Conn Smythe Trophy Odds: Jordan Staal Takes Over as Favorite With Hurricanes Up 3-2

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Written By Nick Crain | Published at June 13, 2026
Jun 11, 2026; Raleigh, North Carolina, USA; Carolina Hurricanes center Jordan Staal (11) celebrates with center Sebastian Aho (20) after scoring during the first period against the Vegas Golden Knights in game five of the 2026 Stanley Cup Final at Lenovo Center. Mandatory Credit: Nathan Ray Seebeck-Imagn Images

The Carolina Hurricanes now hold the advantage in the Stanley Cup Final over the Vegas Golden Knights, and the latest Conn Smythe Trophy odds reflect that shift.

After taking a 3-2 series lead, Carolina is now just one win away from lifting the Stanley Cup. As a result, Jordan Staal has surged to the top of the odds board after Mitch Marner had held the favorite slot for much of the series.

Staal now sitting at -120 indicates that if the Hurricanes can wrap this series up relatively soon, he’s the clear candidate to win the award. At this point in the series, the market has sharpened significantly. There are only two games left at most, and potentially just one, so there isn’t as much time for the race to dramatically change.

That’s why the board has become much more clear-cut.

For Carolina, Staal has emerged as the player oddsmakers believe is most likely to be rewarded if the Hurricanes finish the job. Logan Stankoven and Taylor Hall still have upside in the series, but both are now longer shots compared to Staal. With five games already played, there just may not be enough runway left for either player to fully overtake him unless they deliver a massive closeout performance.

On the Vegas side, Marner is still clearly the Golden Knights’ top candidate by a wide margin. If Vegas is able to come back from a 3-2 deficit and win the Stanley Cup, Marner would almost certainly be the player lifting the Conn Smythe Trophy.

That’s what makes this board so interesting.

At this stage, betting on the Conn Smythe is almost becoming a direct bet on which team wins the Stanley Cup. If someone believes Vegas can come back and win the series, Marner at +220 presents a clear path. But if the expectation is that Carolina closes this out in either Game 6 or Game 7, Staal is now the obvious Hurricanes candidate.

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Earlier in the series, the race was much more open. Carolina had multiple players in the mix, with Stankoven, Hall and others all making cases at different points. But as the series has progressed, oddsmakers have narrowed the race considerably.

That’s typical this late in the Stanley Cup Final.

There are fewer games left, fewer opportunities for new narratives to emerge and a much clearer picture of which players have been most valuable to the teams still fighting for the Cup.

Ultimately, the latest odds are telling a very simple story. If Carolina wins the Stanley Cup, Staal is the favorite to win the Conn Smythe. If Vegas rallies and wins the series, Marner is still the clear Golden Knights option.

With the Hurricanes one win away, Staal has taken control of the race. But as this series has already shown, one more game could still change everything. There are fewer games left, fewer opportunities for new narratives to emerge and a much clearer picture of which players have been most valuable to the teams still fighting for the Cup.

That’s what makes Game 6 so fascinating. For Vegas, it’s do-or-die. For Carolina, it’s a chance to reach the mountaintop and finish off a championship run. Those are the moments where star power tends to matter most.

With the Hurricanes one win away, Staal has taken control of the race. But with the Golden Knights facing elimination, Marner still has one more opportunity to deliver a legacy-defining performance and shift the entire conversation again.

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