10 NFL Player Prop Trends Bettors Need to Know Entering Week 6: Analysis

We’re through five weeks of the NFL season, and roles are shifting and becoming clearer. We can use the information available to identify the most important NFL player prop trends.

We’ll continue focusing on player usage rather than production to identify value in player props. Some of the usage metrics we prioritize for NFL Week 6 player props are:

• Snap share
• Carries
• Backfield opportunity
• Routes
• Targets
• Target share

Usage is generally more predictive than production, especially with small sample sizes. The following 10 trends are based on Weeks 1-5 and help us project Week 6.

NFL Player Prop Betting Trends to Consider

Trends don’t automatically make good bets. Use them as context, and find the best NFL player prop odds for value.

These trends can help bettors identify potential value in Week 6 NFL player props.

1. Javonte Williams’ Week 5 Box Score Hid an Elite Snap Share

Williams saw his lowest volume of the season in Week 5 against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, posting 62 yards and 1 touchdown on a season-low 14 touches. Although his volume was limited, this doesn’t tell the full story.

The veteran running back played a season-high 85% of the Dallas Cowboys’ snaps last week. He was the only true running back to record a touch, with Tyler Goodson playing only three total snaps.

The Cowboys were down 24-10 in the third quarter, forcing them to abandon the run. They ended up throwing the ball 42 times, leaving limited opportunities for their running backs.

Dallas is only a 1.5-point underdog against the Green Bay Packers this week, suggesting they’ll be able to run the ball throughout the game. Williams is coming off his highest percentage of snaps on the season, suggesting a bounce-back spot in Week 6.

2. Bucky Irving Regained Some of Tampa Bay’s High-Value Touches

I wrote about how Irving lost high-value touches in my Week 5 Trends article, and he immediately regained them.

He posted 165 yards and one touchdown on 21 carries against the Dallas Cowboys. He also added two receptions for 10 yards and one touchdown on three targets. Overall, he recorded 70% of the running back carries and 42.9% of the running back targets.

Irving was used in an elite goal-line role in Week 5 as well. He scored a rushing touchdown from the one-yard line, while also catching one from the five-yard line.

Kenneth Gainwell and Sean Tucker both saw snaps, and it looks like Irving’s role could be volatile from week to week throughout the season.

3. Woody Marks Could Have a Three-Down Role if David Montgomery Misses Week 6

Montgomery was injured early in Houston’s game against the Tennessee Titans, and Marks took on a workhorse role.

The young running back played 84.8% of the offensive snaps, recording 19 total touches. He saw 15 carries for 62 yards to go along with four receptions for 23 yards on four targets.

We’ve seen Marks in a workhorse role for the Texans before, and it’s clear they trust him on early downs and in passing situations. If Montgomery is out this week, he should see another massive workload in the Houston backfield.

4. Bijan Robinson Remains Atlanta’s Clear Centerpiece

Brian Robinson saw a big workload in Week 4, including three touchdowns, against the New Orleans Saints, but that didn’t lead to a larger role in Week 5.

Bijan Robinson played a season-high 81.3% of the offensive snaps in an overtime loss to the Baltimore Ravens. He posted 118 yards on 21 touches (24 opportunities), although he didn’t find the end zone.

Brian Robinson remains involved as Atlanta’s backup running back, but he isn’t stealing a ton of work from Bijan Robinson. The latter handled 75% of the running back opportunities against Baltimore.

5. Braelon Allen Has Been a True Workhorse Without Breece Hall

Allen has shifted into a workhorse role for the New York Jets without Hall. He’s played 93.8% and 85.7% of the offensive snaps without Hall in the lineup.

Allen’s workload is the most impressive part. He handled 100% of the running back touches (16) against the Chicago Bears in Week 4. He followed that up by seeing 87.5% of the running back opportunities (28) against the Cleveland Browns last week.

The young running back is playing on all downs, and he’ll continue to be a workhorse until Hall returns to the lineup.

6. Mike Evans Is Commanding Elite Targets Despite a Managed Snap Count

Evans hasn’t been playing full snaps for the San Francisco 49ers this season, but he’s had an elite role while on the field.

