Browns Odds & Player Props: Nick Chubb May Be Primed For Huge Season

With NFL Week 1 odds rapidly approaching, the clock is ticking for bettors to finalize their season-long player prop wagers. With that in mind, this breakdown centers around Browns tailback Nick Chubb and his 2023 outlook. The best available number on Chubb’s total touchdowns prop, as it concerns the over, is currently . Will the four-time Pro Bowler clear his paydirt market in consecutive seasons — among an assortment of other Cleveland Browns odds? Let’s dig in.

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Browns odds flashback

Just over a year ago, Chubb’s scoring prop was an oddity — pun intended. The majority of operators were set at 10.5 TDs, but FanDuel Sportsbook found itself at 8.5 with vig towards the over. It was a rogue number and may have been an odds error at that. Trading teams certainly aren’t immune to such. Nevertheless, Chubb’s TD market reached 11.5 the season prior, and he managed to find the end zone eight times.

Regardless of why FanDuel showcased a bit of nonconformist behavior, Chubb’s 12 rushing scores delivered on both accounts. He didn’t miss any regular season games, either, which wasn’t the case in 2021.

His production withstood the Browns falling short of expectations, tallying seven victories after their NFL win total closed 7.5 (-140). The market is more bullish on Cleveland this time around, which is reflected in the / win total. For bettors who are just as optimistic, the best available price on Chubb & Co. among AFC North odds is . They’re one of the league’s trendier worst-to-first divisional candidates.

This sentiment has plenty to do with former Texans quarterback Deshaun Watson undergoing positive regression. He’s prepping for his first full season in “The Land,” following a 12-game suspension to kick off the 2022 campaign. From Week 13 onward, Watson amassed the second-lowest EPA per dropback among qualified QBs.

Assuming Browns coach Kevin Stefanski opens up the passing game, will Watson make Chubb’s TD prop bettors sweat?

remain confident in chubb

Let’s start on the surface. Playing behind a top-10 offensive line, Chubb’s backfield presence is expected to only increase. Kareem Hunt, who ran for 14 touchdowns in his three years with the Browns, wasn’t resigned. As a result, Jerome Ford will presumably take Hunt’s spot on the depth chart if healthy. Despite presenting enough upside there, the second-year pro won’t vulture goal-line work from Chubb.

The less certain variable is Watson. Cleveland ranked No. 25 in passing rate last season, yet that percentage will inevitably increase if the three-time Pro Bowler gains comfortability — and reverts to his old form. Keep in mind that the Browns faced the toughest schedule of opposing defenses in 2022. The combination of Jacoby Brissett and an inaccurate Watson didn’t inspire much confidence in that regard.

This season, their offense will presumably face a league-average slate. Not only should Cleveland rise from an already above-average EPA, but those who back the Browns’ odds on a week-by-week basis could very well benefit in the process.

Whether Stefanski utilizes the wide or zone rushing scheme on a given play, the Georgia product is proficient at exploiting cutback lanes that come about. Ensuing naked boots and play-action passes are generally effective under Stefanski. Injury aside, Chubb’s ceiling in the scoring department should survive a big year from Watson — especially with increased opportunities in the red zone.

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