The Broncos were a favorite for this season’s most-improved team and many projected them to be a darkhorse playoff contender. However, the absence of key players like Von Miller, Ju’Wan James, and Courtland Sutton effectively ended those talks. Drew Lock battled injury and the Broncos are finding themselves closer to a top-10 draft pick than a playoff spot.
It’s a tough pill to swallow, but it looks like Denver will be trying to get through this year without any more injuries and tackle their holes at the 2021 draft.
We’ll break down the Broncos offseason moves, schedule, and betting odds below. That includes Super Bowl and division odds, and the Broncos chances’ to eclipse their season win total.
Denver Broncos Week 12 odds
The Broncos ended a two-game losing streak with a huge win over Miami, winners of five straight. They get another home game this week as they host New Orleans. Denver opened as +5.5 home underdogs and now sit at .
The Broncos will need another big day from their defensive front to pull off the upset. Denver’s defense harassed Tua Tagovailoa last week with six sacks. On the season, Denver is 13th in PFF’s pass rush grades and 7th in sacks per game (2.8). Taysom Hill gets another start in place of the injured Drew Brees after putting up a huge performance against the Falcons a week ago. His mobility was the star of that game as Hill rushed for two touchdowns. The Broncos will need to keep him contained and stuff designed runs to limit Hill’s effectiveness.
Getting the run game going won’t be an easy task for Melvin Gordon III and the Broncos. New Orleans ranks second in the NFL in rushing yards allowed per game (74.3) and they’ve allowed the least rushing touchdowns to backs in the NFL (three). Gordon found the end zone twice last week (thrice if he didn’t fumble at the one yard line) and carries most of the load for the Broncos defense lately. The Saints also get after the quarterback, so protecting Drew Lock will be instrumental in this one.
See how the Broncos rank in this week’s Power Rankings
Broncos futures odds
Broncos Super Bowl odds
The Broncos’ odds to win Super Bowl LV sit at +50000. They are considered longshots and there are better ways to bet on the Broncos this season.
AFC West odds
The Broncos are tied with the Chargers for the bottom of the division in terms of odds. They slump to a year-low +50000 and should not be in consideration.
Denver Broncos 2020 schedule and betting odds
| Week | Date (Time) | Opponent | Opening Spread (DraftKings) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Monday, Sep. 14 (10:10 p.m. ET) | vs. Tennessee | Broncos -1.5 |
| 2 | Sunday, Sep. 20 (1 p.m. ET) | at Pittsburgh | Steelers -4.5 |
| 3 | Sunday, Sep. 27 (4:25 p.m. ET) | vs. Tampa Bay | Buccaneers -1.5 |
| 4 | Thursday, Oct. 1 (8:20 p.m. ET) | vs. NY Jets | Broncos -1 |
| 5 | Sunday, Oct. 11 (1 p.m. ET) | at New England | Patriots -5 |
| 6 | Sunday, Oct. 18 (4:05 p.m. ET) | vs. Miami | Broncos -5.5 |
| 7 | Sunday, Oct. 25 (4:25 p.m. ET) | vs. Kansas City | Chiefs -4.5 |
| 8 | BYE | ||
| 9 | Sunday, Nov. 8 (1 p.m. ET) | at Atlanta | Falcons -3 |
| 10 | Sunday, Nov. 15 (4:05 p.m. ET) | at Las Vegas | Raiders -2 |
| 11 | Sunday, Nov. 22 (4:05 p.m. ET) | vs. LA Chargers | Broncos -2.5 |
| 12 | Sunday, Nov. 29 (4:05 p.m. ET) | vs. New Orleans | Saints -3.5 |
| 13 | Sunday, Dec. 6 (8:20 p.m. ET) | at Kansas City | Chiefs -10.5 |
| 14 | Sunday, Dec. 13 (1 p.m. ET) | at Carolina | Broncos -1.5 |
| 15 | Sunday, Dec. 20 (TBA) | vs. Buffalo | Broncos -1 |
| 16 | Sunday, Dec. 27 (TBA) | at LA Chargers | Chargers -2.5 |
| 17 | Sunday, Jan. 3 (4:25 p.m. ET) | vs. Las Vegas | TBD |
How to bet on the Broncos
Futures
Futures are long term betting odds on events that happen in the future. Super Bowl champion, league MVP, Rookie of the Year, and a team’s season win total are some examples.
Oddsmakers adjust those future odds during the course of a season after initially put them out well before the start of the season to generate interest and handle. Odds can vary greatly at different operators like FanDuel Sportsbook or DraftKings Sportsbook, for example, and can be influenced by not only money wagered, but by sharp house players which forces the sportsook to adjust the odds.
The Broncos’ Super Bowl odds discrepancy at FanDuel (+6000 or 60-1) vs. DraftKings (+4000 or 40-1) is an example and can offer a significant difference in payback. A $100 bet on the Broncos at FanDuel would return a profit of $6,000 but just $4,000 if you bet at DraftKings. Bettors have to often be willing to tie their money up for longer periods of time on futures bets and realize additional risks like injuries that impact results and futures odds.
