Penguins vs. Flyers Prediction, Odds & Props for Sept. 30: Flyers Bully Way to Win
The Pittsburgh Penguins make the trip to the City of Brotherly Love to face the Philadelphia Flyers in a Metropolitan Division matchup to open the season Wednesday night. We share our Penguins vs. Flyers prediction, break down the odds, and offer our picks for the game.
Pittsburgh finished second in the Metropolitan Division in 2025-26. Their season ended with a thud as they were downed in six games in the opening round by the Flyers. Meanwhile, Philadelphia was third in the Metropolitan Division. After beating the Penguins in six games in the opening round, the Flyers were swept in the second round by the eventual champions, the Carolina Hurricanes. The Flyers have won six of the last 10 meetings between the teams. That includes a 1-0 overtime win at home in the most recent matchup on April 29, 2026.
Pittsburgh Penguins vs. Philadelphia Flyers Odds
Last season was a solid one for the Penguins. They finished the season 41-25-16 for 98 points. That left them second in the Metropolitan Division. However, they couldn’t build momentum and fell in six games in the opening round to the Flyers.
Philadelphia went 43-27-12 to finish with 98 points in the 2025-26 season. The Flyers finished third in the Metropolitan Division and earned a playoff spot. They beat Pittsburgh in six games in the opening round of the playoffs. Meanwhile, they were swept by the eventual champions, the Carolina Hurricanes, in the second round.
Let’s take a look at the latest odds for this contest, courtesy of Fanatics Sportsbook.
- Spread: Flyers -1.5 (+180) / Penguins +1.5 (-225)
- Moneyline: Flyers (-140) / Penguins (+115)
- Total (Over/Under): Over 6.5 (+110) / Under 6.5 (-135)
This game shows Philadelphia as a solid favorite in the matchup between division and geographic rivals. Pittsburgh won the regular season series by a 2-0-2 margin. That helped them earn the second seed in the Metropolitan Division over Philadelphia. The Flyers own a 58.33% implied probability to win this contest.
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- Under is 5-1-1 in Penguins last 7 vs. Eastern Conference foes
- Under is 5-1-1 in Penguins last 7 vs. Metropolitan Division opponents
The Penguins chose to roll it back one more time with their aging core, hoping they can conjure up some magic. That means building around Sidney Crosby (39), Evgeni Malkin (40), Erik Karlsson (36), Bryan Rust (34) and Rickard Rakell (33) with other pieces. Whether it pays dividends for a franchise that hasn’t won a playoff round since 2017-18 remains to be seen.
Pittsburgh saw more talent leave than they brought in via free agency this season. Defensemen Ryan Shea (Edmonton) and Connor Clifton (Boston) moved on in the offseason. So did forwards Anthony Mantha (New Jersey) and Noel Acciari (Florida) along with goaltender Stuart Skinner (Winnipeg), taking pieces out of last season’s squad.
Pittsburgh’s biggest acquisitions were defensemen Trevor van Riemsdyk (Washington) and Declan Carlile (Tampa Bay) to bolster the blueline. The Penguins also added center Andrei Kuzmenko on a one-year deal from the Kings. Pittsburgh picked up Nicholas Robertson in a trade with Toronto as general manager Kyle Dubas worked a deal with his former team.
The Penguins finished the 2025-26 campaign 3rd in the league in goals per game with 3.54 per contest. Pittsburgh finished 24th in goals against by allowing 3.15 goals per game last year. The Penguins were good with the man advantage, ranking seventh in the league by converting 24.1% of their opportunities with the man advantage. Meanwhile, they were 6th in the league in penalty killing. The Penguins successfully navigated 81.4% of their shorthanded situations.
In addition, Sergey Murashov (1-1-2, 2.56 GAA, .897 save percentage, shutout in five appearances, four starts, in 2025-26) is the projected starter in goal for the Penguins. Watch in case Arturs Silovs (19-12-8, 3.07 GAA, .887 save percentage, two shutouts in 39 appearances, 38 starts) gets the call.
