Northern Trust Odds: Jason Day Among Biggest Movers Ahead Of TPC Boston Event

Posted By FairwayJay on August 19, 2020 - Last Updated on August 20, 2020
Jason Day Northern Trust odds TPC Boston

The FedExCup Playoffs and the Northern Trust Open begin on Thursday at TPC Boston following an unusual season that sent the PGA Tour into the rough during the COVID-19 crisis. Many top golfers played more events than usual starting in June and some of the elite had to play catch-up in the FedExCup standings.

The field is loaded for this year’s Northern Trust and it has been today’s highly-ranked players that have won at TPC Boston in the last three trips. Bryson DeChambeau (2018), Justin Thomas (2017) and Rory McIlroy (2016) have all won in Norton, Massachusetts recently.

Looking at the odds, there has been no movement on the big three at either DraftKings Sportsbook or FanDuel Sportsbook since openers Monday with best odds available on DeChambeau (+1200) and Thomas (+1400) at FanDuel and McIlroy (+1500) at DraftKings.

The biggest move on the odds board has been Jason Day, who opened +3000 at DraftKings and is now +2000. Jon Rahm has dropped from +1600 to +1400 at FanDuel while Xander Schauffele‘s odds have risen from +1700 to +2000 at FanDuel.

Rising up the odds board this week following his win at the PGA Championship was Collin Morikawa (+2500), who challenges the top spot with Justin Thomas in TheLines’ golf power rankings. Dropping way down the board is past TPC Boston event winner Rickie Fowler (2015), who has best odds of +6600 at DraftKings. Fowler’s missed cut at the PGA Championship and recency bias has led to his low point on the odds board.

When the FedExCup Playoff event was played at TPC Boston in 2018 as the Dell Technologies Championship, Dustin Johnson (+800) was the favorite. This week Johnson is +2000.

The top 70 players in the FedExCup standings following the Northern Trust Open will advance to next week’s BMW Championship at Olympia Fields in Illinois.

Of note, Brooks Koepka withdrew from the Northern Trust on Wednesday due to lingering hip and knee injuries. He is likely to be back for the US Open, which begins on Aug. 31, but that is not yet confirmed.

Bettors loving Morikawa

DraftKings Sportsbook released data on Wednesday afternoon that showed Morikawa getting 8% of the handle for the Northern Trust. Also, 6% of the bets taken were on the PGA Championship winner. Here is a look at other golfers who bettors were liking to perform well in Boston.

  • Jason Day (7% handle, 5% of bets)
  • Bryson Dechambeau (7% handle, 4% of bets)
  • Matthew Wolff (6% handle, 5% of bets)
  • Tony Finau (6% handle, 5% of bets)
  • Justin Thomas (5% handle, 4% of bets)
  • Rory McIlroy (5% handle, 3% of bets)

