NFL Playoff Odds: Bubble Teams, Biggest Games For Week 11
With more than half of the season in the books, it’s time for fans and bettors to start sweating their teams’ chance of making the playoffs. What do the odds of making the NFL playoffs have to say about the current picture?
Once again, the Bills blew it, sinking their odds to make the NFL playoffs even lower after Week 10. Meanwhile, the Steelers, Browns, Texans and Vikings secured key wins to strengthen their positions.
Unsurprisingly, those AFC teams once again feature in Week 11 swing games. In fact, the Steelers and Browns go head-to-head in possibly the most pivotal game of the week.
Let’s take a look at NFL playoff odds for teams on and around the bubble, as well as highlight a few games that will move the needle this week.
NFL Team Odds To Make The Playoffs
Click the dropdown menu in the top left of the table below to pull up odds to make the NFL playoffs for any team, then click those odds to make a wager from among the best sports betting sites.
Current Seeding: Odds To Make NFL Playoffs
|Team||No-Vig Odds||DVOA Odds||Current Best Price|
|AFC Playoff Picture|
|3. Jacksonville Jaguars (6-3)||79.8%||79.2%|
|4. Miami Dolphins (6-3)||86.3%||86.2%|
|5. Pittsburgh Steelers (6-3)||45.7%||65.3%|
|6. Cleveland Browns (6-3)||60.7%||84.2%|
|7. Houston Texans (5-4)||45.7%||52.8%|
|8. Cincinnati Bengals (5-4)||55.6%||31.8%|
|9. Indianapolis Colts (5-5)||25.5%||28.9%|
|10. Buffalo Bills (5-5)||34%||26.3%|
|11. Las Vegas Raiders (5-5)||12%||5.5%|
|NFC Playoff Picture|
|4. New Orleans Saints (5-5)||N/A||70.5%|
|5. Seattle Seahawks (6-3)||74.5%||75.9%|
|6. Dallas Cowboys (6-3)||92%||95.5%|
|7. Minnesota Vikings (6-4)||64.7%||77.9%|
|NFC South Bubble|
|Tampa Bay Buccaneers (4-5)||36.1%||35.7%|
- No-vig odds via BetMGM
Three Week 11 Games That Will Swing NFL Playoff Chances
Bengals At Ravens
- Bengals current seed: 2nd
- Ravens current seed: 8th
The Bengals dropped a brutal one after nearly pulling victory from the jaws of defeat, and they paid for it in odds to make the NFL playoffs. This is essentially a must-win if the Bengals hope to compete in the divisional race (), since they already dropped a home game to Baltimore. The market still likes them slightly to make the playoffs, but they have one of the nastiest schedules in the league, so that won’t be the case should they take another L here. Particularly given the Texans occupy the other end of the schedule spectrum and hold the tiebreak now.
Baltimore is very likely to make the playoffs, but things could get a little hairy if they lose this one. They’d fall out of the division lead by a half-game (unless Pittsburgh and Cleveland tie), and the AFC is very tightly bunched. Most likely, they have nothing to worry about aside from a Lamar Jackson injury, but the Ravens have collapsed down the stretch after hot starts before.
Bengals Upcoming Schedule
Steelers At Browns
- Steelers current seed: 5th
- Browns current seed: 6th
Currently, the Steelers hold the tiebreak with their head-to-head win, but they are decent road underdogs here (). They’re still in a fairly precarious position according to indicators like point differential (-26) and net yards per play (-0.8), but DVOA gives them a lot of credit for fighting through a tough schedule. It has them 12th. The market still thinks they miss more often than they make, so they have a massive differential with the projections.
Cleveland got one of the biggest wins of Week 10, and they benefit from playing a last-place schedule. That may be why the projections are so in on their chances. Games against the L.A. Rams, Chicago, and New York Jets still remain. Cleveland still has a chance in the division as well (), a half-game back of Baltimore with identical 2-2 divisional records.
Editor’s Note: This post was written and published a day prior to the announcement that Deshaun Watson would miss the rest of the season. The Browns are now very short home favorites in Week 11, and their odds have gotten quite a bit longer to win the division as the team announced untested rookie Dorian Thompson-Robinson will work as the starter for the time being.
Steelers Upcoming Schedule
Jets At Bills
- Jets current seed: 13th
- Bills current seed: 10th
The Jets are all but out of it, with playoff odds on the fringe () despite being only a game back of the No. 7 seed. With an ugly 2-4 conference record, they need to start collecting AFC wins in a hurry if a miraculous Aaron Rodgers return is going to move the needle.
It’s really come to this for the Buffalo Bills. At 2-5, they have an even worse conference record than the Jets, hurting their tiebreak chances. Oh, and Cincinnati already locked up the tiebreak. Then, there’s the schedule. They somehow still have road games against Philadelphia, Kansas City, L.A. Chargers, and Miami. To say nothing of a home game against Dallas. If anything, the market price looks too bullish. It’s hard to call a November game must-win, but this one is close.
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Bills Upcoming Schedule
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