The Bears’ bluff has been called and the wheels have completely fallen off in Chicago. A 5-1 start to the season had everyone’s attention, but you couldn’t help but be wary of their record. Folk hero Nick Foles doesn’t seem to be the answer and only provides a slight improvement over the quarterback he replaced, Mitch Trubisky. The defense has been stout as ever, led by Kyle Fuller and Khalil Mack, but the offense is a mess at best.
Matt Nagy often outsmarts himself and his usage of personnel and seemingly-random play calls have fans calling for his seat. It wasn’t a kind third quarter of the season for the Bears, and they’ve come crashing back down to Earth.
Below is a comprehensive guide to betting the Chicago Bears in 2020, complete with live table odds and weekly analysis.
Chicago Bears Week 12 odds
The Bears are coming off a much needed bye week and visit their division-rival Packers. Chicago opened as +7.5 road underdogs and now sit at .
Allen Robinson has seen a decline in his targets over the past four games, averaging 7.3 after averaging 11 targets in the Bears’ first six games. Through their first six, Chicago went 5-1 and are now on a four-game skid, directly correlating with Robinson’s production. This game, Robinson sees Jaire Alexander, who is expected to return for Green Bay. The Bears’ line will have to keep Nick Foles in a clean pocket against Za’Darius Smith– one of the league’s best pass rushers.
On the other side, Chicago’s secondary will have their hands full with a pair of all-too-familiar teammates: Aaron Rodgers and Davante Adams. Adams has been lighting the league on fire, averaging 105.6 receiving yards per game this year (first); he’s also on a 16-game pace for 136 receptions and 20 touchdowns. It’ll take everything Kyle Fuller’s got to keep Adams and the Packers’ passing game in check.
Bears futures odds
Bears Super Bowl odds
After starting the season 5-1, the Bears have now lost four straight. Their Super Bowl odds have leveled out to +15000 because of it.
NFC North odds
At one point this year, Chicago was in contention to win the NFC North– they even stood atop the standings for a moment. However, a few in-division losses have brought the Bears’ odds down to +1600 to win the division.
How to bet on the Bears
Sports betting is now legal in Illinois so Bears fans in that state will now be able to bet on the home team. Before heading to the sportsbooks (yes, you should have more than one and be ready to shop around for the best value) make sure you’re familiar with these terms and how the odds work to get the most out of your bets.
The first stop of beginner and experienced bettors alike, moneylines are set with a favorite and an underdog depending on who’s expected to win the game. Odds typically range from -200 to +200 but they can extend in either direction based on the on-field matchup and location of a game.
The Bears may be favored at -200 in a mid-season home game against the rival Lions with a $10 bet returning a profit of $5 with victory in regulation or overtime. If the Lions were to pull off the upset at +200, a bet on the visitors would return a profit of $20. The rare NFL tie would result in a push on a regular two-way line with all bets on either team being refunded in full.
Should the Lions be without QB Matthew Stafford or other star players, the Bears may be more heavily favored at a line of -450 and the same $10 bet would return a profit of just $2.22 with a win for Chicago. This is often referred to as a chalk play and is best avoided with such a small profit margin.
In the above scenario of a heavy favorite on the moneyline, it’s a much wiser betting strategy to pass and bet the Bears against the spread rather than to simply beat the Lions outright. The most common spreads are set at 2.5, 3.5, 6.5 or 7.5 points to represent winning margins of either a field goal or a touchdown. Spreads of +/-0.5 or +/-1 represent a pick’em, and the moneyline may be the more profitable play for either side. For instance, the Bears are Week 1 underdogs at Detroit with a +1.5 spread.
Spreads odds are set much more conservatively than they are on the moneyline. The odds will typically range from -120 to +120 ($8.33 or $12 profit on a $10 bet) and lower the risk of betting a favorite while decreasing the potential profit margin of an underdog. Spreads almost always contain the half-point hook, but public betting action can level out at a line at an integer number.
Also known as the Over/Under, total lines ask for how many points the two teams will combine to score with lines generally ranging from the mid-30s to high 50s based on the most common scores. The more appealing the offensive matchup, the higher the total is likely to be. Elite quarterbacks, defensive injuries or a primetime spotlight can also inflate total lines with viewers expecting an offensive explosion.
Odds are usually equal on either side at -110 or -105 with a $10 bet returning a profit of $9.09 or $9.52, respectively. Like with spreads, lines can close at an integer number and result in a push should the final score equal the projected line.
Team totals work hand-in-hand with spreads to specify how many points either team will score. If the Bears are favored at -3.5 over the Lions with a total of 43.5, the Bears’ team total would be 23.5, with the Lions’ line set at 20 or 20.5.
