Where Do Biden, Trump Sit In Odds To Be Next US President?

Written By Evan Scrimshaw on November 23, 2022
presidential Election odds Joe Biden Donald Trump

With the focus of the political world now moving from the results of the 2022 Midterms to the odds to be the next U.S. President in 2024, there’s a renewed interest in who will be the next resident of the Oval Office. Last week, we focused on potential Democratic and Republican nominees to be President, but now is time to focus on overall Presidential election odds in a couple different variations.

Fortunately, Americans can legally bet on the outcome at PredictIt. Canadians can also wager below at BetMGM. Click on the odds to bet now.

Party Winner: 2024 US President

CandidatePredictIt PriceOdds Equivalent
Republican$0.53-113
Democrat$0.49+104

This price is absurdist nonsense at this point. There is still this idea that Democrats are underdogs to win again in 2024 is widely held, as this price shows, but it’s nonsense.

In general, midterms are not very predictive of General election performances two years later. Obama, Clinton, and Reagan all massively outperformed their first midterm in winning a second term, and Trump lost by less than his midterm drubbing would have suggested, but that’s mostly because all four had disastrous first midterms. In the two modern cases where the incumbent had a decent midterm night – both President Bushes – their General Election results were underwhelming two years later.

The thing is, the narrative that many expected was that 2022 was going to be a demolition of Biden and the Democratic Party and that the party would be hurt by the need to replace Joe Biden and weakness across the swing states. The problem is, Biden is now emboldened to stay on as the Party’s nominee, health permitting, and the swing state picture looks very good for Biden after the midterms.

Assuming the GOP hold everything that Trump won in 2020, the GOP have to get 35 Electoral College votes out of the following 5 states to win the Presidency – Nevada (6), Arizona (11), Georgia (16), Pennsylvania (19), and Wisconsin (10). They in theory have a shot at Michigan’s 15 Electoral College votes, but after the decimation the GOP suffered there, it’s highly unlikely to be anything more than a state that flips well after the GOP have hit 270.

Here’s the GOP’s problem – they just lost a Senate race in a favourable year during bad economic times in four of those states, and the one they didn’t win they lost by less than 1%.

We can start with Arizona, where the GOP have lost both the Governorship and their attempt to win back a Senate seat. The GOP are cratering in the white parts of the suburbs of Phoenix, which is where their traditional winning coalition came from. Even with lower turnout from Hispanic voters in the state, Democrats are gaining ground cycle after cycle, and Democrats start 2024 against either DeSantis or Trump a favorite in the state.

The same applies to Georgia, where Democrats “won” the state’s Senate seat by the rules any other state would use to determine winners and losers, and are sizable favorites in the runoff. The reason Democrats didn’t win the seat outright is simple – the share of the electorate that was Black fell from 29% in 2020 and 32% in 2021 to 28%. With Presidential year attention and focus, and Georgia being firmly a need state in 2024 after being a want state in 2020, Biden will invest more in Black turnout operations, pushing it to the Democrats favored column.

The GOP now need a sweep of the last three states, and they do have some good news – Nevada was extremely close this cycle and could flip, and Wisconsin has been a sore spot for Democrats – but the problem is, they need to win both of those, and even if you think they’re slight favorites in both, you’re essentially flipping two coins just to get to a place where Pennsylvania matters.

Pennsylvania was the Democrats’ best state in November, with their Senate gain ensuring they control the Senate even throughout the Georgia runoff uncertainty. The problem for the GOP was simple – their turnout in the rurals fell off without Trump on the ballot, but the lack of Trump didn’t get them good enough results in the left-trending suburbs.

Pennsylvania looks pretty tapped out of rightward trending areas at this point – the rurals are close to maxed out for Republicans. What isn’t even close to maxed out is the suburbs and the outer parts of the cities, big and small, where educated voters are sprinting left. The fact they sprinted left even for a candidate who was not stereotypically well suited to the suburbs is even more evidence that they’re gonna sprint away from the next GOP nominee.

The chance the GOP can win the next Presidential election is not zero, but they would need a better electoral environment in two years than they had now, and that’s unlikely. The Fed is going to be pushing rate increases for a big longer, but the prospect of a soft landing or a recession happening in 2023 and the economy growing in 2024 – also known as when the voting is happening – seems fairly high.

Presidential Odds

PredictIt Pricing For 2024 US Presidential Election

CandidatePredictIt PriceOdds Equivalent
Joe Biden$0.30+233
Ron DeSantis$0.27+270
Donald Trump$0.22+355
Gavin Newsom$0.11+809
Kamala Harris$0.07+1329
Pete Buttigieg$0.05+1900

BetMGM Sportsbook Odds For 2024 US Presidential Election

Here’s a look at Election odds from BetMGM (Ontario, Canada).

CandidateUS President Odds 2024
Ron DeSantis+225
Donald Trump+350
Joe Biden+400
Kamala Harris+1200
Gavin Newsom+1400
Mike Pence+2500
Pete Buttigieg+2800
Michelle Obama+3300
Nikki Haley+3300
Hillary Clinton+4000
Dwayne The Rock Johnson+5000
Mike Pompeo+5000
Marco Rubio+5000
Ivanka Trump+6600
AOC+6600
Elizabeth Warren+6600
Tucker Carlson+6600
Josh Hawley+6600
Kristi Noem+6600
Tim Scott+6600
Amy Klobuchar+10000
Donald Trump Jr+10000
Bernie Sanders+10000
George Clooney+10000
Stacey Abrams+10000
Beto O'Rourke+10000
Bill Gates+10000
Kanye West+10000
Mitt Romney+10000
Andrew Yang+15000

Market Analysis

Joe Biden is a genuinely insane price in Presidential election odds.

There’s very complicated ways of doing the analysis for what a “fair” price for this is, but Chance of Winning Nomination multiplied by Chance Of Winning Presidency If Nominee is the easiest. Biden has at least an 80% chance of winning the nomination and Democrats are at minimum 60/40 favorites to win the Presidency, which puts his fair price around 48%.

Ron DeSantis is massively overrated by this metric – he’s maybe got a 30% chance of winning the nomination, and then a 40% chance of winning outright, so a fair price is around 12%.

Trump’s a minor value, but it’s better to just bet him to win the GOP nomination given his flaws as a general election candidate and the fact there’s a bigger edge there.

Shorting every single other potentially nominee makes sense – the GOP are not going to nominate any of the lackeys likely to run this time, and most of them are running to set themselves up for next time, whereas so long as Biden is healthy, he will run. If he doesn’t, it’ll be Kamala Harris.

Shorting Gavin Newsom in particular makes a ton of sense – he’s a mediocre electoral performer, he’s less likely to be the nominee than the other contender from his home state, and there is a lot of anger at Newsom for his horrible performance this year costing Democrats more than a few House seats. Newsom will not be the Democratic nominee, and he will not become President.

Best of luck wagering on Presidential election odds, if you choose to do so.

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