Moneyline
Pick the team to win the game and you bet the moneyline. The favorite has a minus (-200) in front of the number indicating the amount you need to wager to win $100. The underdog has a plus (+160) in front of the number indicating the amount you would win on a $100 bet. Not all three-point favorites, for example, have the same moneyline odds. Moneyline odds can vary depending on the amount wagered, a point spread move that changes the moneyline, and factors closer to kickoff like weather, injuries, and even bookmaker liability on a certain team.
Point spread
The point spread is made by the oddsmaker in expectation of the margin of victory. If the Broncos are a 4.5-point underdog and you bet them on the point spread, you win your bet if the Broncos win the game or lose by four points or less. Conversely, if the Broncos are a 4.5-point favorite, you win your bet only if the Broncos win by at least five points. A Broncos loss or defeat by four points or less is a lost wager. Any wager that lands on the point spread, for example a 27-24 score with a 3-point spread, results in a push and refund of the bet.
Point spreads often have odds of -110, so a $110 bet pays back $100 on a winner, or $11 wins $10. However, oddsmakers add higher vigorish to some point spreads, where you might see a 3-point favorite (-120). So you would have to wager $120 to win $100 and your team would have to win by more than three points to win your wager.
Total (over/under)
As scoring has increased in recent years, bettors still prefer to bet on higher scoring games. That’s especially true on isolated prime time games like Monday Night Football. Betting the game total of a NFL games is called an over/under bet. The oddsmakers set game totals and also halftime and first-half totals. These game totals can fluctuate during the week based on a number of factors, including team and player news, weather, and money wagered on either the over or under.
Prop bets
Props or proposition bets are bets that generally don’t directly affect the outcome of the game. These can be team or player props like over/under rushing or receiving yards, or passing yards by a quarterback.
Leading sportsbooks like FanDuel and DraftKings offer more creative options as they have more volume and handle and a way to generate more bets and keep a higher hold for the house is to offer props. Following the NFL Draft, you’ll see many quarterback over/under passing yards for the season offered, along with MVP, Rookie of the Year and additional types of player props to generate a buzz for the sportsbooks along with bets. Top rookie draft picks have player props tied to them right after the draft as well, like Broncos wide receiver Jerry Jeudy, whose receiving yards over/under prop opened at 824.5 yards.
Teasers
A bettor may not be willing to bet if he can’t take +3 on the underdog. Sometimes books hold the spread at 2.5 points and off the key number.
So an option is to ‘tease’ or ‘buy’ points and move the point spread. In the NFL, this is 6 (-120), 6.5 (-130) or 7 points (-140). The odds can be slightly higher at some sportsbooks, but you must have at least two bets in your teaser. So if the Broncos were a +2 point underdog and you were not quite confident enough to bet them without taking 3-points or more, then you can move the line 6-points for example and tease the Broncos to +8. You would need to add another leg to your teaser and bet another team with a 6-point move either up on the underdog or down on the favorite. Both bets must win for you to win your teaser bet. You can teaser more than two teams and get a higher return, for example a 3-team 6-point teaser would have odds of +180.
In-play betting
Also called in-game wagering, this has become the most popular way to bet on games and allows bettors to have action throughout the contest. Sharp bettors who understand not only math, but can factor odds quickly and understand the variances in a game like field position, time remaining and clock management, have a better chance to beat the bookmaker and win more bets.
The oddsmaker continuously adjusts the odds ‘in-game’, and this type of wagering requires more learned skills and understanding, but can also be fun to learn while risking less money as you make bets throughout a contest.
Broncos 2019 recap
Record: 7-9
ATS: 9-7
Denver’s start to the 2019 season was a disaster. Four straight losses including a pair of excruciating last-second losses sent the Broncos behind the 8 ball for the rest of the season. Denver failed to score more than 20 points in seven of their first eight games and the writing was on the wall for QB Joe Flacco.
The Broncos finished 7-9 SU and 9-7 ATS to push on their over/under season win total. They also went 7-9 Over/Under on totals. Denver went 3-3 within the division but two lopsided losses to the Chiefs showed the struggles of Denver’s offense losing 30-6 at home and 23-3 late in the season at Kansas City in the Broncos only loss with Drew Lock as the starting quarterback.
But the Denver defense improved under defensive mastermind Vic Fangio, and the Broncos only allowed one opponent to score more than 24 points in their last nine games. For the season, the Broncos scoring defense finished top-10 allowing 19.8 points per game and top-12 allowing 337 yards per game.
Broncos 2020 offseason moves
Key trades: Seventh-round draft pick (2020) to TEN for DE Jurrell Casey; Fourth-round draft pick (2020) to JAX for CB A.J. Bouye
Key re-signings: LB Joe Jones; DE Shelby Harris
Key free-agent losses: CB Chris Harris, Jr., (to LAC), C Connor McGovern (to NYJ), DE Derek Wolf (to BAL)
Key free-agent signings: RB Melvin Gordon (Chargers), G Graham Glasgow (Lions), P Sam Martin (Lions), QB Jeff Driskel (Lions)
The Broncos bolstered their defense and front seven with the addition of five-time Pro Bowl DE Jurrell Casey. Losing CB Chris Harris to division rival LA Chargers hurts, as does the departure of C Connor McGovern. But Denver also adds CB A.J. Brown and still has Bradley Chubb in the fold.