Penguins vs. Capitals Prediction, Odds & Picks for Oct. 7: Ovechkin Outduels Crosby
The Pittsburgh Penguins make the trip to the nation’s capital to face the Washington Capitals in a Metropolitan Division matchup Wednesday night. We share our Penguins vs. Capitals prediction, break down the odds, and offer our picks for the game.
Pittsburgh fell 3-2 at home to Winnipeg Monday night in their previous contest. Washington lost 3-1 on the road by Tampa Bay in their previous contest Saturday night. The Capitals claimed six of the last 10 meetings between the teams. That includes a 3-0 win at home in the most recent matchup on April 12, 2026.
Pittsburgh Penguins vs. Washington Capitals Odds
Pittsburgh opened the season with a world of momentum as they smashed the Philadelphia Flyers 7-0 on the road in their opener. Meanwhile, the Penguins followed that up with a 6-5 overtime triumph over Montreal Canadiens at home before falling to Winnipeg.
Washington opened their season with a solid 5-2 road win over the defending champs, the Hurricanes, Friday night. The Capitals sputtered in the second game of their back-to-back set, falling 3-1 to the Tampa Bay Lightning Saturday night on the road..
Let’s take a look at the latest odds for this contest, courtesy of Fanatics Sportsbook.
- Spread: Capitals -1.5 (+150) / Penguins +1.5 (-185)
- Moneyline: Capitals (-165) / Penguins (+135)
- Total (Over/Under): Over 6.5 (-115) / Under 6.5 (-105)
This game shows Washington as a solid favorite in the matchup between division and geographic rivals. Washington won the regular season series in 2025-26 by a 2-1-0 margin. They swept a home-and-home set late in the season. The Capitals own a 62.26% implied probability to win this contest.
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- Under is 7-0 in the last 7 meetings in Washington
- Underdog is 0-5 in the last five meetings in this series
The Penguins chose to roll it back one more time with their aging core, hoping to conjure up some magic. That means building around Sidney Crosby (39), Evgeni Malkin (40), Erik Karlsson (36), Bryan Rust (34) and Rickard Rakell (33) with other pieces. Whether it pays dividends for a franchise that hasn’t won a playoff round since 2017-18 remains to be seen.
Pittsburgh started the season strong, tallying 13 goals in their first two games of the year, both wins. However, the Penguins were handcuffed by the Jets in their previous clash Monday night. Ben Kindel (his second) and Declan Carlile (his second) scored for the Penguins in the contest. Both Kindel and Carlile each had an assist, giving them two point nights. Sergei Murashov stopped 31 shots for the Penguins, who were outshot 34-32, in the loss.
The Penguins entered Tuesday night 3rd in the league in goals per game with five per contest. Pittsburgh stands tied for 16th in goals against by allowing 2.67 goals per game last year. The Penguins are good with the man advantage, ranking sixth in the league by converting 40% of their opportunities with the man advantage. Meanwhile, they are tied for 1st in the league in penalty killing. The Penguins successfully navigate 100% of their shorthanded situations.
In addition, Arturs Silovs (2-0-0, 2.47GAA, .886 save percentage, shutout) is the projected starter in goal for the Penguins. Watch in case Sergei Murashov (0-1-0, 3.10 GAA, .912 save percentage) gets the call.
Capitals Betting Trends
- Capitals are 4-0 in their last 4 vs. Metropolitan Division opponents
- Capitals are 5-1 in their last 6 home games
- Capitals are 5-1 in their last 6 vs. Eastern Conference foes
Washington enters this contest having split their first two contests on the road. The Capitals rolled past the Carolina Hurricanes on the road in their season opener. However, playing the second game of a back-to-back set seemed to suck the life out of them as they were stifled by the Tampa Bay Lightning. Justin Sourdif had the lone goal for the Capitals in the contest. Charlie Lindgren made 27 saves for Washington, who was outshot 30-21, in the loss.
Washington stands 16th in goals per game by averaging three goals per contest in the early going. Washington is 12th in goals allowed by giving up an average of 2.50 goals per game this season. The Capitals are 13th in the league with the man advantage as they convert 25% of their power play opportunities. Washington is above average in the penalty killing department, ranking 10th as they successfully navigate 88.9% of their shorthanded situations.
Meanwhile, Logan Thompson (1-0-0, 2.00 GAA, .939 save percentage) is the expected starter between the pipes for Washington.
Penguins vs. Capitals Prediction: Under 6.5 (-105)
Pittsburgh was an excellent offensive unit a year ago. The thing is, it’s another year of wear and tear on their aging veterans and Father Time is still undefeated at last check. Bryan Rust is on injured reserve with an upper body injury, taking one of their weapons out of the mix already. There’s a discordant note between Malkin and Dubas, with the GM saying that he wasn’t doing the “day-by-day, year-by-year thing” with him anymore.
Thompson was solid in his first appearance of the season for Washington. The Capitals are going to be emotional with this being the final home opener for Alev Ovechkin, who announced he’ll retire at the end of the year. These teams play lower scoring contests at the Capital One Arena for one reason or another. Look for this to end up 3-2 or 4-2, winding up under the number by a hook.
More Penguins vs. Capitals Picks, Props and Best Bets
- Sidney Crosby, Anytime Goal Scorer: FanDuel, +230 Crosby had a bit of a down season, but that’s to be expected as he’s in his late 30s at this point. He still put up 29 goals and 74 points for the Penguins last year in 68 games. That means he was still a point per game player at age 38. He has two assists in three games this season, despite 10 shots on goal and 16 shot attempts.Now, Crosby has 654 goals in regular season play in his career. He does a fair amount of damage against Washington. Crosby has 35 goals and 62 assists in 77 career games against the Capitals. In addition, he has 45 points (18 goals, 27 assists) in 41 games in the nation’s capital.If you’re going to bank on a Penguin denting the twine, you might as well back their captain in this contest.
- Alex Ovechkin, Capitals Over 0.5 Points: FanDuel, -162 As we mentioned before, this season is the end of the line for Ovechkin, the league’s all-time regular season goal scorer. He has 929 career goals in the regular season. In the first two games of the year, he has an assist with only one shot on goal and five shot attempts. Ovechkin scored at least 30 goals in all but one season during his career in the NHL. Even in the COVID-shortened campaign, he mustered 24 goals in 45 games. In his career, he has 44 goals and 36 assists in 83 regular season games against the Penguins. In addition, he averages better than a point per game (865 points in 784 games) at the Capital One Arena in the regular season. He gets on the stat sheet here.
- Alex Tuch, Capitals Over 2.5 Shots on Goal: FanDuel, -130 Tuch had a good season last year with Buffalo but rather than sign him to a new deal, the Sabres traded him in the offseason to the Capitals. He scored at least 33 goals in three of the last four seasons before the deal. Tuch has two goals, five shots on goals and eight shot attempts so far on the year. He’ll have his chances in this contest.
New Users – Get $250 in Bonus Bets when you wager $5 for 5 days Penguins vs. Capitals Broadcast Info
- Date: Wednesday, October 7, 2026
- Start Time: 7:30 pm ET
- Location: Capital One Arena, Washington, D.C.
- TV and Streaming Options: TNT
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