This year’s AT&T Byron Nelson will take place Thursday, May 11 through Sunday, May 14 at TPC Craig Ranch in McKinney, Texas. KH Lee successfully defended his title at this event last year. He has won the AT&T Byron Nelson in each of its first two years played at TPC Craig Ranch, and is expected to be in the field once again in 2023 to chase the three-peat. Below we will provide a betting guide for the 2023 contest, which will include AT&T Byron Nelson odds as soon as they are posted by top sportsbooks.
BYRON NELSON ODDS
AT&T Byron Nelson odds have been posted by top sportsbooks. Scottie Scheffler is the favorite at most books with odds around +500. Jordan Spieth (+850) and Tyrrell Hatton (+1600) are also in the mix.
The field for the 2023 AT&T Byron Nelson will be officially announced on Friday, May 5. Until then, here are the golf odds for John Haslbauer’s projected favorites a month out from the event.
- Jordan Spieth +1000
- Sam Burns +1000
- Tony Finau +1200
- Xander Schauffele +1600
- KH Lee +2500
Introduction to TPC Craig Ranch
TPC Craig Ranch is statistically one of the easiest scoring venues on the PGA TOUR since its debut on the schedule in 2021. Like many other TPC layouts, the course is designed to encourage aggressive play to stockpile birdies, and has a familiar stadium-style set up to comparable courses like TPC Twin Cities and TPC San Antonio. With massive fairways, TPC Craig Ranch is a bona fide second shot course which will reward players who are comfortable going low in easy scoring conditions on Texas Bentgrass greens.
How It Breaks Down
TPC Craig Ranch measures 7,468 yards, but doesn’t play especially long by PGA TOUR standards. As a par 72, it features the standard mix of four par 5s, 10 par 4s, and four par 3s. All four par 5s are reachable in two and yielded an aggregate eagle rate of 12% in 2021. Three out of the four par 5s played over a half stroke under par. Which players take most advantage of these scoring opportunities will decide the week. The course also features a drivable par 4 on the 14th hole and a second sub-400-yard par 4 that plays slightly easier.
This course gets a lot of its length from the par 3s, three of which sit over 215 yards. These par 3s, along with two 490+-yard par 4s, will pose the biggest challenge, putting an emphasis on Proximity from 200+ yards. In 2021, about 40% of approaches came from over 200 yards, a big jump from the TOUR average of about 28%.
Traits And Recent Notable Facts
One year of data colored by record rainfall means we should take some of the course stats with a grain of salt. With that said, TPC Craig Ranch offers arguably the least resistance of any course we will see on TOUR year over year.
Among the 40 courses which hosted TOUR events in 2021, Craig Ranch ranked bottom five in difficulty in ten categories. Those include Scoring Average to Par, Par 4 Scoring, Driving Standard Deviation, SG: ARG & SG: APP Difficultly, 150+ Yard Approach Difficulty, ARG Difficulty, Putting Outside 15 Feet and Penalty Shots Per Round.
Expanding on Driving Standard Deviation, this means players are not laying up off the tee. They instead freely swing the driver on every chance. Sticky Zoysia fairways prevent run-off, and large 40-yard wide fairways yielded a gaudy 72% hit rate in 2021. The rough doesn’t rate as penal, and no real penalty areas loom on tee shots. This course is your quintessential second-shot course. While distance helps, elite skills off the tee will give players far less of an advantage on this course than most.
Players also hit these greens in regulation at an equally high 73% clip. For the 27% of approaches that do miss, players still get some of the more straightforward greenside complexes on TOUR. They should not have much trouble scrambling.
Without any tests across the board, it truly does become a random week that simply comes down to who can generate and convert the most birdie opportunities.
TPC CRAIG RANCH COURSE SPECS
- Yards: 7,468
- Par: 72 (4x 3s / 10x 4s / 4x 5s)
- Grass: Bentgrass Greens, Zoysia Fairways
- Architect: Tom Weiskopf
- Historical Cut Line: -5
- Comp Courses: Vidanta Vallarta, Coco Beach, CC of Jackson, Silverado Resort, TPC Scottsdale, PGA West, Plantation Course at Kapalua, Detroit Golf Club, TPC Twin Cities
- Hole-by-hole Breakdown:
AT&T BYRON NELSON COURSE HISTORY AND BETTING TRENDS
In terms of Course History, KH Lee, Jordan Spieth, Daniel Berger, Scott Stallings, and Xander Schauffele highlight the list of players who have played well here over its first two years hosting the AT&T Byron Nelson, suggesting a strong correlation with other TPC layouts and courses within Texas.
The AT&T Byron Nelson has always been played in easy scoring conditions well before its move to TPC Craig Ranch in 2021. Despite cycling through different Texas courses, longshot winners have been a constant at this event, with seven of the last nine winners opening at 100-1 odds or longer. Anyone with a hot putter is capable of winning at TPC Craig Ranch, so the AT&T Byron Nelson is a great opportunity to take a chance on longshot bets.
The below table tracks consensus pre-tournament outright odds for the last 10 winners of the AT&T Byron Nelson.
How To Bet 2023 AT&T Byron Nelson
Top sportsbooks will post AT&T Byron Nelson odds once the field is finalized. Until then, here are a few basic sports betting approaches.
Does KH Lee have what it takes to 3-peat? The golfer from South Korea won the event in 2022 and 2021 with relatively long odds. After finishing last year’s event with a -26, Lee plays the course well. And if he does play again, where will Lee’s outright winner odds fall? Look at the total field and consider which golfers this course favors the most.
As mentioned above, recent history has shown that underdogs have fared well in winning AT&T Byron Nelson outright.
If you’re indecisive about picking an overall winner, look at the top-10 odds. In this case, as long as the golfer finishes among the top-10 players the bet will pay out. However, the odds might not be as attractive so look for some value with a “+” in front of the odds.
Course conditions and weather might impact performances as well. Consider doing a little research prior to the AT&T Byron Nelson begins.