NFL Playoff Odds: Wild Card Bubble Teams, Biggest Games For Week 15
With most of the season in the books, it’s time for fans and bettors to start sweating their teams’ chance of making the playoffs. What do the sportsbook odds on making the NFL playoff have to say about the current picture?
In Week 14, the Lions and Chiefs solidified themselves atop their respective divisions. Meanwhile, the 49ers, Rams, and Seahawks took key wins in a hotly contested NFC West race.
This week, the Colts and Broncos play a massive one in Denver that could almost lock in Denver as a playoff team. And every NFC West team badly needs a win, so the matchup between the 49ers and Rams on Thursday night will be another banger.
Let’s look at the odds for the NFL playoffs with teams on and around the bubble and highlight a few games that will move the needle this week.
NFL Team Odds To Make The Playoffs
Click the dropdown menu in the top left of the table below to pull up odds to make the NFL playoffs for any team, then click those odds to make a wager from among the best sports betting sites. And don’t forget to lock in the best sportsbook promo codes before making any bets.
Current Seeding: Odds To Make NFL Playoffs
| Team | No-Vig Odds | DVOA Odds | Current Best Price |
|---|---|---|---|
| AFC Playoff Picture | |||
| 5. Baltimore Ravens (8-5) | 95.4% | 98.2% | Yes -550 on BetMGM |
| 6. Los Angeles Chargers (8-5) | 90.5% | 93.4% | Yes -122 on BetRivers |
| 7. Denver Broncos (8-5) | 69.5% | 81.6% | Yes +100 on BetRivers |
| 8. Indianapolis Colts (6-7) | 30.6% | 18.2% | Yes +170 on BetRivers |
| 9. Miami Dolphins (6-7) | 19.1% | 8.1% | Yes +160 on BetRivers |
| 10. Cincinnati Bengals (5-8) | 8% | 1% | Yes -167 on BetRivers |
| NFC Playoff Picture | |||
| 3. Seattle Seahawks (8-5) | 58.1% | 50.9% | Yes +175 on BetRivers |
| 4. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (7-6) | 70.4% | 73.2% | Yes -150 on BetMGM |
| 5. Minnesota Vikings (11-2) | 99.6% | 100% | Yes +130 on BetMGM |
| 6. Green Bay Packers (8-5) | 95.4% | 98.2% | Yes -122 on BetRivers |
| 7. Washington Commanders (8-5) | 79% | 86% | Yes -140 on BetMGM |
| 8. L.A. Rams (7-6) | 37.9% | 39.9% | Yes -180 on BetRivers |
| 9. Atlanta Falcons (6-7) | 37.9% | 32.4% | Yes +150 on BetRivers |
| 10. Arizona Cardinals (6-7) | 13.9% | 10.8% | Yes +150 on BetRivers |
| 11. San Francisco 49ers (6-7) | 8.6% | 7.5% | Yes -180 on BetRivers |
*No-vig odds via BetMGM
Four Week 15 Games That Will Swing NFL Playoff Chances
Colts At Broncos
- Colts’ current seed: 8th
- Broncos’ current seed: 7th
This is a must-win for the Colts. They come off the bye and head to Denver, which, unfortunately for Indy, also had a bye in Week 14. A win here would put the Colts within striking distance, one game back of Denver with the tiebreaker. Indianapolis has the third-easiest schedule remaining, while Denver has the ninth-toughest.
However, from Denver’s standpoint, the schedule isn’t as daunting as it appears on paper. The Week 18 home game against the Chiefs could be a free win if the Chiefs secured the top seed. At two games up, that looks reasonably likely to be the case.
Colts Upcoming Schedule
Rams At 49ers
- Rams’ current seed: 8th
- 49ers’ current seed: 11th
The Rams are in a pretty good position because they are a game back of Seattle, have a win in hand against them, and still get them at home. Thus, they must stay on the Seahawks’ tail and win in Week 18 to ensure a division title. Losing here, however, would put the 49ers back in the mix with a split of the season series.
This is likely must-win for the 49ers. They have the seventh-toughest schedule remaining, without a single free win (Arizona and Miami are their two weakest opponents). They still have to play the Lions as well. At 1-3 within division and 4-5 in conference, they aren’t likely to win any tiebreaks. Seahawks losses would help them immensely as well.
49ers Upcoming Schedule
Buccaneers At Chargers
- Buccaneers’ current seed: 4th
- Chargers’ current seed: 6th
Once looking buried at effectively three games back of the Falcons, Tampa Bay has stormed back again to take the division lead. They have one of the easiest schedules remaining, which gets even easier if Derek Carr hits IR. This is their toughest remaining test, so they’re almost home free if they win. The Falcons should win this week against the Raiders, so the Bucs would likely fall back into a tie if they drop this one, and Atlanta has the sweep for the tiebreaker.
It’s a much lower-leverage game for L.A., about locked into a wild card slot after dropping yet another heartbreaker to the Chiefs.
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Buccaneers Upcoming Schedule
Dolphins At Texans
- Dolphins’ current seed: 9th
- Texans’ current seed: 4th
Miami probably needs to win out, though their schedule is not impossible. Unfortunately, they have to face the Texans coming off their bye, but at least the Dolphins have gotten hot to give themselves a chance. A loss here almost certainly ends their season.
The Texans are all but locked into the No. 4 seed, with DVOA projecting an 81% chance they land there.
Dolphins Upcoming Schedule
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