The 2023 season for the Big 12 will be the one of a kind. In come four new members – BYU, Cincinnati, Houston, and UCF – and next offseason, Oklahoma and Texas depart. TCU is coming off a historic season predicted by nobody in which they were national runners-up. Defending conference champion Kansas State mirrors the path taken last year by Baylor. Below, we’ll look at Big 12 odds for the 2023 college football season complete with team previews, power rankings, and more.
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Big 12 football odds 2023
To place a bet on Big 12 futures, click on the odds in the table below:
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2023 Big 12 Power Rankings
- Texas Longhorns ()
- Oklahoma Sooners ()
- TCU Horned Frogs ()
- Kansas State Wildcats ()
- Texas Tech Red Raiders ()
- Oklahoma State Cowboys ()
- Baylor Bears ()
- UCF Knights ()
- Cincinnati Bearcats ()
- Houston Cougars ()
- Iowa State Cyclones ()
- West Virginia Mountaineers ()
- Kansas Jayhawks ()
- BYU Cougars ()
Welcome, New Members
Four new teams join the ranks of the Big 12 in 2023 – BYU, Cincinnati, Houston, and UCF. Of the group, sportsbooks view UCF as the most serious of the Big 12 title contenders at 25-1 with the other three being 60-1 or longer longshots. Cincinnati lost their successful coaching staff to Wisconsin, making them a wild card just two years after making the College Football Playoff. BYU is the lowest rated team of the group, per our aggregate power ratings, and Houston is the longest shot to win the conference at 200-1.
While the week-to-week lines shouldn’t be mispriced, consider conference futures. The last time we saw movement of this scale was 2011 with the Big East and WAC dissolving.
The Big 12 has extremely low variance in team power rating (second-lowest behind the MAC). That means the floor of this conference isn’t too far off the top of the conference, which creates a lot of parity. For season-long win totals, keep that in mind. More tossups mean more opportunities to bet under win totals.
A Parting Gift?
This is the last season which Oklahoma and Texas are a part of the Big 12. In our aggregate power ratings and on conference odds boards, these two teams stand a tier above the rest. Could either one take home the Big 12 title before bolting for the SEC?
No one outside of Austin, Texas, or Stillwater, Oklahoma, would have predicted a six-win Oklahoma in 2022. Yes, there was high turnover and a tumultuous offseason, but high-profile programs like OU often withstand turnover. Not the case for the 2022 Sooners.
Brent Venables comes into Year 2 with a dire need to fix the defense. Last year, the Sooners finished 74th in points per drive but realistically were much worse than that, emphasized in a 49-0 drubbing against Texas. The biggest issue was that Oklahoma just didn’t have the talent to field a good defense. Heading into 2023, that may be the case again. They added seven offensive and defensive linemen in the transfer portal, a transfer class that ranks eighth at 247Sports.
Offensively, Dillon Gabriel returns after an underwhelming first season in Norman. Offensive coordinator Jeff Lebby brought high expectations for he and Gabriel, which they hope to hit this year. However, they’ll need to find new receivers and running backs to hit that ceiling; Oklahoma is 79th in returning production on offense (62%).
Luckily for the Sooners, they play the second-easiest schedule in the Big 12 (per SP+ ratings, 52nd nationally).
On paper, almost no team nationally looks more imposing than Texas. They rank ninth in the SP+ and fifth in FPI thanks to an offense of collegiate all-stars. Quinn Ewers takes the helm as the Week 1 starter over Arch Manning. While Bijan Robinson is off to the NFL, Texas’ running back room is in good hands with names like Jonathan Brooks and Jaydon Blue. Georgia transfer AD Mitchell makes one of the top receiving rooms in the country even scarier, joining Xavier Worthy, Jordan Whittington, and Isaiah Neyor.
Up front, the Longhorns are made up of four- and five-star prospects, most notably Kelvin Banks. Defensively, they return 63% of their production and linebacker Jaylan Ford could be an all-conference candidate. We really could do this all day – Texas is loaded. At least, on paper.
If we’ve learned anything about the Longhorns it’s that expectations will seriously hold this team down. They’ll lose games at Texas Tech inexplicably two weeks after almost beating Alabama. They’ll beat Big 12 Champion Kansas State and blast Oklahoma 49-0 just to lose to a very injured Oklahoma State in October.
