NLDS Game 3 Odds, Picks, Predictions: Why I Bet Mets Moneyline Vs. Phillies

The Philadelphia Phillies and the New York Mets resume their rivalry in Game 3 of their best-of-five series on Tuesday at Citi Field. First pitch is set for 5:08 p.m. ET (FS1), with veterans Aaron Nola and Sean Manaea facing off. Let’s examine the odds for Game 3 of the NLDS, with Philadelphia evening things up on Sunday.

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NLDS game 3 odds: Mets vs. Phillies moneyline, spread, total

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Will Manaea Outduel Nola?

On the surface, Philadelphia’s lineup has a sizeable edge against New York’s southpaw. Manaea has surrendered a 1.027 OPS against these Phillies in 97 at-bats. Bryce Harper and Nick Castellanos have totaled a .909 slugging percentage, including four home runs.

In his three outings against the Phillies this season, he has a 5.40 ERA and 5.43 FIP, with two splendid starts and a forgettable performance in the London Series sandwiched in the middle.

Since the end of July, Manaea has modified his pitch mix, escalating his sinker usage while all but eliminating his cutter. It has paid dividends, with his peripherals (3.75 xERA, 19.2% strikeout-to-walk ratio) improving substantially after his subpar first half (4.29, 14%).

Conversely, Nola has carved out stretches of dominance during his career. Nevertheless, he is not the same pitcher away from Citizens Bank Park. This season, he’s compiled a 3.29 ERA and 3.76 FIP in Philly — juxtaposed with a 3.87 ERA and 4.14 FIP on the road.

Nola’s arsenal centers around his knuckle curveball (32.9%). The Mets boast the sixth-highest wOBA versus right-handers who feature this pitch type, including home runs from Brandon Nimmo and Francisco Alvarez versus Nola on Sept. 13. He was sent to the showers at Citi Field after letting up six earned runs in 4.1 innings.

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Pick For NLDS Game 3 Odds

New York’s bullpen was more trustworthy over the second half, compiling the seventh-best FIP in MLB. Philadelphia’s relievers regressed, ranking No. 20 over that span. I’m willing to back the home underdog on the full-game moneyline.

Good luck with your bets for NLDS Game 3 odds!