NFL Playoff Odds: Wild Card Bubble Teams, Biggest Games For Week 15

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Written By Mo Nuwwarah | Last Updated
odds to make NFL playoffs

With more than half of the season in the books, it’s time for fans and bettors to start sweating their teams’ chance of making the playoffs. What do the sportsbook odds on making the NFL playoffs have to say about the current picture?

Week 14 proved to be a wild one, as the playoff scenarios in both conferences only got murkier. The AFC has a six-way tie for its last two playoff spots, while the NFC merely has a five-way tie for its last spot with a bonus three-way tie atop the South. Chaos beckons.

More playoff leverage than the past couple of weeks looms in Week 15. Several games pit bubble teams head-to-head with surprise playoff contenders such as the Steelers, Colts, and Jake Browning-led Bengals among the prominently featured.

Let’s look at NFL playoff odds for teams on and around the bubble and highlight a few games that will move the needle this week.

NFL Team Odds To Make The Playoffs

Click the dropdown menu in the top left of the table below to pull up odds to make the NFL playoffs for any team, then click those odds to make a wager from among the best sports betting sites.

Current Seeding: Odds To Make NFL Playoffs

TeamNo-Vig OddsDVOA OddsCurrent Best Price
AFC Playoff Picture
4. Jacksonville Jaguars (8-5)90.5%89%
5. Cleveland Browns (8-5)78.6%84.3%
6. Pittsburgh Steelers (7-6)31.9%27.9%
7. Indianapolis Colts (7-6)45.7%46%
8. Houston Texans (7-6)48.9%50.1%
9. Denver Broncos (7-6)40.1%50.8%
10. Cincinnati Bengals (7-6)22.7%19%
11. Buffalo Bills (7-6)44.4%35.5%
NFC Playoff Picture
4. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (6-7)44.4%52.8%
5. Philadelphia Eagles (10-3)OTB100%
6. Minnesota Vikings (7-6)OTB69.6%
7. Green Bay Packers (6-7)46.8%46.8%
8. L.A. Rams (6-7)33.6%28.8%
9. Seattle Seahawks (6-7)25.5%28.6%
10. Atlanta Falcons (6-7)40.1%31.1%
11. New Orleans Saints (6-7)38.6%37%
12. New York Giants (5-8)OTB1.4%
13. Chicago Bears (5-8)6.3%6.2%

*No-vig odds via BetMGM

Four Week 15 Games That Will Swing NFL Playoff Chances

Vikings At Bengals

  • Vikings current seed: 6th
  • Bengals current seed: 10th

It only feels like the Vikings lost last weekend. The 3-0 win over the Raiders was enough to keep the Vikes afloat in a suddenly hotly competitive NFC wild-card chase. Their odds are likely OTB for the moment while the market waits for a decision regarding the starting QB. Regardless, they still have work to do and a difficult schedule (Lions, Lions, Packers, Bengals). A strong 6-3 conference record will help them, though, and this game in which they’re road underdogs can’t change that, at least.

The Jake Browning experience is in full bloom. He ranks second in EPA+CPOE composite the past three weeks. However, the Bengals aren’t in a strong tiebreaker position with a dreadful 0-4 divisional record and a weak 3-6 conference record. They also play a top-10 most difficult schedule down the stretch, per Tankathon. So, they probably need a win here to remain in contention. It will be on Browning and this coaching staff, which also appears to be peaking, to solve the riddle of Brian Flores’ blitz packages.

Bengals Upcoming Schedule

New England Patriots 4 – 13 – 0 Week 1: Sep. 8, 2024
Kansas City Chiefs 11 – 6 – 0 Week 2: Sep. 15, 2024
Washington Commanders 4 – 13 – 0 Week 3: Sep. 23, 2024

Steelers At Colts

  • Steelers current seed: 6th
  • Colts current seed: 7th

It’s kind of amazing the Steelers can experience the slippage they did — back-to-back home losses to teams with six total wins — and still sit sixth. The Steelers are now in a precarious position, though. They squandered their easy games and have the eight-toughest schedule, including a game in Baltimore (they’ll be praying the Ravens have secured the No. 1 seed by Week 18). A loss here would give the Colts the better record, the head-to-head tiebreak, and the better conference record for a possible multi-way tiebreak. And backup QB Mitch Trubisky will have to be the man leading them to a road win.

The market is a bit more bullish on the Colts for that very reason, despite their awful performance on Sunday. They also have some slim AFC South equity (), although surpassing Jacksonville and its 27th-ranked schedule will obviously be a massive hill, given the Jags’ ownership of a 2-0 sweep. The Colts’ conference record (5-4) figures to help in a possible tiebreaker with the Broncos, but we’ll see if their ugly loss to the Bengals comes back to haunt them.

Steelers Upcoming Schedule

Atlanta Falcons 7 – 10 – 0 Week 1: Sep. 8, 2024
Denver Broncos 8 – 9 – 0 Week 2: Sep. 15, 2024
Los Angeles Chargers 5 – 12 – 0 Week 3: Sep. 22, 2024

Broncos At Lions

  • Broncos current seed: 9th
  • Lions current seed: 3rd

The Broncos have now put themselves in a strong position, as a dreamy finishing kick has them in great shape. Even dropping this one shouldn’t hurt too bad, as they still get three games against AFC also-rans in the Patriots, Chargers (now featuring Easton Stick) and Raiders. That will pad the ole conference record tiebreaker, and they’ve already sewed up the tiebreak over the Bills, which could prove huge. Additionally, having lost to Houston, the injury situation (CJ Stroud, Nico Collins now hurt in addition to Tank Dell) for the Texans boosts the chances of a tiebreaker never coming into play. DVOA has a notably sunnier view than the market and rates Denver as an above-average team.

The market and DVOA still consider the Lions a virtual lock. But cracks are showing. If the Vikings can find competent QB play, they have a real chance to unseat the Lions atop the NFC North () as the teams still play twice. Thankfully for Lions fans, the Packers blew their hopes with the road no-show against the Giants.

Broncos Upcoming Schedule

Seattle Seahawks 9 – 8 – 0 Week 1: Sep. 8, 2024
Pittsburgh Steelers 10 – 7 – 0 Week 2: Sep. 15, 2024
Tampa Bay Buccaneers 9 – 8 – 0 Week 3: Sep. 22, 2024

Buccaneers At Packers

  • Buccaneers current seed: 4th
  • Packers current seed: 7th

Tampa Bay got a monster, though likely undeserved, win to keep their season alive. Suddenly, they’re in the driver’s seat and market favorites () to win the division. Both teams have 3-1 division records, and each still plays the Saints and Panthers once apiece. Those games will have more weight on the final outcome, but a conference win here would still greatly help the cause for the Bucs.

Green Bay caught a huge break when Brett Rypien came to town quarterbacking the Rams instead of Matthew Stafford. They got a cheap win that looms large in a tiebreaker, and the Packers also get the easier schedule as the Rams must still play San Francisco on the road. Green Bay has the tiebreaker on the Saints but not the Falcons, so they’ll be rooting for Atlanta to falter down the stretch.

Packers Upcoming Schedule

Philadelphia Eagles 11 – 6 – 0 Week 1: Sep. 6, 2024
Indianapolis Colts 9 – 8 – 0 Week 2: Sep. 15, 2024
Tennessee Titans 6 – 11 – 0 Week 3: Sep. 22, 2024

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