Northern Trust odds

Outright Winner

Game
08/20/2020
(Eastern Time)
(EST)
Bryson Dechambeau
Bet now
+1100
Bet now
+1200
Bet now
+1100
Justin Thomas
Bet now
+1300
Bet now
+1400
Bet now
+1200
Rory McIlroy
Bet now
+1500
Bet now
+1400
Bet now
+1400
Jon Rahm
Bet now
+1500
Bet now
+1400
Bet now
+1400
Jason Day
Bet now
+2000
Bet now
+2100
Bet now
+2000
Dustin Johnson
Bet now
+2000
Bet now
+2400
Bet now
+2000
Xander Schauffele
Bet now
+2000
Bet now
+2000
Bet now
+2000
Patrick Reed
Bet now
+2200
Bet now
+2100
Bet now
+2500
Collin Morikawa
Bet now
+2500
Bet now
+2200
Bet now
+2200
Daniel Berger
Bet now
+3000
Bet now
+3300
Bet now
+3500
Webb Simpson
Bet now
+3000
Bet now
+3000
Bet now
+3000
Patrick Cantlay
Bet now
+3300
Bet now
+3200
Bet now
+3000
Tony Finau
Bet now
+3500
Bet now
+3000
Bet now
+3000
Paul Casey
Bet now
+4500
Bet now
+4500
Bet now
+4000
Hideki Matsuyama
Bet now
+4500
Bet now
+4000
Bet now
+4000
Adam Scott
Bet now
+4500
Bet now
+4000
Bet now
+3500
Tiger Woods
Bet now
+4500
Bet now
+3500
Bet now
+3500
Abraham Ancer
Bet now
+5500
Bet now
+6500
Bet now
+6000
Matthew Fitzpatrick
Bet now
+5500
Bet now
+6000
Bet now
+5500
Tommy Fleetwood
Bet now
+5500
Bet now
+4800
Bet now
+4500
Tyrrell Hatton
Bet now
+5500
Bet now
+4600
Bet now
+5500
Billy Horschel
Bet now
+5500
Bet now
+5000
Bet now
+5000
Viktor Hovland
Bet now
+5500
Bet now
+6000
Bet now
+5500
Scottie Scheffler
Bet now
+5500
Bet now
+5000
Bet now
+5000
Justin Rose
Bet now
+6000
Bet now
+6000
Bet now
+5000
Sungjae Im
Bet now
+6000
Bet now
+5000
Bet now
+5500
Matthew Wolff
Bet now
+6000
Bet now
+4100
Bet now
+5000
Rickie Fowler
Bet now
+6600
Bet now
+5500
Bet now
+5500

Top player stats at TPC Boston

Power players have risen towards the top at TPC Boston, and the last four events there have also seen players that rank highly in birdie-or-better stats do well. The last four winners ranked 7-1-2-13 entering the event.

Top-15 players in Birdie-or-Better stats in this field include:

  • DeChambeau
  • Simpson
  • Thomas
  • Hatton
  • Cantlay
  • Berger
  • Scheffler
  • Reed
  • McIlroy
  • Johnson
  • Rahm
  • Finau
  • Schauffele

Using Fantasy National stats at TPC Boston, McIlroy (26 starts) has the best Strokes Gained stats from the tee. He ranks No. 1 in SG: Total and tied with Paul Casey (12 rounds) followed by Louis Oosthuizen (12 rounds) and Johnson (24 rounds).

McIlroy is No. 2 in SG: Tee-to-Green, trailing only Johnson. Adam Scott (24 rounds) is No. 3.

Strokes Gained: Off-the-Tee shows Johnson, Bubba Watson (22 rounds), Scott and McIlroy the leaders.

Johnson, Scott, McIlroy, and Gary Woodland (24 rounds) rank 1-2-T3 in SG: Ball Striking.

Strokes Gained: Approach and look who’s on top: Tiger Woods (12 rounds) followed by Woodland, Scott, Casey and Patrick Cantlay (8 rounds).

Rank
DFS Provider
Bonus
Features
Click To Claim
1
$520
Total Bonus Offer
$20 Free Play On First Deposit
Plus 20% deposit match up to $500
#1 in Daily Fantasy Sports
To Claim: Click Play Now
2
$5 Free
No Deposit Required
$5 Free
$5 More On Deposit
Watch Sports, Play Fantasy, Win Cash!
To Claim: Click Play Now

Players to watch at better prices

Jason Day (+2200 BetMGM): Day has three top-10 finishes at TPC Boston in 11 events and two more top-15 finishes since 2015. His confidence is strong after he led the PGA Championship field in approach play.

“If my putter gets hot, I’m going to win pretty soon,” Day said. He will enjoy the Bentgrass greens, and oddsmakers have taken note. DraftKings Sportsbook dropped Day from +3000 to +2000.

