Conn Smythe Trophy Odds Tighten After Hurricanes Even Stanley Cup Final

The Carolina Hurricanes picked up a huge win on Wednesday night, taking Game 4 against the Vegas Golden Knights and knotting the Stanley Cup Final at two games apiece.

Not only did Carolina avoid falling into a 3-1 deficit, but the Hurricanes also effectively regained home-ice advantage with two of the next three games set to be played in Carolina. That has a massive impact on the series itself, but it also has a drastic impact on the Conn Smythe Trophy race.

Entering Game 4, Mitch Marner appeared to be running away with the honors. The Golden Knights star had become a heavy favorite, and with Vegas holding a 2-1 series lead, it felt like both the Stanley Cup and playoff MVP were trending toward the Golden Knights.

That changed quickly, and several Hurricanes players are closing in.

• Mitch Marner (Vegas Golden Knights): -115 via FanDuel
• Taylor Hall (Carolina Hurricanes): +390 via FanDuel
• Logan Stankoven (Carolina Hurricanes): +390 via FanDuel
• Jordan Staal (Carolina Hurricanes): +600 via FanDuel
• Jackson Blake (Carolina Hurricanes): +4000 via FanDuel

Marner is still the favorite at -115, but Taylor Hall and Logan Stankoven are both just behind him at +390. That means if the Hurricanes are able to come back and win this series, those two appear to be the current frontrunners on Carolina’s side.

Jordan Staal is also firmly in the mix at +600, while Jackson Blake remains a longer shot at +4000. So while Marner is still at the top of the board, the next four players listed are all Hurricanes.

That’s what makes this market so interesting.

The fact that Hall and Stankoven are both +390 doesn’t necessarily mean they’re much less likely to win the award than Marner from a pure performance standpoint. It’s more a reflection of how spread out Carolina’s case currently is. The Hurricanes have multiple players who could still build a legitimate Conn Smythe argument if they win the Stanley Cup.

For Vegas, there’s no real split in the market. Marner is the only Golden Knights player seriously in the conversation right now, which naturally inflates his odds. If Vegas wins the Stanley Cup, oddsmakers are essentially telling us that Marner is overwhelmingly likely to win the Conn Smythe Trophy.

For Carolina, it’s more open.

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Hall and Stankoven currently lead the way, while Staal remains close enough to make things interesting. If the Hurricanes win, the award could come down to who delivers the biggest moments over the final two or three games.

At this point, it’s fair to call this a three-man race. Marner, Hall and Stankoven are the frontrunners, with Staal lurking just behind them.

Another notable development is that goaltenders have been largely eliminated from the Conn Smythe conversation altogether. Earlier in the series, Frederik Andersen had a strong case as Carolina’s top candidate. But as the Final has gone on, the high-scoring nature of the games has pushed the market toward skaters.

Offense has dominated the biggest moments of the series, and at this point, it looks like a skater is going to win the award.

With the series tied 2-2, there are still at least two more games left to play, and the Conn Smythe race is nearly as competitive as the Stanley Cup Final itself. All it takes is one big performance, one game-winning goal or one signature moment to completely shift these odds again.

For now, Marner remains the favorite. But after Carolina’s Game 4 win, Hall and Stankoven are right there with him. Much more will change over the next two or three games, depending on how long the series goes, but this is where things stand as of now.