Lightning vs. Golden Knights Prediction, Odds & Picks for Oct. 20: Vegas Wins at Home

Written By Chris Kubala | Published at October 20, 2026

Oct 4, 2026; Vancouver, British Columbia, CAN; Vegas Golden Knights forward Mark Stone (61) handles the puck against the Vancouver Canucks in the first period at Rogers Arena. Mandatory Credit: Bob Frid-Imagn Images

The Tampa Bay Lightning make the trip to the Silver State to face the Vegas Golden Knights in an interconference matchup Tuesday night. We share our Lightning vs. Golden Knights prediction, break down the odds, and offer our picks for the game.

Tampa Bay won 4-2 over the Vancouver Canucks at home Saturday night in their previous contest. Vegas routed the Pittsburgh Penguins 6-2 at home in their previous contest Saturday night. The Lightning have won six of the last 10 meetings between the teams. Meanwhile, Tampa Bay swept the season series last year and picked up a 6-3 road win in the most recent matchup on November 6, 2025.

Tampa Bay Lightning vs. Vegas Golden Knights Odds

Tampa Bay won for the sixth time in seven games as they doubled up the Canucks at home in their last game Saturday night. The Lightning improved to 6-2-0 on the season and stand second in the Atlantic Division standings. Meanwhile, they stand two points behind the Boston Bruins for the top spot.

Vegas has won eight of their first 10 games out of the gate after dispatching Pittsburgh Saturday night. The Golden Knights have three straight wins and victories in seven of their last eight games. In addition, they entered Tuesday with a three-point lead on Edmonton for the top spot in the Pacific Division.

Let’s take a look at the latest odds for this contest, courtesy of Fanatics Sportsbook.

Spread: Golden Knights -1.5 (+210) / Lightning +1.5 (-270)
Moneyline: Golden Knights (-110) / Lightning (-110)
Total (Over/Under): Over 6.5 (+105) / Under 6.5 (-125)

This game shows Vegas as a narrow favorite in the matchup of interconference foes. Both teams have gotten off to hot starts to the season. Tampa Bay has won five of the last six meetings, however. The Golden Knights own a 52.38% implied probability to win this contest.

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Lightning Betting Trends

Over is 5-0-1 in the last 6 meetings in Vegas
Over is 3-0-1 in Lightning last 4 games as an underdog

The Lightning is off a strong start and enters this contest with five wins in their last six games. The Lightning have done most of their damage at home, however, as they are just 1-2-0 as the visiting team. On Saturday night at home, they took care of business against the Canucks. Nikita Kucherov (his second and third goals of the season) tallied twice to lead Tampa Bay. Jake Guentzel (his fourth) and Pontus Holmberg (his second) each tallied as well in the victory. Dennis Hildeby stopped 12 shots for the Lightning, who owned a 35-14 advantage in shots on goal, in the win.

The Lightning entered Tuesday tied for 13th in the league in goals per game with 3.13 per contest. Tampa Bay stands 9th in goals against by allowing 2.63 goals per game last year. The Lightning are struggling with the man advantage, ranking 30th in the league by converting 10.7% of their opportunities with the man advantage. Meanwhile, they are 22nd in the league in penalty killing. The Lightning successfully navigate 75% of their shorthanded situations.

In addition, Andrei Vasilevskiy (4-2-0, 2.53 GAA, .885 save percentage) is the projected starter in goal for the Lightning. Dennis Hildeby (2-0-0, 2.01 GAA, .920 save percentage) is the backup goaltender.

Golden Knights Betting Trends

Over is 7-0 in Golden Knights last 7 after scoring 5 goals or more in their previous game
Over is 7-1-1 in Golden Knights last 9 vs. Eastern Conference teams
Over is 6-1-1 in Golden Knights last 8 meetings

Vegas enters this contest on a roll with seven wins in their last eight games. The Golden Knights improved to 5-1-0 at home on the season as they dropped the hammer on a struggling Pittsburgh squad Saturday. In that game, Vegas got goals from Rasmus Andersson (his second, Noah Hanifin (his second) and Mark Stone (his seventh) in the opening period.

Trevor Connelly (his fourth) and Shea Theodore (his second) each scored in the second period. Meanwhile, Brett Howden (his fourth) closed the scoring with a goal late in the third period. Adin Hill made 22 saves for Vegas, who was beaten 24-19 in terms of shots on goal, in the win.

Vegas stands 3rd in goals per game by averaging 4.10 goals per contest in the early going. Vegas is tied for 6th in goals allowed by giving up an average of 2.40 goals per game this season. The Golden Knights are 5th in the league with the man advantage as they convert 27.8% of their power play opportunities. Vegas is below average in the penalty killing department, ranking 24th as they successfully navigate 73.9% of their shorthanded situations.

Meanwhile, Carter Hart (4-2-0, 2.35 GAA, .911 save percentage) is the expected starter between the pipes for Vegas. If he doesn’t go, Adin Hill (4-0-0, 2.20 GAA, .905 save percentage) would be in net for the Golden Knights.

Lightning vs. Golden Knights Prediction: Over 6.5 (-105)

Vegas is firing on all cylinders offensively this season. The Golden Knights have 41 goals on the books in the opening 10 games of the season. Their average total is 6.5 goals a game. At home, Vegas has put up 21 goals in their five games this season, an average of 4.2 per contest.

On the flip side, while Tampa Bay is a little long in the tooth, they are still dangerous offensively. The Lightning are middle of the road so far this year but they are bound to start clicking sooner rather than later. In addition, Vasilevskiy has been susceptible in the early going as his numbers aren’t where they usually are by the time the season comes to a close. Both teams have dangerous forward groups. I could see this one being 3-3 at the end of regulation, which means the decider pushes it over the mark.

More Lightning vs. Golden Knights Picks, Props and Best Bets

Brandon Hagel, Lightning Over 2.5 Shots: Hard Rock, -125 Hagel is off to a hot start for the Lightning. He leads the team in goals (six) and points (11) as he has five assists to his credit. All six of his goals and nine of his points have come at even strength on the year.In addition, he’s had a ton of volume when it comes to firing rubber on the net. He recorded 38 shots and 62 shot attempts in the opening eight games of the year. Hagel fired at least three shots on goal in seven of his eight games on the year. Meanwhile, he has at least five shots in five of Tampa Bay’s eight games. He tests Vegas’ goaltending in this contest.

Jack Eichel, Golden Knights Over 0.5 Goals: FanDuel, +180 Eichel is off to a torrid start for the Golden Knights this season. He has five goals and 13 assists for 18 points in 10 games. Eichel has 28 shots on goal and 48 shot attempts on the books for the year.in addition, Eichel has found the net in four of his last seven games and two of the last three.He had a pair of assists in the opening five minutes against Pittsburgh Saturday night. The Golden Knights take advantage of shaky Lightning defensive zone play to put the puck in the net.
Mark Stone, Golden Knights Over 2.5 Shots on Goal: FanDuel, +158 Stone is rolling for the Golden Knights as well. He now has seven goals and seven assists for 14 points in the opening 10 games. Stone has 20 shots on goal this season and 34 shot attempts.In addition, Stone has recorded at least three shots on goal in four of his last eight games. With Tampa Bay sputtering on the road, he generates chances and puts a fair amount of rubber on net.

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