Flyers Betting Trends
- Under is 7-0-2 in Flyers last 9 after scoring 2 goals or less in their previous game
- Under is 7-0-1 in Flyers last 8 when their opponent allows 2 goals or less in their previous game
- Under is 3-0-1 in Flyers last 4 home games
The Flyers will similar to the team that we saw last season, at least in the top of their forward group. Their biggest move was their attempt to sign Leo Carlsson to a five-year, $90 million offer sheet but the Ducks matched it. That left the Flyers tinkering around the edges. Their biggest signing was Noel Acciari, who is a bottom-six guy at this point of his career, from the Penguins.
Philadelphia struggled offensively last season. The Flyers finished the year 21st in goals per game by averaging 2.93 goals per contest. Philadelphia was 9th in goals allowed by giving up an average of 2.92 goals per game in 2025-26. The Flyers were dead last in the league with the man advantage as they converted 15.7% of their power play opportunities. Philadelphia struggled in the penalty killing department, finishing 22nd as they successfully navigated 77.6% of their shorthanded situations.
Meanwhile, Dan Vladar (29-14-7, 2.42 GAA, .906 save percentage in 52 appearances, 51 starts) is the expected starter between the pipes for Philadelphia.
Penguins vs. Flyers Prediction: Under 6.5 (-135)
Pittsburgh was an excellent offensive unit a year ago. The thing is, it’s another year of wear and tear on their aging veterans and Father Time is still undefeated at last check. Rust is on injured reserve with an upper body injury, taking one of their weapons out of the mix already. There’s a discordant note between Malkin and Dubas, with the GM saying that he wasn’t doing the “day-by-day, year-by-year thing” with him anymore.
Vladar was stellar after taking over the #1 goaltender job for the Flyers last season. He kept the Penguins in check in the postseason. I fully expect him to shut the Penguins down and with the Flyers a mediocre attacking team themselves, this is a lower-scoring matchup. Therefore, take the under in this contest.
More Penguins vs. Flyers Picks, Props and Best Bets
- Sidney Crosby, Anytime Goal Scorer: FanDuel, +210 – Crosby had a bit of a down season, but that’s to be expected as he’s in his late 30s at this point. He still put up 29 goals and 74 points for the Penguins last year in 68 games. That means he was still a point per game player at age 38. Now, Crosby has lit the lamp 654 times in regular season play in his career. Do you know what team he’s tormented the most? If you said the Flyers, give yourself a gold star. Crosby has 60 goals and 79 assists in 93 career games against the Broad Street Bullies. In addition, he has 29 goals in 45 games in the City of Brotherly Love.If you’re going to bank on a Penguin denting the twine, you might as well back their captain in this contest.
- Rickard Rakell, Penguins Over 2.5 Shots: FanDuel, +130 Rakell was hot down the stretch in the regular season last year and carried that into the playoffs. Fourteen of the 24 goals he potted in the regular season came in March and April. He added a goal and three assists on 16 shots on goal (28 shot attempts) in six games in the postseason. Rakell finished with 166 shots on goal in 60 games last season. We look for him to continue his late season push with a couple shots on net in this one.
- Travis Konecny, Flyers Over 2.5 Shots on Goal: FanDuel, +130 Konecny was one of the top scoring threats for an offensively challenged Flyers squad a season ago. He finished second on the team with 27 goals and led the team with 68 points. In addition, he was third on the team in shot attempts (326) and second in shots on goal (168) in 2025-26. We only need two shots to cash this prop and I think Geekie gets it done.
New Users – Get $250 in Bonus Bets when you wager $5 for 5 days Penguins vs. Flyers Broadcast Info
- Date: Wednesday, September 30, 2026
- Start Time: 7:30 pm ET
- Location: Xfinity Mobile Arena, Philadelphia, Pennsylvania
- TV and Streaming Options: TNT, TruTV
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