NFL Playoff Odds: Wild Card Bubble Teams & 4 Biggest Games For Week 17

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Written By Mo Nuwwarah | Last Updated
Odds to make NFL playoffs

With more than half of the season in the books, it’s time for fans and bettors to start sweating their teams’ chance of making the playoffs. What do the sportsbook odds on making the NFL playoffs have to say about the current picture?

In Week 16, the Rams, Bills, and Seahawks solidified themselves as likely playoff participants. The Steelers stayed afloat, and the Buccaneers secured their standing as the unlikely kings of the NFC South. However, the AFC South continues to get more murky by the week, and it’s anyone’s guess who emerges for the crowded No. 7 seed in that conference.

Week 17 doesn’t have quite as many swing games. But several still match teams on the fringes of contention, and a battle in the NFC South may allow Tampa Bay to punch its ticket to the playoffs.

Let’s look at NFL playoff odds for teams on and around the bubble and highlight a few games that will move the needle this week.

NFL Team Odds To Make The Playoffs

Click the dropdown menu in the top left of the table below to pull up odds to make the NFL playoffs for any team, then click those odds to make a wager from among the best sports betting sites.

Current Seeding: Odds To Make NFL Playoffs

TeamNo-Vig OddsDVOA OddsCurrent Best Price
AFC Playoff Picture
4. Jacksonville Jaguars (8-7)OTB72.4%
5. Cleveland Browns (10-5)OTB100%
6. Buffalo Bills (9-6)86.4%88%
7. Indianapolis Colts (8-7)50%42.4%
8. Houston Texans (8-7)OTB47.5%
9. Pittsburgh Steelers (8-7)17.3%9.9%
10. Cincinnati Bengals (8-7)27.6%15.5%
11. Las Vegas Raiders (7-8)7.4%22%
12. Denver Broncos (7-8)13.5%5%
NFC Playoff Picture
4. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (8-7)84%91.6%
5. Dallas Cowboys (11-4)OTB100%
6. L.A. Rams (8-7)68.2%69.9%
7. Seattle Seahawks (8-7)72.4%67.5%
8. Minnesota Vikings (7-8)19.1%31.5%
9. Atlanta Falcons (7-8)17.3%6.3%
10. Green Bay Packers (7-8)34.4%19.8%
11. New Orleans Saints (7-8)19.1%9.3%

*No-vig odds via BetMGM

Four Week 17 Games That Will Swing NFL Playoff Chances

Raiders At Colts

  • Raiders current seed: 11th
  • Colts current seed: 7th

Improbably, the Raiders have climbed into the playoff hunt on the back of a two-game win streak that included a victory as double-digit dogs in Kansas City. If they win this game, then they’d be tied with Indy by record but obviously hold the tiebreak. Additionally, a solid 6-5 conference record gives them hope in other tiebreakers, and seemingly nobody from the AFC South and AFC North competing for a playoff spot can play consistent football. The Raiders could make one of the most improbable playoff runs in recent memory, starting with this game.

Indianapolis failed to make up any ground in the division with an ugly road loss to Atlanta. The good news was that everyone else in the division lost as well. With Jacksonville on the ropes and racked by injury, the Colts have a shot to swoop in and steal the division (). They should be favored or flipping at worst in back-to-back home games against Las Vegas and Houston.

Colts Upcoming Schedule

Houston Texans 10 – 7 – 0 Week 1: Sep. 8, 2024
Green Bay Packers 9 – 8 – 0 Week 2: Sep. 15, 2024
Chicago Bears 7 – 10 – 0 Week 3: Sep. 22, 2024

Saints At Buccaneers

  • Saints current seed: 11th
  • Buccaneers current seed: 4th

New Orleans’ season will be effectively over if they lose on the road to the Bucs here. If they do win, they’ll merely have given themselves a fighting chance, as they’ll find themselves in a tie atop the division. However, a weak 5-6 conference record and the fact that Tampa Bay still gets Carolina in Week 18 means the Saints still need help. The Rams and the Seahawks, whom they’d hope to pass, already have six conference wins.

Tampa Bay’s win streak has put the team in a lovely position, by contrast. They simply need to win one of their final two games and the division is theirs. If they can clinch at home here, the Bucs can rest in Week 18 knowing that they’re locked into the No. 4 seed.

Buccaneers Upcoming Schedule

Washington Commanders 4 – 13 – 0 Week 1: Sep. 8, 2024
Detroit Lions 12 – 5 – 0 Week 2: Sep. 15, 2024
Denver Broncos 8 – 9 – 0 Week 3: Sep. 22, 2024

Steelers At Seahawks

  • Steelers current seed: 9th
  • Seahawks current seed: 7th

Things went beautifully for the Steelers in Week 16. Not only did they get essentially a must-win game over the Bengals, but the Ravens’ win in San Francisco keeps alive the chance that Week 18 will be a rest one for Baltimore. That would greatly enhance the Steelers’ chances of winning out since a road game against the Ravens very likely means a loss under normal circumstances. Indianapolis and Houston having tiebreaks over the Steelers is very problematic, so they probably do need to win both of these final two for a playoff berth.

The Seahawks have picked themselves up off the mat and can now secure a playoff berth by winning out. They’ll be favored in both games, although overwhelmingly so in neither. Even going 1-1 will keep them in solid shape, especially provided the win comes in Week 18 in Arizona. That would leave Seattle with a 7-5 conference record and ensure they have tiebreakers over Minnesota and Atlanta. Staying out of the No. 7 seed would be ideal, since any win by that team ensures a trip to San Francisco in the divisional round (provided they hold as No. 1), but at this point, the Seahawks will take what they can get.

Seahawks Upcoming Schedule

Denver Broncos 8 – 9 – 0 Week 1: Sep. 8, 2024
New England Patriots 4 – 13 – 0 Week 2: Sep. 15, 2024
Miami Dolphins 11 – 6 – 0 Week 3: Sep. 22, 2024

Packers At Vikings

  • Packers current seed: 10th
  • Vikings current seed: 8th

Green Bay almost certainly needs to win out to get in, and they’ve caught a bit of a break here, with the Vikings possibly missing two of their top three pass catchers. TE TJ Hockenson tore his ACL, and WR Jordan Addison left Week 16 injured and didn’t return. The Packers have a slim chance to reach the playoffs with a loss in Week 18 and a win here, but go the other way, and it’s curtains because of Minnesota holding the tiebreak with a sweep.

The Vikings need some help to get in even with a two-game win streak to close the season. From their perspective, at least the 49ers are more likely to be playing Week 18 (vs. L.A. Rams) seriously now after surprisingly laying an egg at home against the Ravens. The Seahawks closing with two games in which they’re favored hurts. Minnesota needs to root hard for the 49ers and Cardinals in Week 18 if they have a pulse at all at that point.

Packers Upcoming Schedule

Philadelphia Eagles 11 – 6 – 0 Week 1: Sep. 6, 2024
Indianapolis Colts 9 – 8 – 0 Week 2: Sep. 15, 2024
Tennessee Titans 6 – 11 – 0 Week 3: Sep. 22, 2024

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