NFL Playoff Odds: Wild Card Bubble Teams, Biggest Games For Week 18
With all but the final game of the regular season in the books, it’s time for fans and bettors to start sweating their teams’ chance of making the playoffs. What do the sportsbook odds on making the NFL playoff have to say about the current picture?
Indianapolis ran out of playoff steam in a disgusting Week 17 loss to the Giants. The Seahawks were similarly eliminated thanks to the Rams winning, which boosted their strength of record past the point where Seattle can catch them even if they win in Week 18 to draw level at 10-7. K.C. sewed up the top AFC seed, and the Eagles locked up the NFC East.
Week 18 will see the AFC North and NFC South decided, while the final wild card in the AFC remains up for grabs between three teams.
Let’s look at the odds for the NFL playoffs with teams on and around the bubble and highlight a few games that will move the needle this week.
NFL Team Odds To Make The Playoffs
Click the dropdown menu in the top left of the table below to pull up odds to make the NFL playoffs for any team, then click those odds to make a wager from among the best sports betting sites. And don’t forget to lock in the best sportsbook promo codes before making any bets.
Current Seeding: Odds To Make NFL Playoffs
| Team | No-Vig Odds | DVOA Odds | Current Best Price |
|---|---|---|---|
| AFC Playoff Picture | |||
| 7. Denver Broncos (9-7) | 82.4% | 80% | Yes -650 on FanDuel |
| 8. Miami Dolphins (8-8) | 12.7% | 15.9% | Yes +1040 on FanDuel |
| 9. Cincinnati Bengals (8-8) | 5.6% | 4.1% | Yes +900 on Bet365 |
| NFC Playoff Picture | |||
| 4. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (9-7) | 88.7% | 92.7% | Yes -1200 on BetMGM |
| 5. Detroit Lions (14-2) | 100% | 100% | N/A |
| 6. Washington Commanders (11-5) | 100% | 100% | N/A |
| 7. Green Bay Packers (11-5) | 100% | 100% | N/A |
| 8. Seattle Seahawks (9-7) | 0% | 0% | N/A |
| 9. Atlanta Falcons (8-8) | N/A | 7.3% | Yes +200 on BetMGM |
Four Week 18 Games That Will Swing NFL Playoff Odds
Bengals at Steelers
- Steelers’ current seed: 5th
- Bengals’ current seed: 9th
Pittsburgh needs to win to have a chance at the division. However, they also need a Baltimore loss, and by the time this game starts, they’ll already know whether that occurred. So, this game might wind up being meaningless for the Steelers. With the Ravens installed as the biggest favorites of the entire season, that seems very likely.
Cincinnati is looking to get a three-game parlay home. First, they need to beat the Steelers. Then, they need both the Dolphins (@ NYJ) and Broncos (vs. KC) to lose. The Chiefs will presumably be playing backups, having locked themselves into the AFC’s top seed.
Saints at Buccaneers
- Saints’ current seed: 13th
- Buccaneers’ current seed: 4th
The Bucs need to win at home against the wounded Saints. If they do, the NFC South is theirs. If they win and the Rams lose to the Seahawks at home, then Tampa Bay would move to the No. 3 seed by conference record tiebreaker.
A Bucs loss combined with a Falcons win (at home vs. Carolina) would knock Tampa Bay out of the playoffs entirely. Atlanta would win the division and earn the No. 4 seed.
Chiefs at Broncos
- Chiefs’ current seed: 1st
- Broncos’ current seed: 7th
Denver must win to secure the No. 7 seed and a road game against the Bills. If they lose this game, presumably facing many backups, they’re at the mercy of the Bengals’ and Dolphins’ results. They’d need both teams to lose. Either of them winning would make for a tie at 9-8, and Denver has the worst conference record of the trio.
Vikings at Lions
- Vikings’ current seed: 1st
- Lions’ current seed: 5th
The Vikings are only in first on a scheduling quirk, with Detroit pending a Monday Night Football game against the 49ers.
This game has no bearing on playoff chances, as both teams are locked in. However, there’s a massive difference in the losing team’s playoff path. The winner gets a bye and the No. 1 seed. The loser falls all the way to No. 5 and will play on the road against either Tampa Bay or the L.A. Rams to open the playoffs.
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