7 Thoughts Before Betting Game 7: Oilers At Panthers NHL Stanley Cup Final Odds

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Written By Evan Scrimshaw | Last Updated
nhl stanley cup odds

The best two words in sports are here: Game 7. Five more make me feel warm and fuzzy inside: of the Stanley Cup Final. At 8 p.m. ET Monday night, the Edmonton Oilers try to become the fifth team in NHL history to come back from down 3-0 in a best-of-seven series, and the first to do so in a Cup Final since 1942. Despite Florida being on home ice, NHL Stanley Cup odds basically make it a coin flip, with the Panthers to win and Oilers on the moneyline.

We’ve supplied the best available odds across sportsbooks below, and I’ve supplied seven thoughts before making my prediction for the game

NHL Stanley Cup Game 7 Odds

Make sure to check out the best sports betting sites before participating in NHL betting. With so many Game 7 options at sportsbooks, getting the best price maximizes your potential profits.

7 Thoughts Before Betting On Game 7

1. The home team has won six of the 10 Stanley Cup Final Game 7s, but …

This is only the fifth Cup to go the full 7 games in the Salary Cap era, and the 11th since the NHL expanded from 6 teams after the 1967 season. Home teams have only won six-of-10 Game 7s; however, three straight have been won by the road team.

NHL Stanley Cup Final Game 7 History

YearRoad TeamHome TeamWinner
1971Montreal CanadiensChicago BlackhawksMontreal Canadiens
1987Philadelphia FlyersEdmonton OilersEdmonton Oilers
1994Vancouver CanucksNew York RangersNew York Rangers
2001New Jersey DevilsColorado AvalancheColorado Avalanche
2003Anaheim DucksNew Jersey DevilsNew Jersey Devils
2004Calgary FlamesTampa Bay LightningTampa Bay Lightning
2006Edmonton OilersCarolina HurricanesCarolina Hurricanes
2009Pittsburgh PenguinsDetroit Red WingsPittsburgh Penguins
2011Boston BruinsVancouver CanucksBoston Bruins
2019St. Louis BluesBoston BruinsSt. Louis Blues

2. Teams That Force A Game 7 After Being Down 3-0 Don’t Always Win Series

There have been nine other times where a team down 3-0 has forced a Game 7 in NHL history, and teams on the comeback trail have won four of those nine series. In the Salary Cap era, those teams are 2-2. To the extent there could be “momentum”, the very small sample sizes available do not suggest that there is a historically useful signal in the data.

As for this case, Edmonton has outscored Florida 18-5 in the last three games. Florida is 2-1 on home ice in this series and 8-4 overall this postseason. Edmonton is 7-5 on the road in the playoffs. The Oilers lost Game 1 and 2 in Florida and won Game 5.

3. Leon Draisaitl May Finally Be Himself

It’s very obvious that Draisaitl, who’s been wearing a splint on his hand since at least the Dallas series, hasn’t been himself in recent weeks. This series hasn’t seen him score, and his two points prior to Game 6 were in the 8-1 blowout win in Game 4. In Edmonton, however, he played his best game of the series. He didn’t get a goal, but his filthy pass to Warren Foegele to open the scoring set the tone for the Oilers.

Draisaitl kept the Oilers alive in the first couple of rounds but has been surpassed as the most valuable Oiler by McDavid. That said, the Oilers did win Game 6 without a point or even a shot from McDavid, and getting that early lead allowed that. If the Oilers want to bring the Cup back through Canadian customs and keep it north of the border for the first time since the 1993 Montreal Canadiens, one more key contribution from Draisaitl will be hugely important.

I’ve bet Anytime Goalscorer odds for Draisaitl in Game 7, as I expect that contribution. His best available odds to do so are:

4. Bobrovsky’s Turned Back Into A Pumpkin

Bobrovsky has been one of the least consistent goalies in the last decade of the NHL, with the ability to amaze and frustrate fans in equal measure. This series is a great microcosm of the Bobrovsky experience, with the Russian netminder stealing Game 1 before bleeding goals in Games 4-6.