Patrick Cantlay (+3300 DraftKings): Cantlay’s SG: Approach numbers are strong in two appearances at TPC Boston, finishing T24 in 2018 and T12 in 2017. Cantaly is capable of going off on birdies, ranking No. 6 on Tour. He also has the fifth-best adjusted SG: Approach numbers in 2020.

Tony Finau (+3500 DraftKings): Finau finished T4 at the PGA Championship, adding to his PGA Tour-best 31 top-10 finishes on Tour since 2016. His SG: Approach and Tee-to-Green stats were top-3 at the PGA Championship and Finau T4 here in 2018 with all four rounds in the 60s.

Hideki Matsuyama (+4500 DraftKings): In 2018, Matsuyama shot a 65 on Sunday here to finish T4. His SG: Driving, Tee-to-Green and Approach are all top-10 at TPC Boston in 20 rounds.

Paul Casey (+4500 FanDuel): Casey contended throughout the PGA Championship and tied for second. The stats above show his game is Taylor Made for success at TPC Boston. Casey had the lead on Sunday here in 2016 before finishing second, and finished T4 in 2017.

Adam Scott (+4500 DraftKings): Scott has top-10 finishes in 13 starts at TPC Boston including his first PGA Tour win in 2003. The Aussie’s restart on Tour was delayed due to the pandemic, but all systems were go off the tee at the PGA Championship in his only event since the Tour restart in June.

Tyrell Hatton (+5500 DraftKings): A winner at Arnold Palmer designed Bay Hill this year, Hatton not only makes plenty of birdies, but is strong on approach shots. His approach play was very good at the PGA Championship, but poor putting cost him in missing the cut. If his putter gets hot, like most any quality player, he’ll be a serious contender. Hatton is top-20 in the FedExCup Standings despite just eight starts this PGA Tour season. In his only visit to TPC Boston in 2018, Hatton finished T12. But dig deeper and you’ll see he shot 63 on Friday and was tied for second through 36 and 54 holes before fading Sunday.

Gary Woodland (+7000): Few recent major champions get overlooked like Woodland. Consider his top-tier SG stats in 24 rounds at TPC Boston ranking top-5 in SG: Tee-to-Green, Off-the-Tee, Approach and Ball Striking. Woodland has finished top-25 in four straight events here since 2015.

Of the Players to Watch mentioned, FanDuel odds to win the FedExCup are:

  • Day (+4200) – FedExCup Standings No. 45
  • Cantlay (+4500) – FedExCup No. 32
  • Finau (+4500) – FedExCup No. 23
  • Matsuyama (+5000) – FedExCup No. 18
  • Casey (+13000) – FedExCup No. 55
  • Scott (+10000) – FedExCup No. 36
  • Hatton (+5000) – FedExCup No. 19
  • Woodland (+9000) – FedExCup No. 33

Young guns in strong current form playing TPC Boston for the first time:

DraftKings odds to win Northern Trust:

  • Cameron Champ (+9000) – FedExCup No. 20
  • Matthew Fitzpatrick (+5500) – FedExCup No. 51
  • Max Homa (+22500) – FedExCup No. 57
  • Viktor Hovland +5500) – FedExCup No. 28
  • Sungjae Im (+6000) – FedExCup No. 5
  • Collin Morikawa (+2500) – FedExCup No. 2
  • Joakim Niemann (+17500) – FedExCup No. 26
  • Doc Redman (+14000) – FedExCup No. 60
  • Scottie Scheffler (+5500) – FedExCup No. 24
  • Matthew Wolff (+6000) – FedExCup No. 34
FairwayJay Avatar
Written by
FairwayJay

FairwayJay is a leading national sports and gaming analyst and is recognized as one of the sports industry's most insightful professionals. Jay has pursued his passions and maintained a pulse on the sports, gaming and poker industries while living in Las Vegas for nearly two decades. He's been a regular featured guest on sports and gaming radio shows, podcasts and produces sports betting and related industry articles and content for various sites and sources.

View all posts by FairwayJay