Canadiens vs. Capitals Prediction, Odds & Picks for Oct. 14: Take the Under
The Montreal Canadiens make the trip to the nation’s capital to face the Washington Capitals in an Eastern Conference matchup Wednesday night. We share our Canadiens vs. Capitals prediction, break down the odds, and offer our picks for the game.
Montreal downed Buffalo 4-3 in a shootout at home Tuesday night in their previous contest. Washington was dropped 4-2 on the road by Carolina in their previous contest Tuesday night. The Capitals have a 7-2-1 mark in the last 10 meetings between the teams. However, Montreal picked up a 6-2 win at home in the most recent matchup on February 28, 2026.
Montreal Canadiens vs. Washington Capitals Odds
Montreal won their season opener over Toronto, then promptly dropped three straight contests. The Canadiens rebounded with a pair of wins as they blanked Detroit. Meanwhile, they blew a two-goal lead against Buffalo before prevailing in a shootout Tuesday.
Washington started their season with three wins in their first four games. However, the Capitals limp into this third game in four nights here with back-to-back losses on the books. They fell 5-3 at home to Seattle Sunday before losing 4-2 to Carolina Tuesday night.
Let’s take a look at the latest odds for this contest, courtesy of Fanatics Sportsbook.
- Spread: Capitals -1.5 (+180) / Canadiens +1.5 (-225)
- Moneyline: Capitals (-130) / Canadiens (+110)
- Total (Over/Under): Over 6.5 (-115) / Under 6.5 (-105)
This game shows Washington as a slight favorite in the matchup between Eastern Conference rivals. Washington won the regular season series in 2025-26 by a 2-1-0 margin. Montreal did salvage the final meeting of the 2025-26 campaign. The Capitals own a 56.5% implied probability to win this contest.
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- Under is 4-0 in Canadiens last 4 games playing on 0 days of rest
- Under is 5-0 in the last 5 meetings in Washington
The Canadiens won their second straight game after a three-game slide as they edged Buffalo at home in a shootout Tuesday night. Montreal enters this game 3-2-1 on the year.
Against Buffalo Tuesday, Montreal got goals from Lane Hutson (his first), Cole Caufield (his third) and Josh Anderson (his second) in the contest. The Canadiens led 3-1 after 40 minutes but wound up in a shootout as Buffalo rallied to tie the score. In the shootout, Caufield, Alexandre Texier and Samuel Bolduc each scored to give the Canadiens two points. Meanwhile, Jacob Fowler made 14 saves for the Canadiens, who owned a 38-17 advantage in shots, in the win.
The Canadiens entered Tuesday night 19thin the league in goals per game with 2.83 per contest. Montreal stands 26th in goals against by allowing 3.67 goals per game last year. The Canadiens are good with the man advantage, ranking 26th in the league by converting 10% of their opportunities with the man advantage. Meanwhile, they are 17th in the league in penalty killing. The Canadiens successfully navigate 80.8% of their shorthanded situations.
In addition, Jakub Dobes (1-1-1, 4.43 GAA, .857 save percentage) is the projected starter in goal for the Canadiens.
Capitals Betting Trends
- Capitals are 7-1 in their last 8 vs. Eastern Conference
- Capitals are 5-1 in their last 6 home games
The Capitals had won three of four games to open the season but had some defensive lapses Sunday at home against the Kraken. Washington saw those issues continue on the road in Raleigh as they were doubled up by the Hurricanes Tuesday
On Tuesday night, Boone Jenner opened the scoring in the first period with his third goal of the year. After Carolina tied the score, Justin Holl’s first of the year made it a 2-1 game. That was the high point for the Capitals, who gave up the tying goal late in the second period. In addition, they were outscored 2-0 in the third for the defeat. Logan Thompson made 31 saves for Washington, who faced a 35-22 disadvantage in shots, in the loss.
Washington stands 10th in goals per game by averaging 3.17 goals per contest in the early going. The Capitals are tied for 15th in goals allowed by giving up an average of three goals per game this season. Washington is tied for 22nd in the league with the man advantage as they convert 15.4% of their power play opportunities. The Capitals are above average in the penalty killing department, ranking tied for 9th as they successfully navigate 88.2% of their shorthanded situations.
Meanwhile, with Thompson starting Tuesday, it’s expected that Charlie Lindgren (0-1-0, 2.08 GAA, .931 save percentage) gets the call here.
Canadiens vs. Capitals Prediction: Under 6.5 (-105)
Both teams have been up and down offensively so far this season. In addition, each team has the issue of playing the second game of a back-to-back situation. Each side has to travel in for this contest as the Capitals were in Carolina Tuesday while Montreal was at home. We’ve seen the under hit in six of the last 10 meetings between the teams. With both teams dealing with a little fatigue and the Capitals playing their third game in four nights, look for a more defensive struggle here. That keeps this one under the total.
More Canadiens vs. Capitals Picks, Props and Best Bets
- Cole Caufield, Canadiens, Anytime Goal Scorer: FanDuel, +135 Caufield tallied in regulation and the shootout against Buffalo Tuesday night in Montreal’s previous game. For the season, he now has three goals and one assist for four points. In addition, he has 24 shots on goal and 40 shot attempts in the first six games.Caufield is one of the top scoring threats for the Canadiens. If Montreal is going to do some damage, one has to think that he’s going to be involved. After all, he scored 51 times a season ago. I’ll back him here at slightly better odds than he was getting Tuesday.
- Alex Ovechkin, Capitals Over 0.5 Points: Hard Rock, -120 As we mentioned before, this season is the end of the line for Ovechkin, the league’s all-time regular season goal scorer. He has 930 career goals in the regular season. In the first six games of the year, he has an assist with 10 shots on goal and 28 shot attempts.Ovechkin has scored at least 30 goals in all but one season during his career in the NHL. Even in the COVID-shortened campaign, he mustered 24 goals in 45 games. In his career, he has 44 goals and 32 assists in 63 regular season games against the Canadiens. In addition, he averages better than a point per game (866 points in 787 games) at the Capital One Arena in the regular season. He gets on the stat sheet here.
- Alex Tuch, Capitals Over 2.5 Shots on Goal: FanDuel, +122 Tuch had a good season last year with Buffalo but rather than sign him to a new deal, the Sabres traded him in the offseason to the Capitals. He scored at least 33 goals in three of the last four seasons before the deal. Tuch has three goals, 16 shots on goals and 29 shot attempts so far on the year. He’ll have his chances in this contest.
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- Date: Wednesday, October 14, 2026
- Start Time: 7:30 pm ET
- Location: Capital One Arena, Washington, D.C.
- TV and Streaming Options: ESPN+
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