So while their talent may not translate to 13-0, you can bet they’ll be favored in almost all of their games. We’ll get a pretty good idea of where this team stands Week 2 at Alabama.
And Then There’s Everyone Else…
…And I don’t mean that in an insulting way. As mentioned, the Big 12 has the second-most parity in terms of power rating variance. Each year, two or three new teams pop up as serious contenders, exaggerated this year by both TCU and Kansas State playing for the title, with 12-0 CFP-bound TCU losing that game, of course.
Kansas State must replace a lot defensively (return 52% of production, 94th), but do bring back emerging QB Will Howard. The Wildcats are extremely well-coached, something that’s not changing this year. But we saw this with Baylor between 2021 and 2022; return the QB and coaches after a Big 12 Championship and just not get the job done again.
TCU of course is coming off an impossible run that resulted in them being the national runners-up (we won’t talk about the game) and turning their Week 1 backup QB into the Heisman runner-up. The overwhelming majority of this team is gone – their 52% overall returning production is 112th nationally. Could TCU be a flash in the pan? To the scale in which they were this past year, almost certainly. But coach Sonny Dykes proved to be cunning.
The Horned Frogs bring in offensive coordinator Kendall Briles from Arkansas, much to the chagrin of the fanbase. How much of a step back this team takes is a question, but them taking a step back is not.
The Kansas Jayhawks run it back with almost everybody from last year’s team. The return 91% of offensive production (the most nationally) and 85% of their total roster production, second-most nationally. Jalon Daniels and Jason Bean both return at QB and the coaching staff remains in tact. If anyone’s bound to repeat an outlier season, it’s Kansas.
Oklahoma State sits in a precarious position. Recruiting took a nosedive this year (reportedly from an unwillingness to embrace NIL) and transfers exited en mass. The Pokes were unable to land many high-profile transfers and will have to settle for journeyman Alan Bowman at quarterback. Though Mike Gundy produces consistent contenders – winning fewer than eight games just three times since 2008 – the feeling around the program is bleak. This could be a team that implodes, and implodes fast.
Players to watch
WR AD Mitchell: Of the dozens of choices from Texas’ roster, Mitchell might make the biggest splash. He was extremely involved in their Orange and White Scrimmage this spring after transferring in from Georgia. Of the group, Mitchell appears to be the best NFL prospect, even over star Xavier Worthy. At 6-foot-4, he’ll be the red zone target and go-to on critical downs while Worthy takes the top off the defense.
QB Chandler Morris: Not because he’ll be the superstar Max Duggan was last year, but because his turnout dictates what TCU will be. An average showing like in 2021 and the Frogs are looking at 6-6. Frequent playmaking could turn that into 9-3. Without a real serious cast of skill players to crutch on (they return just 33% of offensive production, fourth-fewest nationally), Morris steers the ship for Briles’ offense.
DB Jacobee Bryant: On a Kansas defense that allowed a 50% conversion rate on third down and the fifth-most points per drive last year, Bryant was a lone bright spot. He earned All-Big 12 honors after defending nine passes, picking three off, and returning an interception for a touchdown. He lines up at corner and box safety and is a versatile athlete that should be exciting to watch.
Big 12 results 2022
Past conference champions
*Indicates College Football Playoff selection
How to bet on conference winners
Be sure to shop around before diving headlong into the first bet you see. Different outlets offer different odds and a minute or two of your time could result in some more money coming your way. Just because DraftKings Sportsbook offers Kansas State +500 to win the Big 12 Conference doesn’t mean BetMGM doesn’t offer the same price. They may price their prop at +650– increasing your potential earnings. Here at TheLines we pull all the odds for you to ensure you’re getting the best price.
When betting college football conference futures, there’s several specific factors to take into account, including:
- Star quarterbacks
- Returning production
- OL depth/cohesiveness
- Coaching prowess
Sift through what factors do and do not matter as much to craft an accurate view of each team. A lot of emphasis is put on recruiting classes, but the 2023 cycle likely won’t see the field for another year or two. Know which classes to look at and whether or not each team is good at developing talent. Teams like Iowa State and Baylor excel at developing talent whereas Texas consistently underperforms despite signing top classes.
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