This year’s Farmers Insurance Open will take place Wednesday, January 24 through Saturday, January 27 at Torrey Pines in San Diego, California. Max Homa was last year’s winner as he went 13-Under for the tournament. Below we will provide a betting guide for the 2024 tourney, which will include Farmers Insurance odds as soon as they are posted by top sportsbooks.
FARMERS INSURANCE ODDS
Farmers Insurance odds have been posted by top sportsbooks. Xander Schauffele opened as the betting favorite with +900 odds to win the tournament at Torrey Pines.
The field for the 2024 Farmers Insurance Open will be announced soon. Until then, here are the odds for John Haslbauer’s projected favorites a month out from the event.
- Patrick Cantlay +1000
- Justin Thomas +1000
- Xander Schauffele +1200
- Max Homa +1200
- Tony Finau +1400
Get $100
TORREY PINES NORTH & SOUTH COURSE SPECS
- Yards: 7,258 (North), 7,765 (South)
- Par (North & South): 72 (4x 3s / 10x 4s / 4x 5s)
- Greens: Bent (North), Poa (South)
- Rough (North & South): 3.5″ Rye overseed
- Average Green Size: 6,000 sq. ft. (North), 5,000 sq. ft. (South)
- Average Fairway Width: 25.5 yards (North), 27.3 yards (South)
- Architect (North): William Bell (Tom Weiskopf renovation in 2016)
- Architect (South): William Bell (Rees Jones renovation in 2001)
- Historical Cut Line: -2
- Comp Courses: Muirfield Village, Bethpage Black, Quail Hollow, Club De Golf Chapultepec, Bay Hill, Riviera CC, Winged Foot, TPC Harding Park, Olympia Fields, The Ocean Course
introduction to torrey pines
Torrey Pines is one of the most well-known golf venues in the United States, with its North and South courses hosting the Farmers Insurance Open each year. Three of the four rounds will be played on the South Course, the more difficult of the two, which most recently hosted the U.S. Open in 2021.
Torrey Pines is a long, linear golf course which features thick, penal rough and small, firm greens. The course has historically favored the longest drivers in the field, and those who can repeatedly scramble for par in difficult scoring conditions, particularly on Poa greens.
Why The North Course Matters
Scoring on the North Course is significantly easier than on the South, playing as another Par-72, 500 yards shorter. On average, the North Course has played 2-3 strokes easier than the South Course. It’s crucial to post a low number on your round at the North Course. We’ve seen players win or lose this tournament based on that one round.
In 2021, Patrick Reed opened with an 8-under 64 on the North Course. He shot 6-under over his next three rounds on the South Course, and could have won by only shooting 2-under across those three days. In 2019, Justin Rose opened with a 9-under 63 on the North Course and won after shooting a collective 12-under over his next three days on the South Course. In 2018, Jason Day shot an 8-under 64 on the North Course, shot three rounds in the 70s on the South Course, and still won at 10-under par.
Winning scores haven’t exceeded -15 in nine of the last 10 years, so it’s crucial to go low on your round at the North Course. Historically speaking, if you don’t post a round in the 60s on the North Course, you’ve effectively eliminated yourself from winning this tournament. The top-10 players in this field in terms of SG: TOT on the North Course alone are Jon Rahm, Tony Finau, Beau Hossler, Ryan Palmer, Rickie Fowler, Jason Day, Bill Haas, Harris English, Gary Woodland, and Alex Smalley.
Torrey Pines Weather
Since we’re right on the coast of San Diego, weather will be a factor here, primarily on the South Course. Dramatic winds and rain have shifted the dynamic of this event in years past, most notably for Brandt Snedeker‘s win in 2016. He posted a final score of -6 with a round of 69 on Sunday. Sunday’s round was cut short due to unplayable weather and trickled into Monday where storming conditions consisted. Scott Brown was the co-leader going into Sunday and shot 87 to finish in 49th; one of the worst T40 beats of all time to this day.
This year, the San Diego area has experienced heavy rainfall leading in to tournament week. Here is a recent quote from Torrey Pines’ Director of Agronomy:
“We have seen years with precipitation totals much higher than what we are seeing, but it is the frequency and consistency that these storms have hit that has given the property little time to dry down. With a few rain events still projected between now and tournament, I’m expecting the course to play longer and thicker than it already does. Should be fun.”
Assuming these conditions hold, less rollout in the fairways and thicker rough will mean an even steeper challenge to overcome for any players sacrificing distance to the field.
One of the Longest Courses
Torrey Pines is not the most glamorous course on TOUR from an architectural standpoint, as it’s a fairly simplistic and linear design. The identity of the course is its length. Since 2015, the South Course at Torrey Pines has played as the longest course on TOUR, 7,765 yards long. Kiawah Island’s Ocean Course, host of the 2021 PGA Championship, is the only venue to have played longer than the Torrey Pines South Course since 2015. Surprisingly, it hasn’t been a pure bomber’s paradise as evidenced by wins from recent shorter hitters like Patrick Reed, Marc Leishman, and Brandt Snedeker. Despite these exceptions, distance has continued to prove favorable year over year.
Torrey Pines yields one of the highest missed fairway percentages on TOUR with its narrow fairways and steady diet of drivers off the tee. The influence of the weather and small, firm greens have also yielded a lower-than-average Greens In Regulation percentage, which puts an emphasis on class short game and scrambling. The South Course at Torrey Pines has played as the most difficult course for putting. Tricky Poa greens offer a distinct advantage to experienced players on Poa who found success putting at Torrey Pines historically.
FARMERS INSURANCE OPEN ODDS: BETTING TRENDS & COURSE HISTORY
In terms of Course History, Jon Rahm, Rory McIlroy, Ryan Palmer, Tony Finau, and Justin Rose highlight the list of players who have repeatedly played well here, further highlighting the importance of Driving Distance and scoring in difficult, Major-like conditions.
The winning score fell in the range of -9 to -15 in seven of the last 10 years. It only surpassed -20 once (2019) under uncharacteristically difficult conditions. Birdies come at a premium and any players who reach double-digits will find themselves in contention.
The cream tends to rise to the top in this event, as six of the last 10 winners have opened at 25-1 odds or shorter. Despite Luke List’s surprise win at 80-1 odds in 2022, this is an event bettors will want exposure to one of the top tier players in the field at.
| Year | Winner | Pre-Tournament Odds | Winning Score | Field Median Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023 | Max Homa | +2200 | -13 | -6 |
| 2022 | Luke List | +8000 | -15 | -6 |
| 2021 | Patrick Reed | +2500 | -14 | -2 |
| 2020 | Marc Leishman | +5500 | -15 | -4 |
| 2019 | Justin Rose | +1400 | -21 | -7 |
| 2018 | Jason Day | +2200 | -10 | -1 |
| 2017 | Jon Rahm | +5500 | -13 | -4 |
| 2016 | Brandt Snedeker | +1800 | -6 | +4 |
| 2015 | Jason Day | +1300 | -9 | -1 |
| 2014 | Scott Stallings | +25000 | -9 | -1 |
| 2013 | Tiger Woods | +750 | -14 | -2 |