This year’s Mexico Open at Vidanta will take place Thursday, April 27 through Sunday, April 30 at Vidanta Vallarta in Vallarta, Mexico. Jon Rahm won as the prohibitive favorite in its inaugural year on TOUR in 2022, and he is back to defend his title in 2023. Rahm had +280 Mexico Open odds to win at most sportsbooks on Monday morning. Below we will provide a betting guide for the 2023 contest, which will include live Mexico Open at Vidanta odds.
Mexico Open odds
Mexico Open odds have been posted by top US sportsbooks. Jon Rahm, Tony Finau and Wyndham Clark opened as the favorites.
The field for the 2023 Mexico Open at Vidanta will be officially announced on Friday, April 21. Until then, here are the golf odds for John Haslbauer’s projected favorites a month out from the event.
- Jon Rahm +600
- Tony Finau +1000
- Aaron Wise +1600
- Sahith Theegala +1800
- Kurt Kitayama +2000
Vidanta Vallarta Course Trends
Vidanta Vallarta made its debut on the PGA TOUR schedule last year, and while much was speculated in terms of how the course would play, the narrative of it being a bomber’s paradise rang true. Standing over 7,400 yards with expansive fairways, the course played into the hands of the longest hitters in the field in 2022, as evidenced by top-10 finishes from players like Jon Rahm, Tony Finau, Kurt Kitayama, and Cameron Champ. High winds played a factor in keeping scoring in check here, but we should expect a distinct advantage for the longest hitters in the field once again in 2023.
In terms of Course History, the data is limited with only one prior year of results to reference, but the top-5 finishers in 2022 included Jon Rahm, Kurt Kitayama, Brandon Wu, Tony Finau, and Davis Riley. This suggests an advantage for longer hitters and players who have a high Birdie or Better percentage.
The Greg Norman Signature
Norman’s footprint spans predominantly across resort properties, bringing a player-friendly feel that does not require a ton of risk-reward decision making. In the months leading up to this event, Vidanta has made concerted efforts to add some bite to this course and present more of a test to professionals. To do so, they’ve converted two par 5s to long par 4s and transformed from a par 73 to a par 71. They’ve also overhauled and reconstructed the 55 bunkers on property and lengthened the course by about 200 yards.
The course is described as having large landing areas off the tee, but is dotted with numerous bunkers and consistent water hazards in play for approach shots. So, it looks like a bona fide second-shot course where players can freely hit driver off the tee for all par 4s and par 5s.
With no penalty from the rough and wide open fairways, it’s definitely advantage, bombers this week. Particularly those with the longest carry distance, as we expect little rollout on sticky fairways. Long hitters, elite approach players and situationally strong players from out of the sand will make up the ideal profile.
If we take the tournament operators at their word, they believe the course’s length and susceptibility to wind will be its best defense. We’ve seen, however, that courses which rely on distance and the elements have actually not done much to impose PGA TOUR-level talents. That profile fit at Caves Valley, the Plantation Course at Kapalua and TPC Craig Ranch. Each surrendered winning scores of at least -25 this past year. Assuming winds are not significant, I expect a winning score closer to -20 in 2023.
VIDANTA VILLARTA COURSE SPECS
- Yards: 7,456
- Par: 71 (5x 3s / 9x 4s / 4x 5s)
- Greens: Paspalum
- Architect: Greg Norman
- Comp Courses: TPC Craig Ranch, Coco Beach, Corales, Caves Valley, Congaree, Plantation Course at Kapalua, CC of Jackson, Torrey Pines, Kiawah Island
- Hole-by-hole Breakdown:
MEXICO OPEN AT VIDANTA PAST WINNERS
Jon Rahm was the winner of the inaugural event at 5-1 odds last year, but a leaderboard which also featured contenders in Brandon Wu, Alex Smalley, and Patrick Rodgers suggests that longshots have potential to convert at this event in 2023.
