2023 NL Cy Young Odds: Resumes For Final Four Vying For The Award

Written By Derek Wagner on August 31, 2023

The MLB season enters its final month, and the NL Cy Young Odds have begun to tighten. Let’s examine the top candidates – Diamondbacks starter Zac Gallen, Braves strikeout machine Spencer Strider, Cubs ace Justin Steele and Padres pitcher Blake Snell – and their paths to winning the award.

NL CY YOUNG ODDS:

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STATISTICAL LEADERS

Below is a table showing where each of the top NL Cy Young candidates sit in key statistical categories. For reference, three of the previous five winners of NL Cy Young lead the league in ERA.

Pitcher	IP	FanGraphs WAR	ERA	FIP	Strikeouts
Blake Snell	149	2.8	2.60	3.74	193
Spencer Strider	153.1	4.7	3.46	2.79	236
Zac Gallen	173.1	4.0	3.32	3.36	182
Justin Steele	144	3.9	2.69	3.09	141

The case for Spencer strider

Strider is a compelling case, given that he’s leaps and bounds ahead of the other candidates in strikeouts. He’s already logged an incredible 236 strikeouts and is on pace to finish at about 290. If he could manage to hit 300, he’ll join 19 other pitchers who have hit the mark.

He’s also coming off the best three-game stretch of the season, where he’s logged 21 innings pitched while allowing one earned run and striking out 25. That stretch did come against the Giants and the Mets, however, two of the lower-scoring teams in the National League.

Perhaps it’s the jump start he needed for a strong finish to the season. He squares off against the Dodgers Thursday with the potential to shift NL Cy Young odds if he shuts them down. His next two starts come against the Cardinals and the Phillies.

Best available Strider odds:

the case for Justin steele

Steele’s win on Aug. 29 against the Brewers saw his NL CY Young odds sliced in half at numerous sportsbooks. He was 30-1 before first pitch, and after striking out eight and notching his 15th win, his odds shrank to as low as 12-1. With that in mind, Steele isn’t a big strikeout pitcher, so his route to winning CY Young has to come elsewhere.

He may need to surpass Snell for the best ERA in the National League or maintain his current ERA to win. In 2018, Jacob deGrom bested Max Scherzer for the NL Cy Young by posting a better WAR than Scherzer and leading the NL in ERA with a 1.70 clip. This was with Scherzer posting 31 more strikeouts than deGrom.

The Cubs close out the season with a series against the Braves and a series against the Brewers. Should Steele get a start against both, it could leave a great final impression on voters as the season wraps up, especially if the Cubs overtake the Brewers in the NL Central.

For reference, Steele has been particularly dominant against the Brewers this year, posting a 1.50 ERA in three starts and striking out 21 batters in 18 innings. If the Cubs need wins in the season’s final series, they’ll likely manipulate the rotation so that Steele gets one last crack at Milwaukee.

Best available Steele odds:

the case for Blake SNELL

Snell is nearly two wins behind Strider in the WAR category, so ideally, he closes the gap on Strider. Since 2013, we’ve only seen one NL Cy Young winner finish 1.5 wins or more behind the WAR leader. Jake Arrieta won in 2015 while posting a 7.0 WAR and Clayton Kershaw boasted an 8.6 WAR. Arrieta also posted the second-lowest ERA that year at 1.77 and notched 22 wins.

If Snell can tighten the gap and maintain his league-leading ERA of 2.60, he certainly will have a case. Sandy Alcantara won the award last season despite finishing third in WAR and accumulating the fourth most strikeouts. He did, however, claim the second-best ERA at 2.28.

Best available Snell odds:

THE CASE FOR Zac GALLEN

Gallen has a month to tighten the gap on Strider in WAR and lower his ERA. The 0.7 difference in WAR isn’t an insurmountable amount, but he’ll need the Braves ace to get shelled once or twice.

Strider got roughed up during a five-game stretch from July to August that caused MLB.com voters to ding him when they polled for the award in the middle of the month. In fact, the poll results had Gallen finishing first in NL Cy Young and Strider finishing in fourth. Since the poll, Gallen was tagged for six earned runs in his most recent start against the Dodgers.

Best available Gallen odds:

FINAL THOUGHTS ON NL CY YOUNG ODDS

This market seemingly changes with every pitcher’s start. Steele’s odds shrank after his recent start, and we’ve seen Gallen’s odds increase after his subpar performance against the Dodgers. There could still be some value on Steele given how the end of the season lines up with the Brewers to close the season and Steele’s low ERA.

Best of luck betting NL Cy Young Odds!

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