NFL Playoff Odds: Bubble Teams, Biggest Games For Week 10
With more than half of the season in the books, it’s time for fans and bettors to start sweating their teams’ chance of making the playoffs. What do the odds of making the NFL playoffs have to say about the current picture?
After a hot start to the season, few could have imagined the Bills would be fighting for their playoff lives at the midpoint. But that’s where they sit after the ugly Week 9 loss to Cincinnati. NFL playoff odds certainly say they need to be worried.
This week, the Bills could get a reprieve as touchdown favorites at home against Denver, but they’ll need it with their upcoming schedule. Meanwhile, the Commanders try to get their heads above water, and the Bengals try to solidify their own chances.
Let’s take a look at NFL playoff odds for teams on and around the bubble, as well as highlight a few games that will move the needle this week.
NFL Team Odds To Make The Playoffs
Click the dropdown menu in the top left of the table below to pull up odds to make the NFL playoffs for any team, then click those odds to make a wager from among the best sports betting sites.
Current Seeding: Odds To Make NFL Playoffs
| Team | No-Vig Odds | NYT Odds | Current Best Price |
|---|---|---|---|
| AFC Playoff Picture | |||
| 5. Pittsburgh Steelers (5-3) | 40% | 44% | |
| 6. Cleveland Browns (5-3) | 61% | 62% | |
| 7. Cincinnati Bengals (5-3) | 72% | 69% | |
| 8. Buffalo Bills (5-4) | 51% | 47% | |
| 9. Houston Texans (4-4) | 31% | 32% | |
| 10. L.A. Chargers (4-4) | 41% | 36% | |
| 11. New York Jets (4-4) | 25% | 16% | |
| NFC Playoff Picture | |||
| 4. New Orleans Saints (5-4) | 72% | 86% | |
| 5. Seattle Seahawks (5-3) | 70% | 76% | |
| 6. Dallas Cowboys (5-3) | 90% | 95% | |
| 7. Minnesota Vikings (5-4) | 57% | 63% | |
| 8. Washington Commanders (4-5) | 12% | 12% | |
| 9. Atlanta Falcons (4-5) | 57% | 31% |
Four Week 10 Games That Will Swing NFL Playoff Chances
Saints At Vikings
- Saints current seed: 4th
- Vikings current seed: 7th
New Orleans’ fortunes are on the upswing after two straight wins, while the Buccaneers and Falcons scuffled over the weekend again. With an easy schedule, a lead in the division, the best quarterback, and the most talented roster, the Saints have the inside track against these teams. Taysom Hill appears to have eased the team’s red-zone concerns for now as well. The market rightfully sees them as favorites.
Minnesota was left for dead by many after losing Justin Jefferson and then Kirk Cousins, the latter for the season in NFL injuries. Could Josh Dobbs resurrect Vikings odds? He did so now with a big win over Atlanta, and the No. 7 race looks wide open between a bunch of forgettable teams.
Vikings Upcoming Schedule
Texans At Bengals
- Texans current seed: 9th
- Bengals current seed: 7th
Will the Bengals be the proverbial “team nobody wants to play?” Indeed, no No. 2 seed would be excited to face them, although they’ll still have their chances in the division. However, that will almost certainly require a road win in Baltimore, so keep Nov. 16 circled on your calendar for that one. Getting the tiebreak over the Bills could prove crucial for simply locking into the playoffs or for home field in an eventual playoff matchup.
Houston still has an outside shot at the division but probably needs to sweep the Jaguars. CJ Stroud’s outstanding rookie season continued with a fantastic comeback against the Bucs. Houston sits in a jumble of four-loss teams, but adding a win over Cincinnati to its win over Pittsburgh could prove quite helpful come tiebreak season.
Texans Upcoming Schedule
Commanders At Seahawks
- Commanders current seed: 8th
- Seahawks current seed: 5th
Washington remained on the fringe of the playoff hunt with a road win in New England, which figures to be one of the highest-leverage spots of the week. The Commanders already have a win over Atlanta in their back pocket, and getting one over a team that figures to be among the top wild-card contenders would be huge.
Seattle, meanwhile, has tough games remaining against San Francisco (twice), Philly, and Dallas. That means taking care of business at home as sizable favorites is paramount. Losing this would pile on the pressure, particularly for those 49ers matchups against a team that repeatedly laughed them off the field in 2022.
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Seahawks Upcoming Schedule
Broncos At Bills
- Broncos current seed: 15th
- Bills current seed: 8th
The Broncos aren’t out of it, even though they’re seeded 15th. They’re only two games back of the seventh-seeded Bengals. And having two games with Kansas City already in the books helps the remaining schedule.
But the main leverage comes on Buffalo’s side. Could the Bills actually miss the playoffs? The market says absolutely, so they’ll need to stay locked in and not let a game like this carelessly slip away. Buffalo still has to play Kansas City and Philly, as well as in Miami. That’s likely part of what drives their ominous odds to make the NFL playoffs.
Best of luck betting the odds to make NFL playoffs.
Bills Upcoming Schedule
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