This year’s 3M Open will take place Thursday, July 25 through Sunday, July 28 at TPC Twin Cities in Blaine, Minnesota. American Lee Hodges picked up his first career win here last year with a 7-stroke victory over Martin Laird, J.T. Poston, and Kevin Steelman. Below we will provide a betting guide for the upcoming contest, which will include 3M Open odds as soon as they are posted by top sportsbooks.
3M OPEN ODDS
3M Open odds will be posted by top sportsbooks soon. Check back in on Monday, July 22 to see 2023 3M Open betting odds.
The field for the 3M Open will be officially announced on Friday, July 19. Until then, here are the golf betting odds for John Haslbauer’s projected favorites.
- Tony Finau +800
- Hideki Matsuyama +1200
- Sungjae Im +1400
- Cam Davis +2000
- Sahith Theegala +2200
TPC Twin Cities
TPC Twin Cities is yet another TPC layout on the PGA TOUR schedule which encourages aggressive play in a stadium-style atmosphere. New to the TOUR in 2019, the 3M Open’s identity is in its persistent water hazards, which have rewarded elite Total Driving, particularly from players with above-average distance. TPC Twin Cities boasts one of the highest penalty stroke percentages on the TOUR, but those who can keep the ball inbounds will be able to attack these straightforward greens complexes for ample birdie opportunities.
In terms of Course History, Tony Finau, Matthew Wolff, Adam Hadwin, Charles Howell III, and Adam Long highlight the list of players who have repeatedly played well here, suggesting an advantage for players who excel in easy scoring conditions, and particularly those who excel in Total Driving.
How It Breaks Down
TPC Twin Cities is a par-71 standing at 7,431 yards, which is slightly above-average in terms of length on the PGA TOUR. The layout includes three par-5s, each sitting between 550-600 yards, four par-3s (each over 175 yards), and 11 par-4s, with a very balanced distribution of hole ranges. There are two par-4s listed as under 400 yards on the official scorecard, however we’ve commonly seen the tee boxes on the 411-yard par-4 16th pushed up to become a driveable par-4 as well. In total, 13 holes have a scoring average under-par; the five holes on property which do not are the four 450+ yard par-4s and the longest par-3on the course, the 228-yard 13th.
While it may lack the historical significance of other finishing holes on TOUR, the par-5 18th is one of my favorites on TOUR. The hole doglegs with water on the right throughout, which is in play on both the tee shot and approach if players want to get aggressive with a 220+ yard approach over water to reach in two. Matthew Wolff won in climactic fashion at the inaugural 2019 3M Open, responding to Bryson DeChambeau’s eagle on 18 with an eagle of his own from just off the fringe. In 2021, Cameron Champ bailed out into the left trees, but scrambled his way to a 5 to claim victory.
Traits And Recent Notable Facts
There are a number of unique characteristics of TPC Twin Cities that make it stand out on the PGA TOUR schedule. The greens are above-average in size, measuring 6,500 square feet on average, which has produced a gaudy 73% of greens in regulation from the field. That’s helped in part due to the 3-inch rough, which has not posed much of an impediment to players who narrowly miss the fairway. Players are also producing above-average driving distance and fairways in regulation at TPC Twin Cities, meaning this is a layout where the best total drivers can thrive, as long as they can mitigate any wayward shots towards the hazards.
Just under 50% of approach shots will come from over 175 yards, a distinct change of pace from the driver-wedge set ups we’ve seen the last two weeks at the Scottish and British Opens. That creates an interesting buy-low opportunity for the top long iron players in this field. The top-10 in Prox: 175+ are Brendan Steele, Cam Davis, Hideki Matsuyama, Lucas Glover, Michael Kim, Hayden Buckley, Tyler Duncan, Lee Hodges, David Lingmerth, and Jared Wolfe.
Cameron Champ’s field day on the greens last year would suggest that these must be easy greens to read, and the data supports that notion as well. In each of its first three years on the PGA TOUR, TPC Twin Cities has ranked in the bottom-3 of putting difficulty. Without much nuance or undulation to these greens, it opens the door for ball strikers who are deficient in putting to still contend. All poor putters are not immune however, as Sergio Garcia still managed to erase his 13.2 strokes gained T2G with 7.3 strokes lost on the greens.
TPC TWIN CITIES COURSE SPECS
- Yards: 7,431
- Par: 71 (4x 3s / 11x 4s / 3x 5s)
- Greens: Bent (Fast)
- Average Green Size: 6,500 sq. ft. (Above-average)
- Average Fairway Width: 35 Yards (Average)
- Rough: 4″ Bluegrass/Fescue (Thick)
- Architect: Arnold Palmer (2018 Renovation from Steve Wenzloff)
- Historic Cut Line: -1
- Comp Courses: TPC Louisiana, PGA National, Detroit Golf Club, Silverado Resort, TPC Deere Run, TPC Summerlin, TPC San Antonio
- Hole-by-hole Breakdown:
3M OPEN PAST WINNERS
When looking through the 3M Open winners over its first four years, it’s clear this is an ideal spot to take a chance on longshot bets. Even despite Tony Finau’s win as the odds on favorite last year, Scott Piercy was poised to make it four straight years of winners at 100-1 odds before his significant weekend collapse. With another weak field expected in 2023 following The Open Championship, 3M Open bettors will want some exposure to a few longshots at this event.
The below table tracks consensus pre-tournament outright odds for all prior winners of the 3M Open.
How To Bet The 3M Open
One of the challenges with betting on this year’s 3M Open is waiting to see which golfers will play. The event takes place a week after The Open Championship – the final major on the TOUR. Picking a favorite with shorter odds, such as 2022 winner Tony Finau might be appealing, but consider the entire field before placing a bet. Looking at the above table, three of the last four winners opened with odds of 125-1 or longer.
Sportsbooks will post a more detailed betting menu the week of the 3M Open. Picking the leader after the first round, top-10 finish, and hole winner are a few props you might see.