He’s only played 57.9% of the offensive snaps in 2026, and he hasn’t played more than 65% in any game since Week 1. Even with his limited snaps, he’s averaging 6.8 targets per game, and he owns a team-high 24.8% target share.

Evans is the only wide receiver for San Francisco to see over 100 air yards this season. He’s sitting at 472, which is substantially higher than the rest of San Francisco’s wide receivers combined. Overall, he’s seen 62.4% of the 49ers’ wide receiver air yards this season.

7. Zay Flowers Still Owns Baltimore’s Targets, But Huntley Has Changed Their Quality

Flowers saw an elite role with Tyler Huntley at quarterback against the Atlanta Falcons. He turned nine targets into eight receptions for 53 yards. Overall, he saw a 28.1% target share, which is close to what he’s been seeing this season.

The difference is the type of targets he’s seeing. Flowers only saw 43 air yards against Atlanta, which is a 4.8-yard aDOT. That’s a much lower aDOT than he’s seen this season, and it’s the first game where he’s seen less than 50 air yards.

He’s still getting elite volume, but those targets are coming much closer to the line of scrimmage. Consider the quarterback when researching NFL receiving props.

8. Isaiah Likely Has Become One of the NFL’s Highest-Volume Tight Ends

Likely followed head coach John Harbaugh to the New York Giants in the offseason. He’s immediately been thrust into one of the best tight end roles in the NFL.

He only saw 49.3% of the snaps in Week 1 against the Dallas Cowboys, but he’s playing 70% of the snaps this season. He’s also seen an NFL-high 29.5% target share among tight ends and a position-leading 351 air yards.

Likely’s seen his role grow over the last two weeks, as he continues to get more comfortable with Jameis Winston at quarterback. He totaled 18 receptions for 160 yards and 2 touchdowns on 25 targets against the Arizona Cardinals and Washington Commanders.

9. Jayden Daniels’ Rushing Role Survived His Elbow Injury

Daniels suffered an injury in Week 2 against the Dallas Cowboys, and he returned against the New York Giants last week. The biggest concern was how often he would run coming off another injury.

The injury didn’t inhibit his rushing at all, as he posted 103 yards and two touchdowns on a season-high nine carries. It was his best rushing performance of the season, flashing elite abilities in open space.

Daniels seeing nine rush attempts in his first game back from injury suggests he likely won’t be limited at all moving forward.

10. Green Bay’s Passing Game Is Concentrating Around Christian Watson and Matthew Golden

Green Bay’s been forced to throw the ball at one of the highest rates in the NFL, and Watson and Golden have been the two biggest beneficiaries.

Both receivers are playing roughly 80% of the offensive snaps this season. Golden’s totaled 604 air yards on 44 targets, while Watson owns 506 air yards on 40 targets. They’re the only two Packers wide receivers with at least 15 targets this season.

Tucker Kraft also has a major role in the passing game, but the offense runs through Watson and Golden.

How To Use NFL Player Prop Trends for Week 6 Betting

NFL player prop trends don’t automatically create bets. They should be used to identify markets that deserve more investigation.

Opportunity metrics – snaps, routes, carries, targets, etc. – are among the most important trends for identifying future value. They tend to be more predictive than previous production. It’s important to break down trends by usage and injury-related changes, efficiency, matchups, and game-script effects before placing wagers.

Check injury reports throughout the week, as some trends specifically rely on players missing games. Compare prices across sportsbooks. Line shopping is one of the most important parts of NFL prop betting. A sound NFL prop betting strategy still requires comparing usage trends to the available lines.

Final Thoughts: Target Shifting Roles, New Opportunities

We have five weeks worth of data for most players, and roles are becoming easier to identify. Players like Isaiah Likely and Mike Evans are trending up, while we need to take a more nuanced approach with players like Zay Flowers at the moment.

Opportunity is more repeatable than previous production, and we shouldn’t be chasing previous box scores. Instead, we should be finding the spots with the most repeatable opportunities.

Trends shouldn’t be the sole reason for placing bets, but they can help identify undervalued spots. Whether driven by injuries, new roles, or breakouts, you’ll need to research each trend further before betting.

We’re looking for markets that haven’t fully adjusted to these trends. Make sure you’re checking lines and the latest Week 6 NFL player prop odds before kickoff.