball from trickling into water hazards or natural desert cacti. It ranks top five in Missed Fairway Penalty Fraction each of the last seven years as a result, so players in control of their ball off the tee in these firm conditions are best suited to avoid blow-up holes.

WM PHOENIX OPEN ODDS: BETTING TRENDS & COURSE HISTORY

TPC Scottsdale is a stadium-style tournament course that features a volume of risk-reward holes and rewards players who are willing to play aggressively to attack tight pins around neighboring hazards. The WM Phoenix Open, also known as The People's Open, is the biggest party of the golf season. Expect a raucous crowd, and look for players who have played well in other fan-driven events like THE PLAYERS, Ryder Cup, and Presidents Cup to thrive in this environment.

In nine of the last 10 years, the winner of this event opened between 10-1 and 50-1. Given the pressure and intensity from the crowd, the cream tends to rise to the top here. It may be best to target a shorter pool of players towards the top tier of this field when considering WM Phoenix Open outright odds.

How to bet on the WM Phoenix Open

More and more states are legalizing sports betting and there are plenty of novice bettors out there. If the Waste Management Phoenix Open is the first golf event you have ever bet on, you've come to the right place to familiarize yourself with wagering on putts and pitching wedges. This might also be good for veteran golf bettors to brush up on what's what when it comes to placing a bet on golf.

Some golf betting markets are best for entertainment value, offering gaudy odds week-to-week with a very low win percentage, while others are more suitable to slow bankroll building with even lines more akin to what you’ll find across other popular sports. Below is a quick rundown of all the most popular ways you can bet on golf.

Outright

Outright betting is the most popular way to bet on golf, offering more appealing odds than most any other market or sport. An outright is a bet on who you think will win the golf tournament. With golf tournaments played over four rounds from Thursday through Sunday most weeks, a pre-tournament outright bet is considered to be a future bet.

In golf, the favorite often posts between 8-1 to 12-1 odds, and is rarely the one who goes on to win, with so much parity in the sport currently. There are certain weeks where players with 200-1 odds are popular bets and viable to win, so it’s always worth diversifying exposure across multiple players week-to-week when considering outright betting.

Outright betting is a long game. A full field in a PGA TOUR event can be up to 156 players, so the odds are not in your favor to successfully hit an outright every week. It’s important to remain patient and stick to a weekly, repeatable structure if looking to be profitable betting outrights long term. My personal structure is to bet an 8:1 ratio of units bet to units paid for outright betting. This ensures a breakeven for one outright win every eight weeks, or roughly 6 outright wins over the course of a full season. Each bettor should decide their own preference and risk tolerance, but it is recommended to not structure your outright betting below 6:1 to turn a long term profit.

Select sportsbooks will offer Each Way markets, which duplicate your outright bet and pay out in full if a player finishes in the top 4-7 (depending on the sportsbook and market). Bettors without access to Each Way markets may also consider manually pairing their outright bets with a top-5 bet as a safeguard.

First Round Leader

With so much volatility day-to-day in golf, the First Round Leader market is one meant more for entertainment purposes, and is not a reliable market to turn around profits consistently. Given the volatility of what can happen in one round of golf, this market often offers longer odds than outrights, and pays out at the conclusion of the first round.

Round Leader markets are available in R2 and R3 as well.

Placement Bets (Top-5, 10, 20, 40)

Placement Bets are my preferred market to bet golf when looking to build a weekly bankroll. In most weeks, you’ll find the favorites at near even odds to finish top-10, and can find the mid-range of the field in the +200 to +400 range to finish top-20. For longshots who are unlikely to contend, but are well-suited for a given course, top-40 bets can also be an appealing market.

Of note, most sportsbooks offer dead heat rules for placement bets. This means if a top-10 bet is placed, and that player finishes T10, tied with three other players, then the originally owed payout will be divided by four. With dead heats common in golf, it is ideal to bet placements on sportsbooks that do not offer dead heat rules, where possible.

Matchups (Individual Round & Full Tournament)

Another popular golf betting market is matchups. Matchups, especially for single rounds, tend to be a high volume bet, and are best placed when a bettor feels both positive about one side and negative about the other side of the matchup.

Personally, I try to avoid betting golf for profit in single-round increments, as I feel the volume of four days is a much wider sample for the better player to prevail. For that reason, I tend to only consider full-tournament matchups, however this is limiting to the total number of matchup options a bettor will have per week.

Beyond standard head to head matchups, there are also three-ball matchups, which offer better odds for players to choose who will finish best from a ground of three.

Live Betting

Golf odds are always dynamic as a tournament plays out, which creates appealing live betting opportunities, whether looking to hedge against a pre-tournament outright, or buy in on a placement bet. When live betting, it can often be useful to reference live strokes gained data to identify players who are strong from tee-to-green and simply not making putts, as putting is a volatile statistically that can more easily be turned around day-to-day. DataGolf is a preferred free resource to monitor live strokes gained data.