NFL Playoff Odds: Bubble Teams, Biggest Games For Week 13

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Written By Mo Nuwwarah | Last Updated
odds to make NFL playoffs

With more than half of the season in the books, it’s time for fans and bettors to start sweating their teams’ chance of making the playoffs. What do the sportsbook odds on making the NFL playoffs have to say about the current picture?

In Week 12, some divisional races came to possibly early conclusions as the 49ers and Jaguars all but put theirs on ice with key road wins. The wild card picture remains very crowded in the AFC and has tightened up considerably in the NFC as the Vikings and Seahawks lost while the Packers and Rams won.

Week 13 doesn’t have many games with high playoff leverage, although two of the ones it does have probably feature some of the highest we’ve seen to date. Particularly this Broncos at Texans matchup, which could well wind up deciding a wild card berth.

Let’s look at NFL playoff odds for teams on and around the bubble and highlight a few games that will move the needle this week.

NFL Team Odds To Make The Playoffs

Click the dropdown menu in the top left of the table below to pull up odds to make the NFL playoffs for any team, then click those odds to make a wager from among the best sports betting sites.

Current Seeding: Odds To Make NFL Playoffs

TeamNo-Vig OddsDVOA OddsCurrent Best Price
AFC Playoff Picture
5. Pittsburgh Steelers (7-4)68.2%84%
6. Cleveland Browns (7-4)OTB75%
7. Indianapolis Colts (6-5)45.7%45.3%
8. Houston Texans (6-5)48.9%48.9%
9. Denver Broncos (6-5)41.4%26.4%
10. Buffalo Bills (6-6)20.2%13.5%
NFC Playoff Picture
4. Atlanta Falcons (5-6)53.3%39.7%
5. Dallas Cowboys (8-3)95%99.4%
6. Seattle Seahawks (6-5)42.6%39.5%
7. Minnesota Vikings (6-6)52.2%58.6%
8. Green Bay Packers (5-6)46.8%57.5%
9. L.A. Rams (5-6)27.6%22.6%
10. New Orleans Saints (5-6)48.9%57.6%
11. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (4-7)24.1%24.1%

Three Week 13 Games That Will Swing NFL Playoff Chances

Broncos At Texans

  • Broncos current seed: 9th
  • Texans current seed: 8th

It doesn’t get much bigger than this, with two teams back-to-back in the standings and also a tiebreaker away from being in there. They even have similar conference records at 3-3 (Houston) and 3-4 (Denver).

The Broncos already have a leg up on the Bills with their head-to-head win, and they’d love to add one over the Texans to build a strong tiebreaker portfolio. With Indianapolis sitting at 4-3 in the conference and still having the Raiders, Titans, and Bengals on the schedule, the Broncos will probably need all the tiebreaker help they can get.

Houston also has the Titans twice and still plays at Indy to end the season, where they’ll presumably be favorites. Getting to play Denver at him is a real advantage that they can ill afford to let slip away. They also face the Browns in Week 16 in what looms as a possible “loser leaves town” match. A win here would still leave the Texans in a pretty solid position, especially considering their market rating outpaces those of the three teams ahead of them.

Texans Upcoming Schedule

Houston Texans 10 – 7 – 0 Week 1: Sep. 8, 2024
Green Bay Packers 9 – 8 – 0 Week 2: Sep. 15, 2024
Chicago Bears 7 – 10 – 0 Week 3: Sep. 22, 2024

Browns At Rams

  • Browns current seed: 6th
  • Rams current seed: 9th

Things are in danger of slipping away for the Browns. Not only have they suffered a key loss to the Broncos that looms in tiebreaks, but they suffered so many injuries that their playoff odds markets are currently off the board. With Myles Garrett and Amari Cooper potentially down, not to mention the current starting QB, the Browns find themselves in dire straits. No doubt, when a betting market does open, it will reflect odds south of the current 75% that DVOA sees. A schedule that includes the Bears, Jets and Bengals may be the saving grace.

The Rams have crept into the hunt, storming out of the bye with consecutive wins. Unfortunately, the schedule looms as an obstacle, with games against the Ravens and 49ers still remaining. However, since the San Francisco game takes place Week 18, it’s possible the 49ers will be locked into the No. 3 seed. The Rams will be rooting hard for the Eagles to secure a win in Week 13. At least they’re catching the Browns at an ideal time, depending on how NFL injuries shake out for the week.

Browns Upcoming Schedule

Dallas Cowboys 12 – 5 – 0 Week 1: Sep. 8, 2024
Jacksonville Jaguars 9 – 8 – 0 Week 2: Sep. 15, 2024
New York Giants 6 – 11 – 0 Week 3: Sep. 22, 2024

Chiefs At Packers

  • Chiefs current seed: 2nd
  • Packers current seed: 8th

Obviously, the Chiefs have little worry in terms of making the playoffs or winning the division. This simply comes down to securing the all-important first-round bye and home-field advantage for the Arrowhead Invitational, or AFC Conference Championship, if you prefer the traditional nomenclature. Since two of Kansas City’s losses came to NFC teams, they should have the tiebreak edge on Baltimore, meaning that as long as they keep winning (currently tied in loss column), they’ll earn the top seed.

Green Bay is in a much different situation in all but one sense: like the Chiefs, they have a friendly closing stretch with a bottom-five opponent win percentage. That certainly helps, but they need wins just to get in. Thankfully, the hellish schedule in front of Seattle helps their chances greatly. Already, the Pack nearly doubled their playoff probability with the huge Thanksgiving upset. Can they get another? Note that Week 17 in Minnesota looms very large here, with the Vikings already creaming the Pack in Green Bay.

Packers Upcoming Schedule

Philadelphia Eagles 11 – 6 – 0 Week 1: Sep. 6, 2024
Indianapolis Colts 9 – 8 – 0 Week 2: Sep. 15, 2024
Tennessee Titans 6 – 11 – 0 Week 3: Sep. 22, 2024

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