Stanley Cup Final MVP Odds: Mitch Marner Continues to Hold Top Spot Entering Game 4

As the NHL Stanley Cup Final continues to unfold, one of the most popular bets at this point in the series is the Conn Smythe Trophy, awarded annually to the most valuable player of the Stanley Cup Playoffs. And as has been the case for the vast majority of this series so far, Vegas Golden Knights star Mitch Marner has emerged as the clear favorite for the award over any member of the Carolina Hurricanes.

• Mitch Marner (Vegas Golden Knights): -210 via FanDuel
• Taylor Hall (Carolina Hurricanes): +500 via FanDuel
• Logan Stankoven (Carolina Hurricanes): +650 via FanDuel
• Jackson Blake (Carolina Hurricanes): +1400 via FanDuel
• Nikolaj Ehlers (Carolina Hurricanes): +3500 via FanDuel
• Frederik Andersen (Carolina Hurricanes): +6500 via FanDuel
• Brett Howden (Vegas Golden Knights): +8000 via FanDuel

What’s most interesting is that Marner was already the favorite before Game 3, but he’s become a much heavier favorite entering Game 4 after Vegas took a 2-1 series lead, and he made the clutch goal to win in double overtime to cap off a hat trick performance.

That indicates two things.

First, oddsmakers believe Marner has separated himself as the most likely Conn Smythe winner if the Golden Knights ultimately win the Stanley Cup. Second, it suggests sportsbooks believe Vegas has established a meaningful advantage in the series itself. While a 2-1 lead is far from insurmountable, the betting market is clearly reflecting the Golden Knights’ current position.

Marner has been one of the most productive offensive players throughout the postseason and continues to be the face of Vegas’ championship push. If the Golden Knights continue winning and ultimately lift the Stanley Cup, it’s becoming increasingly difficult to envision a scenario in which Marner doesn’t also take home playoff MVP honors.

That doesn’t mean the race is over, however.

The Hurricanes are only down 2-1 in the series, and a win in Game 4 would immediately tie things at two games apiece and completely change the outlook of both the Stanley Cup Final and the Conn Smythe race.

If Carolina is going to make a comeback, Taylor Hall currently sits as the Hurricanes’ most likely candidate to win the award. Hall has been a major contributor throughout the postseason and has the type of veteran narrative that often resonates with voters.

However, Logan Stankoven is closing the gap.

The young forward has been one of Carolina’s most impactful players throughout the playoffs and continues to build a compelling case of his own. If the Hurricanes rally from behind and win the series, it wouldn’t be surprising to see Stankoven emerge as the favorite on Carolina’s side of the race.

Jackson Blake also remains in the mix at +1400, while Nikolaj Ehlers sits further back at +3500. Both players would likely need huge performances down the stretch to seriously challenge Hall or Stankoven, but with potentially four games still remaining, there is still time for the race to evolve.

One of the more interesting developments is how far Frederik Andersen has fallen down the board.

Earlier in the Final, Andersen appeared to be Carolina’s strongest challenger to Marner. Now, at +6500, the market has shifted away from goaltenders and toward skaters. That makes sense given the high-scoring nature of this series and the offensive performances that have largely defined the biggest moments so far.

It’s also noteworthy that Brett Howden is the next Golden Knight listed behind Marner, all the way down at +8000. That gap tells you everything you need to know about how sportsbooks currently view the race. Unlike Carolina, which has multiple skaters still competing for positioning behind Hall and Stankoven, Vegas has one overwhelmingly clear candidate.

At this point, the market is essentially saying that if the Golden Knights win the Stanley Cup, Marner is highly likely to win the Conn Smythe Trophy as well.

Ultimately, the betting markets are telling a very clear story entering Game 4. Vegas has control of the series, Marner has control of the Conn Smythe race, and Carolina’s best path back into both conversations starts with a win later this week. Should the Hurricanes even the series, expect these odds to shift once again. But for now, Marner remains the player to beat.