The below table tracks consensus pre-tournament outright odds for prior Mexico Open tournaments .
How to bet on the Mexico Open
Golf betting is now legal in over half the states in the US. If the Mexico Open is the first golf event you have ever bet on, you’ve come to the right place to familiarize yourself with the basics of wagering on the sport. This might also be good for veteran golf bettors to brush up on what’s what when it comes to placing a bet on golf.
Some golf betting markets are best for entertainment value, offering hefty odds week-to-week with a very low win percentage, while others are more suitable to slow bankroll building with even lines more akin to what you’ll find across other popular sports. Below is a quick rundown of all the most popular ways you can bet on golf.
Outright winner betting is the most popular way to bet on golf, offering more appealing odds than most any other market or sport. An outright is a bet on who you think will win the golf tournament. With golf tournaments played over four rounds from Thursday through Sunday most weeks, a pre-tournament outright bet is considered to be a future bet.
In golf, the favorite often posts between 8-1 to 12-1 odds, and is rarely the one who goes on to win, with so much parity in the sport currently. There are certain weeks where players with 200-1 odds are popular bets and viable to win, so it’s always worth diversifying exposure across multiple players week-to-week when considering outright betting.
Outright betting is a long game. A full field in a PGA TOUR event can be up to 156 players, so the odds are not in your favor to successfully hit an outright every week. It’s important to remain patient and stick to a weekly, repeatable structure if looking to be profitable betting outrights long term. My personal structure is to bet an 8:1 ratio of units bet to units paid for outright betting. This ensures a breakeven for one outright win every eight weeks, or roughly 6 outright wins over the course of a full season. Each bettor should decide their own preference and risk tolerance, but it is recommended to not structure your outright betting below 6:1 to turn a long term profit.
Select sportsbooks will offer Each Way markets, which duplicate your outright bet and pay out in full if a player finishes in the top 4-7 (depending on the sportsbook and market). Bettors without access to Each Way markets may also consider manually pairing their outright bets with a top-5 bet as a safeguard.
Mexico Open first Round Leader
With so much volatility day-to-day in the Mexico Open, the First Round Leader market is one meant more for entertainment purposes, and is not a reliable market to turn around profits consistently. Given the volatility of what can happen in one round of golf, this market often offers longer odds than outrights, and pays out at the conclusion of the first round.
Round Leader markets are available in R2 and R3 as well.
Placement Bets are my preferred market to bet golf when looking to build a weekly bankroll. In most weeks, you’ll find the favorites at near even odds to finish top-10, and can find the mid-range of the field in the +200 to +400 range to finish top-20. For longshots who are unlikely to contend, but are well-suited for a given course, top-40 bets can also be an appealing market.
Of note, most sportsbooks offer dead heat rules for placement bets. This means if a top-10 bet is placed, and that player finishes T10, tied with three other players, then the originally owed payout will be divided by four. With dead heats common in golf, it is ideal to bet placements on sportsbooks that do not offer dead heat rules, where possible.
Matchups (Individual Round & Full Tournament)
Another popular golf betting market is matchups. Matchups, especially for single rounds, tend to be a high volume bet, and are best placed when a bettor feels both positive about one side and negative about the other side of the matchup.
Personally, I try to avoid betting golf for profit in single-round increments, as I feel the volume of four days is a much wider sample for the better player to prevail. For that reason, I tend to only consider full-tournament matchups, however this is limiting to the total number of matchup options a bettor will have per week.
Beyond standard head to head matchups, there are also three-ball matchups, which offer better odds for players to choose who will finish best from a ground of three.
Golf odds are always dynamic as a tournament plays out, which creates appealing live betting opportunities, whether looking to hedge against a pre-tournament outright, or buy in on a placement bet. When live betting, it can often be useful to reference live strokes gained data to identify players who are strong from tee-to-green and simply not making putts, as putting is a volatile statistically that can more easily be turned around day-to-day. DataGolf is a preferred free resource to monitor live strokes gained data.