Indiana At Notre Dame CFP Round 1 Odds, Expert Picks, Predictions: Hoosier Upset?
The first-ever 12-team College Football Playoff kicks off when the No. 7 seed Notre Dame Fighting Irish (11-1) host the No. 10 seed Indiana Hoosiers (11-1) in snowy South Bend, Indiana, on Friday, Dec. 20. Notre Dame has won 10 straight since falling at home to Northern Illinois. The Irish earned the No. 7 seed and the right to host a playoff game. They are Notre Dame Fighting Irish -23.5 (-120) on FanDuel favorites against Indiana. The Hoosiers tallied an 11-1 record in Curt Cignetti’s first season as head coach. Let’s handicap the odds for Notre Dame vs. Indiana, including my best bets.
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Indiana at Notre Dame: spread, moneyline, total
Notre Dame vs. Indiana Player Props
Are The Irish Overvalued?
Marcus Freeman’s bunch has constructed one of the best statistical resumes of any upper-echelon college football program.
However, Notre Dame ranks 60th in strength of schedule in FBS. After upsetting Texas A&M in Week 1, the Irish avoided facing elite offenses beyond the service academies’ triple-option of Navy and Army.
Against USC’s explosive passing attack in the regular-season finale, the Fighting Irish surrendered 7.3 yards per pass attempt (YPA) but covered the point spread thanks to a pair of fourth-quarter pick-sixes.
The market movement reflects this notion. When the bracket was released, Notre Dame opened as an eight-point favorite, yet the spread is down to -6.5 at most shops.
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My Pick: Indiana +7 Or Better
With the Fighting Irish down stud cornerback Benjamin Morrison (hip surgery), I’m skeptical of their secondary against Kurtis Rourke and Co. Indiana has manufactured the most points per pass attempt (PPA) nationally. Rourke also completes over 52% of his passes, more than 10 yards downfield. According to Pro Football Focus, the grad transfer has tallied 18 big-time throws to only five turnover-worthy plays.
Conversely, Cignetti presents the defensive personnel to stymie Notre Dame running back Jeremiyah Love and the rest of the backfield that employs plenty of inside-zone rush attempts.
Against Ohio State, Indiana’s defensive line proved its stature in the trenches. This crew is atop FBS in defensive stuff rate and adjusted line yards allowed.
The Hoosiers also rank sixth in havoc created by their front seven, ahead of Texas, Ohio State, and Penn State in this metric.
Even in the hostile Notre Dame Stadium, Indiana should be up to the task against an offense that relies on the ground game to get ahead of the sticks. Remember that Irish quarterback Riley Leonard ranks 120th in explosive passing rate.
If Leonard and the offense are relegated to a negative game script at any point, I’m skeptical they can overcome. As you’ll see below, I bet on the Hoosiers to cover the spread shortly after the odds for Notre Dame vs. Indiana were released.
Over the last three years, 59 underdogs covered the 122 Bowl and College Football Playoff games (.484). To boot, 42 of the 59 (.712) won outright. If you expect Indiana to hang around, consider sprinkling some pizza money on the moneyline.
Related: College Football Playoff Look-Ahead Lines, Including Georgia vs. Notre Dame
odds of winning the college football playoff
No. 1 Oregon (13-0), the lone undefeated college football team, is tied with Texas for the best odds to win the inaugural 12-team College Football Playoff. The Ducks clinched the top seed with a victory in the Big Ten championship game versus Penn State. Just before that matchup began, the No. 2 Bulldogs beat the No. 5 Longhorns in overtime for the SEC title.
Meanwhile, Notre Dame is a trendy pick to win the CFP at Notre Dame Fighting Irish +280 on DraftKings, and the Hoosiers have enormous odds at Indiana Hoosiers +15000 on BetRivers. The entire national championship odds board is below.
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