In Year 2, Dave Aranda led the Baylor Bears over the Oklahoma State Cowboys for the Big 12 championship. It was the first time since 1998 that neither the Oklahoma Sooners nor the Texas Longhorns appeared in the game (when it was Texas A&M vs. Kansas State). Can Baylor reload and compete for another championship? How will new-look Oklahoma fare as their time in the conference dwindles? Below, we’ll look at Big 12 odds and conference analysis for the 2022 college football season complete with team previews, power rankings, and more.
Big 12 football odds 2022
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2022 Big 12 outlook and projections
Texas Longhorns ()
Win total:
Not many teams in the country have the level of roster talent that Texas has this coming season. They return Big 12 Freshman of the Year Xavier Worthy out wide and superstar running back Bijan Robinson. Via the portal, they added Quinn Ewers– who originally committed to them in high school– and Wyoming field stretcher Isaiah Neyor, who promises to be one of the biggest lands in the portal. On the offensive line, Texas has real questions, but they recruited the top OL class of 2022. Of course, it all comes down to the major IF they can put it all together, but the Longhorns have the potential to win a lot of games this year.
Oklahoma Sooners ()
Win total:
At the epicenter the wildest coaching carousel in college football history is the Oklahoma Sooners. In comes Brent Venables– a longtime Oklahoma DC– as head coach, Ole Miss OC Jeff Lebby, and a pair of Venables assistants from Clemson as co-DCs. The Sooners replaced major vacancies from the transfer portal with the transfer portal, specifically UCF QB Dillon Gabriel, who is coming off a broken collarbone from last year. Gabriel, however, was one of the most productive passers in the nation in Orlando, throwing for over 8,000 yards in 26 games.
Oklahoma State Cowboys ()
Win total:
The historically uncharacteristic defense of the 2021 Oklahoma State Cowboys is long, long gone. DC Jim Knowels departed for Ohio State and two defensive All Americans left for the NFL. In place of Knowels, Oklahoma State hired a proven and tenured coach, Derek Mason, to head the defense. However, the Mike Gundy and the Pokes are never quite down and out; since 2008, they’ve won at least eight games every year but twice. The biggest wild card on this team is quarterback Spencer Sanders, who ambled and lucked his way into more than one win a season ago (see: Bedlam).
Baylor Bears ()
Win total:
In his second year coaching, Dave Aranda turned Baylor from a two-win program into a 12-win conference champion. While a lot of the staple players departed the team for the NFL, the accomplishment falls on the coaching staff, who mostly stays intact. Big 12 Championship hero Blake Shapen will start at quarterback this coming season, but the Bears return just 47% of their production. The road tilt is tough this year, with Baylor traveling to BYU, Oklahoma, and Texas.
Iowa State Cyclones ()
Win total:
No Power Five team returns less production than Iowa State does this coming season (37%). They’re positioned to rebuild from losing a four-year starter at QB and a 1,500-yard rusher in Breece Hall. They kick off 2022 with an FCS opponent (SEMO State), but the new team gets thrown straight to the fire with a trip to Iowa in Week 2. To stack things against the Cyclones further, they came up 2.5 wins short of expectations last season and tumbled from a high preseason ranking. The lone player of note returning is All American Will McDonald on the defensive line.
TCU Horned Frogs ()
Win total:
A tumultuous year led to longtime head coach Gary Patterson parting ways with TCU and SMU head coach Sonny Dykes moving offices 45 minutes west. With the coaching turnover came a huge number of transfers and decomittments in the recruiting cycle. The Horned Frogs hit the portal hard, landing 247Sports’ 12th-ranked transfer class, but also return 80% of last year’s production. The concern is the loss of their two biggest playmakers, running back Zach Evans (Ole Miss) and pass rusher Ochaun Mathis (Nebraska). Their defensive front was bullied weekly, so TCU hired Tulsa’s Joseph Gillespie to spearhead the defense.
Kansas State Wildcats ()
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Kansas State is poised to be a possibly-frisky team in 2022, returning star Deuce Vaughn II and landing Nebraska QB Adrian Martinez in the transfer portal. Martinez is a largely-scrutinized quarterback after leading all FBS players in turnovers over the last four years (31 fumbles!), but he gets a fresh start in a quieter corner of the college football world. Under new OC Colin Klein (not-so-far removed star Wildcat), Martinez gets much more stability and much less noise than he did in Lincoln.
West Virginia Mountaineers ()
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West Virginia reunited a pair from years ago at USC: QB J.T. Daniels and OC Graham Harrell. While the two resulted in a very average pairing in L.A., the continuity is fairly important in the early season. Just 44% of WVU’s production returns (second-least in Power Five), but turnover was necessary to get the Mountaineers over a six-win hump they’ve encountered in the past three seasons. Most exciting for WVU this year is the revival of the Backyard Brawl– a nasty rivalry with Pitt set to kickoff in Week 1.
Texas Tech Red Raiders ()
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Texas Tech has set the stage to be one of the more interesting and chaotic teams in 2022. In comes Zach Kittley (Western Kentucky) at OC, and Tim DeRuyter (Oregon) as DC. Everywhere Kittley’s landed, since his days at Houston Baptist, he’s turned teams into ultra-productive air raid offenses that score a million points; expect Tech to return to the air raid this season. Also interesting is their schedule, where they land before or after major schedule staples for their opponents every single week. Lubbock at night is a prime place for good teams to stumble, and they handle both Texas and Oklahoma at home.
