NFL Playoff Odds: Bubble Teams, Biggest Games For Week 12
With more than half of the season in the books, it’s time for fans and bettors to start sweating their teams’ chance of making the playoffs. What do the odds of making the NFL playoffs have to say about the current picture?
In Week 11, the Browns secured a key win, dropping opponent Pittsburgh to the playoff bubble. Meanwhile, losses by the Seahawks and Vikings weakened their positions. While they’re still solidly in, the door remains open for someone to charge in from the dregs.
Week 12 has more playoff leverage than Week 11, with bubble teams battling in several spots. However, three divisional races come into the most focus: the AFC South, NFC South, and NFC West all have key games on tap that may go a long way to deciding the division champions.
Let’s look at NFL playoff odds for teams on and around the bubble, and highlight a few games that will move the needle this week.
NFL Team Odds To Make The Playoffs
Click the dropdown menu in the top left of the table below to pull up odds to make the NFL playoffs for any team, then click those odds to make a wager from among the best sports betting sites.
Current Seeding: Odds To Make NFL Playoffs
| Team | No-Vig Odds | DVOA Odds | Current Best Price |
|---|---|---|---|
| AFC Playoff Picture | |||
| 3. Jacksonville Jaguars (7-3) | 88.7% | 91.3% | |
| 4. Miami Dolphins (7-3) | 90.9% | 91% | |
| 5. Cleveland Browns (7-3) | 76.6% | 89.9% | |
| 6. Houston Texans (6-4) | 60.9% | 58.9% | |
| 7. Pittsburgh Steelers (6-4) | 53.3% | 68.4% | |
| 8. Buffalo Bills (6-5) | 36.1% | 32.5% | |
| 9. Indianapolis Colts (5-5) | 31.8% | 32.4% | |
| 10. Denver Broncos (5-5) | 24.1% | 11.9% | |
| 11. Cincinnati Bengals (5-5) | 14.1% | 7.9% | |
| NFC Playoff Picture | |||
| 4. New Orleans Saints (5-5) | 61.9% | 72.7% | |
| 5. Dallas Cowboys (7-3) | 93.6% | 98% | |
| 6. Seattle Seahawks (6-4) | 66% | 58.8% | |
| 7. Minnesota Vikings (6-5) | 66.4%% | 77.4% | |
| 8. Green Bay Packers (4-6) | 25.5% | 25.1% | |
| 9. L.A. Rams (4-6) | 16% | 10.4% | |
| 10. Atlanta Falcons (4-6) | 31.8% | 22.9% | |
| 11. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (4-6) | 31.8% | 33.1% |
- No-vig odds via BetMGM
Four Week 12 Games That Will Swing NFL Playoff Chances
49ers At Seahawks
- 49ers current seed: 3rd
- Seahawks current seed: 6th
San Francisco is basically assured of making the playoffs (). This game only matters from the standpoint of winning the NFC West. They’re already big favorites, and a win here would all but sew that up, giving them a multiple-game lead with a home game still remaining against the Seahawks.
All of which means this is essentially a must-win for Seattle’s divisional hopes. They figure to be massive road underdogs, possibly as high as double digits when these teams meet in Week 14. Combine that with one of the toughest schedules in the league — they must still play the Eagles and Cowboys — and their ceiling will be a wild card ticket if they lose this home game. While they’ll remain in playoff position with a loss, they’ll find themselves on shaky ground. The brutal Week 11 defeat to the Rams looms.
Seahawks Upcoming Schedule
Jaguars At Texans
- Jaguars current seed: 3rd
- Texans current seed: 6th
Like San Francisco, Jacksonville doesn’t appear to have much to sweat on the surface. While the Jaguars’ playoff odds don’t paint quite the same picture (), a loss here would leave them in wild card position. In a much more crowded AFC, they wouldn’t be locked in just yet, although a favorable closing schedule gives them some breathing room. A 5-2 conference record may favor them as well come tiebreak season.
Houston, though, can take command of the division with a win here. That would leave these teams tied in record, but the Texans already won in Jacksonville, so a home win assures them of the tiebreak. With two games against the Titans, as well as the Colts and the collapsing Jets on the schedule, Houston is in a decent position to contend for a wild card even with a loss.
Texans Upcoming Schedule
Saints At Falcons
- Saints current seed: 4th
- Falcons current seed: 10th
Despite the comical seeding distance between these teams, the betting market (Saints in Atlanta) sees them as quite close. The Saints may enter Week 12 starting backup QB Jameis Winston, but a soft schedule (games against the Giants and Panthers remain) gives them a shot at a wild card even with a loss. However, a loss to the Vikings could prove problematic.
Atlanta also lost to Minnesota and has a worse record, so winning the division represents the Falcons’ best hope for playoff football. By opponent win percentage, they have the easiest schedule in the NFL, though. They must still play in New Orleans, however, so this game is close to a must-win.
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Saints Upcoming Schedule
Browns At Broncos
- Browns current seed: 5th
- Broncos current seed: 10th
DVOA sees the Browns as massive favorites to make the playoffs after grinding out a close one over the Steelers. However, the betting market is far less certain, with Dorian Thompson-Robinson’s poor play likely the primary driver of the skepticism. Cleveland does have a favorable closing stretch that includes the Bears, Jets and Joe Burrow-less Bengals. And their tiebreak position looks pristine with a 5-2 conference record. Catching the Ravens in the AFC North isn’t even out of the question (), considering Baltimore has a top-five most difficult schedule remaining.
Once left for dead, the Broncos now find themselves one game back of a playoff spot after reeling off four straight wins, including defeats of Josh Allen and Patrick Mahomes. The betting market is buying in, even if the projections aren’t. This is likely due to the nature of some of these wins. Denver has yet to demonstrate an ability to convincingly outplay anyone, but the wins all count the same in the playoff chase. If they continue playing mistake-free football, they’ll have a shot, with the most difficult games in the rearview now.
Broncos Upcoming Schedule
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