Moneylines, spreads, and totals are available for an entire game, each half, or for individual quarters. Sportsbooks can also offer an abundance of alternate lines for both spreads and totals with more profitable odds or a safer projection.
Single-game props are most commonly seen in the form of an Over/Under for a statistical projection. Sportsbooks will set a line for how many yards, touchdowns, turnovers, etc. a team or specified star players will record in a game. Yes/No wagers exist for whether certain players will score a touchdown in a game. Prop odds are generally contained within a range from -130 to +130.
More profitable props will include larger pools of possibilities such as which player will score the first touchdown or which quarter will be the highest scoring. Props are most often associated with the Super Bowl, which can include novelty props such as the color of the Gatorade being dumped on the winning head coach or the length of the national anthem.
There are also regular season player props available until the start os the 2020 season. See below for example props for WR Allen Robinson.
Futures bets can be a form of season-long prop asking for how many yards or touchdowns certain players will produce in a season. Futures also look at the end-of-year awards, team win totals, odds of winning a division or conference, or the Super Bowl.
The more options available, the wider the range of odds. MVP contenders can see odds ranging from +100 (even money) to as high as +50000 (500-1). Super Bowl odds can start as low as +200 or +300 and extend to +15000 for a projected last-place team.
Odds can be released immediately upon the conclusion of the prior Super Bowl and will be updated throughout the offseason, regular season and playoffs. Everything from free agency, the NFL draft, trades, injuries, and standings can impact odds for team and player futures, alike.
A form of parlay bet whereby bettors can alter spread or total lines for higher, more lucrative odds, or “buy” points to get a safer line while getting lower, less profitable odds. Don’t trust the Bears to cover a spread of -7.5 and beat the Lions by 8 or more points? Tease the line down to -3.5 so all they need to do is win by 4 or more points.
Get action on a game after kickoff with continuously-adjusting lines depending on the score, present game flow, or in-game injuries. The popularization of mobile betting allows even fans in attendance of a game to place a wager on the Over immediately after the opening kick is returned for a touchdown.
Keep close tabs on how the game’s developing and back the losing team at an inflated moneyline number if they were hurt by unlikely turnovers in the first half.
2019 Bears season in review
The Bears went from first in the division in 2018 to third in 2019 while winning four fewer games and finishing at .500 for the first time since 2013. They were one of the league’s least profitable teams to bet, finishing a league-worst 4-12 against the spread while losing by 1.1 points per game and failing to cover by 2.6 PPG. They were 3-5 ATS at home at Soldier Field.
Chicago also went just 6-10 against the Over/Under, falling an average of 4.3 PPG shy of the projected point total. The defense gets a large share of the credit after allowing just 18.6 PPG to rank fourth in the NFL but the 17.5 PPG posted by the offense ranked fourth-worst in the league. Star LB Khalil Mack’s 8.4 sacks in 16 games were his fewest since his rookie season with the Oakland Raiders.
Trubisky completed just 63.2 percent of his passes for 3,138 yards and 17 touchdowns against 10 interceptions over 15 games in his third year in the league. Rookie RB David Montgomery emerged as the season went on and finished his debut campaign with 889 rushing yards, 185 receiving yards, and seven total touchdowns. WR Allen Robinson enjoyed a strong season with 1,147 receiving yards and seven touchdowns, but no other player recorded more than Anthony Miller’s 656 yards.
Bears 2020 off-season moves
Key trades: Acquired QB Nick Foles from the Jacksonville Jaguars in exchange for a compensatory fourth-round pick (No. 140) in the 2020 NFL Draft.
Key re-signings: LB Danny Trevathan (three-year, $24 million extension), S Deon Bush (one year, $1.4 million), DB Eddie Jackson (four-year, $58.4 million extension), LB Devante Bond (one year, $825,000), S DeAndre Houston-Carson (one year, $1 million)
Key free agent losses: LB Leonard Floyd (released, signed with LAR), S HaHa Clinton-Dix (to DAL), DB Prince Amukamara (released), WR Taylor Gabriel (released), DT Nick Williams (to DET)
Key free agent signings: TE Jimmy Graham (two years, $16 million), DE Robert Quinn (five years, $70 million), LB Barkevious Mingo (one year, $1.2 million), OT Germain Ifedi (one year, $1 million), CB Artie Burns (one year, $1 million)
The biggest change for the Bears was the upgrade from incumbent Chase Daniel to the Super Bowl-winning Foles as the backup to Trubisky. On the defensive side, Chicago released Floyd before signing Quinn as an upgrade to the pass-rush. The Bears will once again lean heavily on the defensive side of the ball while hoping to add an offensive playmaker via the 2020 NFL Draft.