Bobrovsky posted a .953 Save% in the first three games, which has dipped all the way to a .793 Save% in the three games since. He’s gone from being the best goalie in the world to unplayable, and yet he’s also somehow their best chance at winning.

In his NHL promos post, Eli Hershkovich noted the Panthers have gone as far as giving him the last practice of the season off to try and get him right for one of the biggest games in NHL history.

5. Connor McDavid Is Winning Conn Smythe No Matter What

McDavid has dragged Edmonton to places it had no business being before, but this is the most impressive feat. Back-to-back four-point games in Games 4 and 5 brought this series back to Alberta. While McDavid was quiet in Game 6, he likely won’t be in Game 7. McDavid’s so good that he will win the Conn Smythe win or lose. His odds of literally imply a greater than 95% probability to be the NHL’s postseason MVP.  

McDavid owns the record for most assists in a single postseason. He’s sixth all-time in points in a playoff run, and he’s the Cap-era leader. Adjusted for the fact that the 80s were so much more high-scoring in general, McDavid’s playoff run is the most impressive points tally in NHL history. 

The relative lack of performance from Draisaitl makes it even more clear how impressive McDavid’s Final has been. If you had said Draisaitl would have three assists in this series, everybody would have said the Oilers wouldn’t be here. McDavid’s genius has them here anyway.

6. Will The Real Matthew Tkachuk Please Step Up?

The Florida star has been missing in action in this series, only netting one goal and three points so far. Beyond even the lack of production, Tkachuk’s been mostly invisible in this series. He hasn’t been Florida’s biggest problem by any means, and Bobrovsky has saved him from intense scrutiny, but he is a real problem for the Panthers.

They’re going to need Tkachuk to step up if they want to avoid an ignominious result.

7. The Oilers Still Have Not Hit Their Ceiling

The Panthers obviously have a lot of slack they could clean up, which, in theory, is a good thing:

  • Tkachuk can play better.
  • Bobrovsky has the ability to bounce back.
  • Florida has been able to shut down McDavid’s line intermittently.

But it’s not like Edmonton has really clicked on all cylinders in this series yet, either, and that’s the terrifying part.

The Oilers haven’t gotten McDavid and Draisaitl playing incredible hockey simultaneously in this series. Since Game 4 started, the Oilers have 18 goals, and 11 of them have been from outside the Oilers’ Big Five offensively. Even if the Oilers don’t get the depth scoring from Adam Henrique or Ryan McLeod, both of whom have multiple goals in this comeback, they still haven’t gotten a Draisaitl goal.

Yes, Edmonton has probably run well to get the sheer amount of depth scoring, but they won Game 6 with an assist from their two best players combined. They can step up even if the depth doesn’t show up.

Oilers goalie Stuart Skinner has posted a .942 Save% after failing to post a .900 or better in the first three games. If he reverts to what he was early in the series, Florida could have an opening. But in Games 4-7 of these playoffs so far, Skinner’s put up a 10-0 record and a .940 Save%. It’s probably luck to some degree that his worst performances have been early in multiple series, but Skinner has stepped up when the Oilers have needed him.

My Game 7 Prediction For NHL Stanley Cup Odds

At the start of the postseason, I looked at NHL Stanley Cup odds and wrote Florida was the best value. Before this series, I picked Florida in 7. On some level, I’m aware that it’s not smart to view three games as determinative. Hockey is a volatile sport. Panthers head coach Paul Maurice will have last line change and the ability to get his preferred matchups. Plus, the Panthers are still a very good team.

But the Oilers have been dominant the last three games without getting a vintage McDavid-Draisaitl against the world game. I can’t help but think that’s what Game 7 will be. Edmonton has not needed this era’s defining duo to be great together, and they’ve still gotten up off the mat.

I don’t trust Bobrovsky to find himself. I don’t trust Florida’s offense, and I don’t think the Panthers will be able to dodge the Connor and Leon bullets one more time.

At every point along this playoffs, I’ve thought Edmonton was a great team that was about to face one that’s better. You can’t say Florida’s definitely better anymore. I want to stick with my pre-series pick. I want to say Panthers in 7, but I can’t.

The Cup really might be coming home. This Canadian says, “Go Oilers!”

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Photo by associated press