Kansas Jayhawks ()
Win total:
Kansas is a program that’s unserious about winning football games. Since 2008, they’ve never won more than a single Big 12 game and have gone winless in the conference five times. They do return 82% of production and are one of 21 teams to bring back a head coach, both coordinators, and their quarterback, but expectations for Kansas are set. We know exactly what they are.
Players to watch
Dillon Gabriel, QB, Oklahoma: Gabriel– a prolific passer at UCF– transferred to Oklahoma after having his 2021 cut short with a broken collarbone. He reunites with offensive coordinator Jeff Leby, who was brought on by Brent Venables from Ole Miss. Leby helped aid Matt Corral to a Heisman-contending season and will likely do the same with Gabriel.
Bijan Robinson, RB, Texas: Robinson was the nation’s most explosive running back a season ago. He led the position groups in Heisman odds for most of the season, rushing for over 1,100 yards and 15 total touchdowns. He had a stretch of five consecutive games posting at least 125 yards which included a 217-yard outing against TCU.
Xavier Worthy, WR, Texas: Worthy is a frontrunner for the Biletnikoff Award this coming season after an outstanding true freshman season. Despite shoddy quarterback play, Worthy found the end zone 12 times and nearly hit 1,000 yards. He is joined by former number-one recruit Quinn Ewers and Wyoming receiver transfer Isaiah Neyor.
J.T. Daniels, QB, West Virginia: Third time’s the charm for J.T. Daniels, who quietly exercised his grad transfer to move from Georgia to West Virginia. The Mountaineers hired Graham Harrell as offensive coordinator, Daniels’ offensive coordinator at USC. Durability has been a major issue for Daniels, who hasn’t played a full season since his freshman year.
Big 12 Power Rankings
1. Texas: It’s key to understand the difference between Power Rankings and predictions. Texas is the most talented team in the Big 12 this preseason. Whether or not it pans out into a Big 12-winning season remains to be seen, but Texas has the firepower to beat any conference foe.
2. Oklahoma: To see this team come together early in the year will be important, but Oklahoma has some of the best roster talent in the conference. The combination of Jeff Lebby and Dillon Gabriel is something we’ve seen before at UCF and that turned into a perennial 4,000-yard passer.
3. Baylor: Don’t underestimate the power of a coaching staff to develop their players. Regardless of what Baylor lost, they return a feisty young quarterback and a solid group of talent. Arranda can turn that into wins, as he demonstrated last year.
4. Oklahoma State: The Pokes lose a lot on defense, which is what build their 12-win season last year. However, it’s undeniable the consistent success of Oklahoma State, who should win another eight games thanks to the Big 12’s lightest schedule per FPI.
5. Kansas State: By default Kansas State lands at five. Why not TCU? The 80% returning production is more concerning than exciting– that team was bad last year. Kansas State rises to the top of a next tier that’s very uninspiring.
Big 12 results 2021
| Team | Conference Record |
|---|---|
| Oklahoma State | 8-1 |
| Baylor | 7-2 |
| Oklahoma | 7-2 |
| Iowa State | 5-4 |
| Kansas State | 4-5 |
| West Virginia | 4-5 |
| Texas | 3-6 |
| TCU | 3-6 |
| Texas Tech | 3-6 |
| Kansas | 1-8 |
Past conference champions
| Year | Winner | Record |
|---|---|---|
| 2010 | Oklahoma | 12-2 |
| 2011 | Oklahoma State | 12-1 |
| 2012 | Oklahoma/Kansas State | 11-2/11-2 |
| 2013 | Baylor | 11-2 |
| 2014 | TCU/Baylor | 12-1/11-2 |
| 2015 | Oklahoma | 11-2 |
| 2016 | Oklahoma | 11-2 |
| 2017 | Oklahoma* | 12-2 |
| 2018 | Oklahoma* | 12-2 |
| 2019 | Oklahoma* | 12-2 |
| 2020 | Oklahoma | 8-2 |
*Indicates College Football Playoff selection
How to bet on conference winners
Be sure to shop around before diving headlong into the first bet you see. Different outlets offer different odds and a minute or two of your time could result in some more money coming your way. Just because DraftKings Sportsbook offers Oklahoma State +700 to win the Big 12 Conference doesn’t mean BetMGM doesn’t offer the same price. They may price their prop at +800– increasing your potential earnings. Here at TheLines we pull all the odds for you to ensure you’re getting the best price.
When betting college football conference futures, there’s several specific factors to take into account, including:
- Star quarterbacks
- Returning production
- OL depth/cohesiveness
- Coaching prowess
Sift through what factors do and do not matter as much to craft an accurate view of each team. A lot of emphasis is put on recruiting classes, but the 2021-22 cycle likely won’t see the field for another year or two. Know which classes to look at and whether or not each team is good at developing talent. Teams like Iowa State and Baylor excel at developing talent whereas Texas consistently underperforms despite signing top classes.
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