NFL Playoff Odds: Wild Card Bubble Teams & 4 Biggest Games For Week 18
As we approach the final games of the regular season, playoff scenarios come into focus. Some teams have simple situations in which only one result matters. Others need convoluted parlays to boost them in or to a better seeding. What do the sportsbook odds on making the NFL playoffs have to say about the current picture?
Most notably, in Week 17, the Rams sewed up a playoff spot, although other near-locks like the Browns and Chiefs also punched their tickets.
The AFC South and NFC South still remain undecided heading into Week 18, as do the AFC East and NFC East. In the latter two cases, though, the contending teams are all likely to make the playoffs.
Let’s look at NFL playoff odds for teams on and around the bubble and highlight a few games that will move the needle this week.
NFL Team Odds To Make The Playoffs
Click the dropdown menu in the top left of the table below to pull up odds to make the NFL playoffs for any team, then click those odds to make a wager from among the best sports betting sites.
Current Seeding: Odds To Make NFL Playoffs
| Team | No-Vig Odds | DVOA Odds | Current Best Price |
|---|---|---|---|
| AFC Playoff Picture | |||
| 4. Jacksonville Jaguars (9-7) | 74.5% | 72.7% | |
| 5. Cleveland Browns (11-5) | OTB | 100% | |
| 6. Buffalo Bills (10-6) | 86.4% | 85.4% | |
| 7. Indianapolis Colts (9-7) | 50% | 51.1% | |
| 8. Houston Texans (9-7) | 50.5% | 60.6% | |
| 9. Pittsburgh Steelers (9-7) | 42% | 29.1% | |
| NFC Playoff Picture | |||
| 4. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (8-8) | 68.9% | 74.3% | |
| 5. Philadelphia Eagles (11-5) | OTB | 100% | |
| 6. L.A. Rams (9-7) | OTB | 100% | |
| 7. Green Bay Packers (8-8) | 64.3% | 51.4% | |
| 8. Seattle Seahawks (8-8) | 26.5% | 34.1% | |
| 9. New Orleans Saints (8-8) | 27.3% | 29.2% | |
| 10. Minnesota Vikings (7-9) | 4.6% | 2.8% | |
| 12. Atlanta Falcons (7-8) | 11.2% | 8.1% |
*No-vig odds via BetMGM
Four Week 18 Games That Will Swing NFL Playoff Chances
Texans At Colts
- Texans current seed: 8th
- Colts current seed: 7th
The Texans and Colts both have pretty simple and straightforward scenarios, in the event they don’t tie. Either team wins, and they’re in the playoffs via wild card. Either team wins and the Jaguars blow it on the road in Tennessee, and they’re in as the division champs and will host a playoff game against the Browns.
Whichever team loses here becomes eliminated. Things could get weird if there’s a tie.
Jaguars At Titans
- Jaguars current seed: 4th
- Titans current seed: 14th
Last year, these two teams played for the division in Week 18. The stakes have become notably lower for the Titans, playing to see whether they go into the offseason with a bitter taste in their mouths or feeling slightly cheery about potentially ruining their rivals’ season.
The Jags will sew up the division with a win. However, if they lose, the Colts/Texans winner will one-up them and take the division at 10-7. Losing to the Titans would render the Jags in need of a lot of help. They would need the Steelers to lose, the Broncos to lose or tie, and a victor to emerge from the Colts and Texans. So, the Jags better win this game if they expect to continue their 2023-24 season.
Buccaneers At Panthers
- Buccaneers current seed: 4th
- Panthers current seed: dead last
This is also a one-way game in terms of stakes, with the Bucs in a very similar spot to that of the Jags. They’d win the division with a win and end up hosting a wild card game, likely against the Eagles. Unlike the Jags, the Bucs’ Week 17 loss leaves them without any wiggle room in the wild card picture. Only a convoluted scenario involving a tied game with the Panthers and multiple other results would get them in.
The Bucs winning would render the Saints/Falcons game likely meaningless, although a three-game parlay could still the Saints squeak in.
Bears At Packers
- Bears current seed: 11th
- Packers current seed: 7th
The Packers have crept back into the playoffs thanks to Seattle dropping a home game against Pittsburgh. They’re in on a fifth tiebreak (strength of victory). Now, they simply have to take care of business at home and beat their favorite punching bag, the Bears.
Of course, we saw this exact scenario last year, and it didn’t go well for the Pack at home against the Lions.
Some other parlays of multiple results could get the Packers in through the backdoor as well, but the most direct and clear path remains a win here. That would slam the door on the Seahawks, Vikings, and the Saints (as far as wild cards go).
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