Nuggets Odds vs. Heat: NBA Finals Game 5 Betting, Predictions, Promos

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Written By Mo Nuwwarah | Last Updated
Nuggets odds

The last game of the NBA playoffs may go down tonight. Certainly, the market thinks so, with Denver Nuggets odds priced at for Game 5 at home against the Miami Heat. The total is set at .

Here, we’ll preview Game 5 of the NBA Finals with a look at some possible betting angles in various markets.

Click on any of the NBA Finals odds in this article to place a wager.

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Game 5: Nuggets Odds vs. Heat

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NBA Finals Game 5 Betting Preview

Thus far in the 2023 NBA Finals, the Denver Nuggets have a monster +10.1 rating in the series. Due to the glacial 89.2 pace — the Cavs had the league’s slowest in the regular season at 97.4 — that has worked out to roughly a nine-point win on average. Not coincidentally, that’s right where the line sits for Game 5. The market fully expects a Nuggets closeout at home, where Denver has lost only once this entire postseason (Game 2 at home vs. Miami).

Stopping Nikola Jokic has proven impossible, something I detailed as a likely outcome in my NBA Finals preview. The Heat have a severe lack of size, with even defensive ace Bam Adebayo unable to withstand Jokic’s brutal post efficiency.

Even Miami’s lone win in the series came on the back of a 17-for-35 shooting performance from long distance. Denver posted a 124.3 ORtg in that game (would have scored ~124 points in a 100-possession game). Miami simply outscored them.

In fact, that may be the only formula that allows Miami to compete. And they appear to have a lineup adjustment coming that could maximize this opportunity.

Tyler Herro To Return For Game 5

After missing about two months with a broken hand, Tyler Herro will reportedly return for Game 5.

An offense-first ball handler who takes a ton of 3s — about half of his 16.6 FGA per game — Herro will allow the Heat to lean into their likely only hope of winning this game. He nailed a very solid 37.8% of his 3s this year, an especially strong number considering he takes a decent amount of them off the bounce.

Particularly against the Nuggets, Herro’s ability to make 3s off high screens that bring Jokic into the action as the help defender could prove fruitful. Portland and Golden State have generate tons of looks for Damian Lillard and Stephen Curry, respectively, against Jokic’s conservative coverage in the past.

Of course, Herro’s presence will likely affect NBA Finals player props (see market numbers below). His level of conditioning is anyone’s guess, but he’s unlikely to come close to a full minutes load. A fair expectation would seem between 20 and 25 minutes. Gabe Vincent, Max Strus and Duncan Robinson are all candidates to see reduced run and/or usage with Herro returning. Correctly forecasting how that shakes out will surely unearth some value in the prop markets.

Closing Thoughts For NBA Finals Game 5 Betting

Miami Heat odds have been a tremendous bet when few believed in them this postseason, coming through numerous times as underdogs against the Bucks and Celtics. However, they’ve failed to come close to solving the matchup issues with Nikola Jokic. If they had an adjustment card to play, we’d have surely seen it by now.

I fully expect Denver to close out the series here, but the market looks too sharp to bet.

If I make a bet on this game, it will be on over the total. Between the possible boost of Herro’s off-the-dribble creation combined with his well-documented defensive deficiencies, we could see some more points purely based on that new variable. Denver will also likely shoot more 3s, having taken about 25 per game so far, down from more than 30 in the regular season against a team that has allowed a ton of 3s all year. And we’re getting a rock-bottom number after four games played in molasses. Surely, things can’t slow down any more than this, right?

Nuggets vs. Heat Odds: NBA Player Props

How to Watch Nuggets vs. Heat, Game 5

This game is set to tip off at 8:30 p.m. EST on Monday. You can catch all of the action on ABC.

Nuggets Odds: Sports Betting Promos

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